裴艳茜^1,2,,
邱海军^1,2,3,,,
胡胜^1,2,3,
邹强⁴,
杨冬冬^1,2,
张焱^1,2,
曹明明¹
1. 西北大学城市与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710127
2. 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710127
3. 西北大学地表系统与灾 害研究院, 陕西 西安 710127
4. 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 四川 成都 610041

基金项目: 科技部国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项项目——气候变化背景下中巴经济走廊山地灾害防灾减灾研究（批准号：YS2018YFGH000001）资助


详细信息

作者简介: 裴艳茜, 女, 26岁, 硕士研究生, 环境科学专业, E-mail:13152179231@163.com

通讯作者: 邱海军, E-mail:haijunqiu@nwu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P694

收稿日期:2018-07-09
修回日期:2018-09-05
刊出日期:2018-11-30

Susceptibility analysis of geo-hazards in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Pei Yanqian^1,2,,
Qiu Haijun^1,2,3,,,
Hu Sheng^1,2,3,
Zou Qiang⁴,
Yang Dongdong^1,2,
Zhang Yan^1,2,
Cao Mingming¹
1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, Shaanxi
2. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, Shaanxi
3. Institute of Earth Surface System and Hazards, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, Shaanxi
4. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan


More Information

Corresponding author: Qiu Haijun,E-mail:haijunqiu@nwu.edu.cn

MSC: P694

--> Received Date: 09 July 2018
Revised Date: 05 September 2018
Publish Date: 30 November 2018


摘要
摘要:中巴经济走廊是"一带一路"建设的旗舰项目，对中巴经济走廊地质灾害进行敏感性分析与区划，可为中巴经济走廊地质灾害的防治提供参考。基于此，文章选取高程、坡度、地形起伏度、地震密度、多年平均降雨量、距断裂带的距离、地层岩性、距河流的距离和距公路的距离等9个指标，采用加权信息量模型和证据权法，综合分析中巴经济走廊地质灾害敏感性。并运用ROC曲线验证对比两种模型分析的敏感性结果，选取精度较高的模型分析的地质灾害敏感性进行研究区区划，最后对区划结果进行相关验证。研究结果表明：1）中巴经济走廊容易诱发地质灾害的条件为：高程在2660~3470 m之间，坡度为29°~35°，地形起伏度在45~70 m之间，地震密度在2~4个/10² km²之间，多年平均降雨量在430~530 mm之间，距断裂带距离小于5 km，地层岩性为软岩和极软岩，距河流距离小于2 km，距公路距离小于2 km。2）基于加权信息量模型和证据权法分析的中巴经济走廊地质灾害敏感性精度分别为0.821和0.795，表明本研究选取的地质灾害敏感性分析模型具有较高的准确性，但是运用加权信息量模型分析的敏感性更符合实际情况。因此，运用加权信息量模型分析的结果进行研究区地质灾害敏感性区划。3）研究区地质灾害不敏感区、低敏感区、中等敏感区、高度敏感区和极高敏感区所占面积比分别为26.3%、23.1%、21.6%、18.8%和10.2%，以中、低敏感性为主；且敏感性呈现出南低北高的空间分布特征。4）运用实地调研的地质灾害点对本文区划的中巴经济走廊地质灾害敏感性结果验证，表明区划的结果具有一定的科学、可信性，可以为中巴经济走廊重大工程建设、交通线路选线、城市规划、资源开发等方面提供科学依据。
关键词: 地质灾害/
敏感性/
加权信息量模型/
证据权法/
中巴经济走廊

Abstract:The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a channel consisting of roads, railways, oil and gas pipelines, optical cables and electric power lines. From the north of Kashgar Prefecture of China to the south of Gwadar Port of Pakistan, the total length of the corridor is 3, 000 km. The CPEC is guided by the Karakoram Highway (KKH), which runs through the Pamirs Plateau. As a bridge of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the corridor plays an important role in collaborating among China, South Asia, and the Middle East. Also, the CPEC is the pilot and the major project of the Belt and Road initiative. On the other hand, considering the wide areas the CPEC covers, it is important to take the great differences of diversities in to account, especially considering the natural environment, complex geological conditions, frequent seismic activities, and extremely poor regional stability, resulting in many geo-hazards in the region, and widespread mountainous disasters in the region, which is seriously threatening the construction and livelihood security of the CPEC. Therefore, scientific and accurate analysis of the susceptibility of geo-hazards in this region has become a major and urgent practical issue facing the construction of the CPEC.
Based on the background, this paper selects nine indexes of elevation, slope, terrain relief, seismic density, multi-year average rainfall, distance from the fault, lithology, distance from the river, and distance from the road. The weighted information model and weight of evidence model to comprehensive analysis the susceptibility of geo-hazards in the CPEC. Using a ROC curve to verify the results of the two models, and to select more accurate results for the study area susceptible division. The several results indicated in the research are going to be discussed in the following passage. First of all, conditions that are likely to induce geo-hazards are:elevations between 2660 m and 3470 m, slopes between 29° and 35°, terrain relief between 45 m and 70 m, density of the earthquake between 2 and 4 per 10² km², multi-year average rainfall between 430 mm and 530 mm, distance from the fault is less than 5 km, conditions such as the lithology is soft and softest lithology, the distance from the river is less than 2 km, and the distance from the road is also less than 2 km likely to induce the geo-hazards. In addition, the susceptibility of geo-hazards in the CPEC is negatively related to the distance from rivers, roads, fault zones and lithology. The condition where is closer to river, road and fault is easier, the lithology is the softer, the more likely to cause geo-hazards. The seismic density shows a positive correlation with geo-hazards, the greater the seismic density, the higher the frequency of geo-hazards. Elevation, slope, topographic relief, and multi-year average rainfall do not show a full positive or negative correlation to geo-hazards, but play a role within a specific range. Secondly, the susceptibility accuracy of geo-hazards in CPEC based on the weighted information model and weight of evidence model is 0.821 and 0.795, respectively. It can be shown that the weighted information model assesses the result has high accuracy, therefore the result based on weighted information model would be used to zone. Thirdly, proportions of what are 26.3%, 23.1%, 21.6%, 18.8%, and 10.2% respectively to five susceptible zones (insusceptible zone, low susceptible zone, medium susceptible zone, high susceptible zone and extremely high susceptible zone) in CPEC, which shows the rate of geo-hazards in the study area centers of medium and low susceptibility, and the spatial distribution characteristics of south lower than north. Finally, the geo-hazards points of field investigation were used to verify the zoned susceptibility of the geo-hazards in the CPEC. It shows that the results of the zoning have objectivity and credibility, and can provide scientific basis for major engineering construction, traffic line selection, urban planning and resource development in the CPEC.
Key words:geo-hazards/
susceptibility/
information model/
weight-of-evidence model/
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor



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