田吉吉¹, 李佳庆¹, 郑爽², 韩文轩¹, 李明财³
AuthorsHTML:田吉吉¹, 李佳庆¹, 郑爽², 韩文轩¹, 李明财³
AuthorsListE:Tian Zhe ¹, Li Jiaqing¹, Zheng Shuang ², Han Wenxuan¹, Li Mingcai³
AuthorsHTMLE:Tian Zhe ¹, Li Jiaqing¹, Zheng Shuang ², Han Wenxuan¹, Li Mingcai³
Unit:1. 天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300350；2. 天津大学理学院，天津 300350；3. 天津市气候中心，天津 300074
Unit_EngLish:1．School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
2．School of Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
3．Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, China
Abstract_Chinese:为以概率方式确定空调室外计算温度, 提出用广义帕累托分布(GPD)描述室外空气湿球和干球极端高温数据概率分布的方法．以天津市30年气象数据为基础, 建立了极端高温数据的GPD模型, 以此确定了历年平均不保证50 h的空调室外计算温度．从数据采集频率、气候变化和地域气候类型适用性3个角度验证了GPD方法的适用性．结果表明：GPD密度曲线与经验分布曲线吻合度较高, 对天津市而言, GPD法确定的空调室外计算温度与“规范法”差值不大于0.1 ℃; GPD法对气象数据采集频率不敏感, 分别以逐时和定时数据为统计基础确定的室外计算温度相差最大的是干球温度, 差值为0.1 ℃; 此外, GPD法可以准确反映气候变暖带来的室外计算温度变化, 并且对不同地区不同特征的气候也具有良好的适应性．综上, GPD法可以用于空调室外计算温度的统计确定．
Abstract_English:To determine the air-conditioning outdoor design temperature，the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) was used to study the probability distribution of outdoor air extremely high wet- and dry-bulb temperatures observation data. Firstly，taking Tianjin as an example，based on the 30 years climate data，the GPD model of extremely high temperatures was established and the air-conditioning outdoor design temperatures were calculated with 50 h non-guaranteed. And then，the applicability of GPD method was verified from three perspectives: data acquisition frequency，climate change and climate types. The results indicate that GPD density curve has a good agreement with empirical distribution curve in Tianjin. The difference in outdoor air-conditioning design temperatures detween GPD method and standard method is no more than 0.1 ℃. GPD method is insensitive to data acquisition frequency. Besides，the design temperatures on the bases of hourly data and timing data are calculated by GPD method，the biggest difference being 0.1 ℃ for dry-bulb temperature. GPD method can reflect the influence of climate change and is suitable for describing the probability distribution of meteorological parameters with different climate features. In summary，GPD method can be applied to statistical determination of summer outdoor design temperatures of air-conditioning.
Keyword_Chinese:空调室外计算温度; 广义帕累托分布; 极值分布; 极端高温数据
Keywords_English:air-conditioning outdoor design temperature; generalized Pareto distribution; extreme value distribu- tion; extremely high temperature

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