王志远^1,2,,
王江林³,
张诗茄⁴,
李凯⁵,
左瑞亭^2,6,
刘健⁷
1. 南京信息工程大学, 地球系统模拟与气候动力研究中心/大气灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气候灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
2. 南京雨后地软环境技术有限公司, 江苏 南京 210013
3. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000
4. 南京市环境卫生保障应急处置中心, 江苏 南京 210000
5. 浙江师范大学化学与生命科学学院, 浙江 金华 321004
6. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 江苏 南京 211101
7. 南京师范大学 地理科学学院, 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210023

基金项目: 科学技术部国家重点研究发展计划项目(批准号:2017YFA0603302)、国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41371209和41420104002)、江苏省高校自然科学研究重大项目(批准号:14KJA170002)和江苏高校优势学科建设项目(批准号:164320H116)共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 王志远, 男, 34岁, 工程师/博士后, 古气候模拟与全球环境变化, E-mail:wzy_xiao@163.com

中图分类号: P467;P534.63⁺2

收稿日期:2018-05-20
修回日期:2018-09-03
刊出日期:2018-11-25

Impact of different timescales on the characteristics and mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon: Based on the CESM results

Wang Zhiyuan^1,2,,
Wang Jianglin³,
Zhang Shijia⁴,
Li Kai⁵,
Zuo Ruiting^2,6,
Liu Jian⁷
1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu
2. Nanjing Star-Jelly Environmental Consultants Co. Ltd., Nanjing 210013, Jiangsu
3. Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu
4. Nanjing Environmental Health Emergency Response Center, Nanjing 210000, Jiangsu
5. Laboratory of Environmental Change and Palaeoecology, College of Chemistry and Life Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang
6. College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, Jiangsu
7. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environmental Evolution, Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base; School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu


MSC: P467;P534.63⁺2

--> Received Date: 20 May 2018
Revised Date: 03 September 2018
Publish Date: 25 November 2018


摘要
摘要:探究过去2000年北半球夏季风的演变过程，不仅有利用于在各个时间尺度上深化对全球季风系统的理解，也能够为预测未来季风发展和长期政策制定提供参考依据。然而，以往研究中对于不同时间尺度北半球夏季风系统强度探究较少，特别是其在不同时间尺度上的空间特征及响应机制如何?为此，文章利用国际上较为先进的通用地球系统模式CESM，在轨道参数、太阳辐射、火山活动、温室气体浓度和土地利用/覆盖的驱动下，进行了长达2000年的瞬变积分试验，并利用此结果分析了过去1500年来不同时间尺度上的北半球夏季风降水的变化特征及其可能成因机制。通过周期分析发现，北半球夏季风强度存在显著的年际（2~6年和8~9年）、年代-多年代际（11~13年、22~23年、37年、58年和66年）和百年际（186年、227年和341年）的周期波动；利用回归分析发现在年际尺度上，北半球夏季风降水在大部分印度半岛、孟加拉湾地区、西北太平洋季风区、北美季风区以及北非季风区表现较为一致；而在印度季风区的西南部和青藏高原的南部部分区域、北美季风区的南部以及东亚季风区的北部则表现出了与之相反的变化；在东亚季风区北部其响应特征并不显著。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的海表温度模态特征可能是影响年际尺度特征下北半球夏季风降水分配的主要原因；在多年代际时间尺度上，北半球夏季风降水在热带季风区对其响应较为显著且呈一致性变化。主要原因是南、北半球海表温度的空间分布差异致使热带辐合带（ITCZ）北移，而这种温度差异是由外强迫因子和气候系统内部振荡共同造成的；在百年际尺度上，北半球夏季风区域降水特征呈一致性变化，其主要是由于外强迫变化所致。
关键词: 过去2000年/
不同时间尺度/
北半球夏季风/
空间特征/
影响机制/
CESM

Abstract:Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM)is one of the most significant components of global monsoon, and the intensity of NHSM can affect food production and security of most people all over the world. Studying the different timescales of NHSM variations over the past 2000 years are not only benefits to understand the system of global monsoon, but also to predict the development of the NHSM and long-term policy-making. However, the most previous research is mainly focused on the NHSM temporal variations at different timescales, the spatial characteristics and mechanisms of NHSM are relatively fewer considered. Here is mainly focused on the following questions:Over the past 2000 years, what are the periodic signals of the NHSM intensity, and what are the spatial characteristics of the NHSM rainfall respond to different timescales?To address these issues, Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.0)is employed to conduct a transient simulation for the last 2000 years, which is forced by the reconstructions of total solar irradiation (TSI), Greenhouse gases (GHGs), volcanic forcing (VOL), land use and land cover (LUCC)and orbital changes. Firstly, the modeling outputs indicate that the simulated Northern Hemisphere summer temperature (NHST)variations show a good coherence with NHSM index over the past 1500 years after 31-yr smoothing. Secondly, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)is used to isolate the NHSM index variations on interdecadal to multi-centennial timescales. Then, the NHSM index variations are regressed on the corresponding sea surface temperatures and winds at 850 hPa to elucidate the possible mechanisms for the NHSM patterns at different timescales. The primary conclusions are as follows: (1)The NHSM rainfall exhibits significant periodicities of 2~6 and 8~9 years, multi-decadal periodicities of 11~13, 22~23, 37, 58 and 66 years and centennial periodicities of 186, 227 and 341 years (above 90% confidence level). (2)The NHSM rainfalls are positively consistent with interdecadal timescale in the monsoon regions of Indian, Bay of Bengal, northwest Pacific and North Africa over the past 1500 years, but have negative correlations in monsoon regions of southwest of Indian, southern North America and northern East Asian. A main reason for the distributions of the NHSM rainfall is the cyclical variations of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). (3)The NHSM rainfalls are associated with multi-decadal timescale over the most tropical regions due to the difference of surface air temperature between the North and South Hemisphere. This difference may be caused by the external and internal forcing. Over the extra tropical regions, such as the East Asian monsoon regions, the NHSM rainfalls are not sensitive to the variations of multi-decadal signals. (4)Over the most of the NHSM regions, the external forcing can affect the large-scale coherence of the precipitation variations response to the NHSM on the centennial to multi-centennial timescales.
Key words:different timescales/
the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon/
CESM/
past 2000 years/



PDF全文下载地址:

http://www.dsjyj.com.cn/data/article/export-pdf?id=dsjyj_11560