荣艳淑,,
殷雨婷
河海大学水文水资源学院，210098，江苏南京
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0601504)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(51420105014)；国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(41605043)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2017B00114)
详细信息
通讯作者:荣艳淑（1961—），女，教授，博士. 研究方向：水文气象和气候变化. e-mail：ysron@hhu.edu.cn
中图分类号:TV121计量
文章访问数:92
HTML全文浏览量:57
PDF下载量:10
被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2019-11-09
网络出版日期:2020-07-29
刊出日期:2020-06-01
Influence of Three Gorges Dam construction on runoff distribution in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River
Ruirui FENG,Yanshu RONG,,
Yuting YIN
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, 210098, Nanjing，Jiangsu，China
摘要
HTML全文
图
参考文献
相关文章
施引文献
资源附件
访问统计
摘要
摘要:以三峡工程蓄水运行的 2003 年为分界点，利用长江上游流域寸滩、武隆、宜昌3站1951—2016 年的月径流资料，利用Copula函数，定量分析了三峡水库蓄水前后对长江上游多站径流的联合分布的影响. 研究结果表明：1）三峡水库建设前后，无论2个还是3个站的径流联合分布均发生了变化. 其中，寸滩–宜昌2站联合分布没有变化，但分布函数的参数略有减小；武隆–宜昌的联合分布从Gaussian Copula转变为Gumble Copula型；寸滩–武隆–宜昌的3站联合分布由Gumble Copula变成Gaussian Copula型. 2）三峡建库后，在相同的概率水平下，3站对应的径流量均比建库前明显减少；在相同重现期下，3站对应的径流量同样比建库前明显减少，其中，宜昌站径流减小率最大，寸滩次之，武隆最小. 这表明三峡建库后，对坝下宜昌站径流的影响高于三峡大坝上游的寸滩、武隆2站.
关键词:联合分布/
Copula函数/
三峡大坝/
宜昌/
寸滩/
武隆
Abstract:Monthly runoff data at Cuntan, Wulong and Yichang stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951-2016, and Copula function were used to analyze quantitatively impact of Three Gorges Reservoir on joint distribution of runoff from multiple stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River before and after impoundments. It was found that after construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, joint distribution of runoff changed at some stations. Joint distribution at Cuntan and Yichang stations did not change, but the parameters of distribution function decreased slightly. Joint distribution at Wulong and Yichang changed from Gaussian Copula to Gumble Copula type. Joint distribution at Cuntan, Wulong and Yichang changed from Gumble Copula to Gaussian Copula type. After construction of the reservoir, runoff at these three stations was significantly reduced at similar probability level. Corresponding runoff at these three stations also decreased significantly in the same return period. Yichang station showed the largest runoff reduction rate, with Cuntan following, with Wulong the smallest. Three Gorges Reservoir therefore impacts runoff at downstream Yichang station higher than upstream Cuntan and Wulong stations.
Key words:joint distribution/
Copulas functions/
Three Gorges Dam/
Yichang/
Cuntan/
Wulong
