胡石建^1,2,3,4
1.中国科学院海洋研究所海洋环流与波动重点实验室, 山东 青岛 266071;2.中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心, 山东 青岛 266071;3.青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室 海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室, 山东 青岛 266237;4.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

摘要:
地球气候系统一方面在内部动力过程（尤其是海洋动力过程）的调控下存在强烈的自然周期或准周期振荡，另一方面在人类温室气体持续排放等重要外强迫的作用下而存在长期变化趋势。如何在物理量的趋势估计中去除掉自然周期性振荡的影响，是气候变化研究中的关键科学问题之一。针对该问题，本文基于理想化的数学模型，结合印尼贯穿流多年代际趋势的实际研究工作，提出了滑动趋势法，以去除或减少自然周期振荡对趋势估计的影响。本文对滑动趋势法的基本原理和效果进行了阐述，并通过理论模型对该方法进行了检验，结果表明滑动趋势法可以得到接近真实趋势的估计值。利用滑动趋势法估算的印尼贯穿流流量在1985~2010年间的多年代际趋势比粗估趋势大了近1倍，这对理解印尼贯穿流和印太气候系统具有重要意义。该方法具有普适性，可在地球气候变化研究乃至其他关于物理量的趋势估算中广泛使用。
关键词:趋势估计气候变化自然振荡印尼贯穿流年代际变化
DOI：10.11759/hykx20180723002
分类号:P733
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（41776018，91858101）；中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目（QYZDB-SSW-SYS023）

A trend estimation method considering natural climate fluctuation and its application in the study of multi-decadal trend of Indonesian Throughflow
HU Shi-jian^1,2,3,4
1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;2.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;3.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract:
The earth's climate system has strong natural and periodic or quasiperiodic oscillation because of adjustments by its internal dynamics especially ocean dynamics. In addition, the climate system possesses long-term trend as a result of external forcing such as anthropic greenhouse gas emission. Eliminating the influence of natural and periodic oscillations in estimating the long-term trends is a key concern in climate change studies. To remove or reduce the influence of natural and periodic oscillations on trend estimation, we propose a method——the running trend method, based on an idealized mathematical model. The fundamental theory and its feasibility are expounded. We tested the method using the idealized theoretical model, and the result shows that the method can realized an estimation very close to the true trend. The running trend method is applied to estimate the trend of Indonesian Throughflow transport during 1985~2010, and the results suggest that the true trend is nearly double of the rough trend estimation, which is of much importance in understanding the Indonesian Throughflow and Indo-Pacific climate system. The running trend method is of clear universality, and it can be widely used in the study of the earth's climate change and trend estimations of any variables.
Key words:trend estimationclimate changenatural oscillationIndonesian Throughflowdecadal variability





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