高松^1,2, 钟山^1,2, 李亚汝^1,2, 商杰^1,2, 刘清容^1,2, 陈胜舰^1,2, 尚恒帅³
1.国家海洋局北海预报中心, 山东 青岛 266061;2.山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室, 山东 青岛 266061;3.山东科技大学, 山东 青岛 266590

摘要:
山东省海洋自然灾害类型多、发生频率高、活动强度大、影响范围广，研究以山东省5种主要海洋自然灾害为评估对象，依据区域灾害评估系统理论，基于叠加分析原理建立包括风暴潮、海浪、海冰、海平面上升和海啸等5种灾害的海洋自然灾害综合危险性评估体系，采用层次分析方法确定各灾种的权重系数，并据此对海洋灾害综合危险进行等级划分。结果表明，山东省沿海4个区县处于高危险区，6个区县处于较高危险区，9个区县处于中危险区，17个区县处于低危险区。本方法克服了单一灾种评估方法的局限性和片面性，使评估结果更加科学、合理，且方法可行，评估结果能够为山东省的海洋经济建设布局、海洋资源开发和规划、海洋防灾减灾等工作提供科学依据。
关键词:海洋自然灾害危险性综合评估山东省
DOI：10.11759/hykx20180131001
分类号:P76
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC1402000）

A comprehensive study on the hazard assessment of marine disasters in Shandong Province
GAO Song^1,2, ZHONG Shan^1,2, LI Ya-ru^1,2, SHANG Jie^1,2, LIU Qing-rong^1,2, CHEN Sheng-jian^1,2, SHANG Heng-shuai³
1.North Sea Marine Forecast Center of State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;2.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Environment and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Qingdao 266061, China;3.Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
Abstract:
Based on the regional disaster assessment system theory, a comprehensive hazard assessment system targeted at five marine disasters—storm surges, waves, sea ice, rising sea levels and tsunami—was formed based on the following principle of superposition analysis. Weighting coefficients for each of these marine disasters were obtained by analytical hierarchy process, based on which the risk of marine disasters were classified. The results indicate that three counties/districts in Shandong Province are high-risks areas, seven are relatively high-risks areas, nice of medium risks, and 17 of low risks. This method overcomes the shortcomings and limitations of assessments for a single disaster, and it also makes the assessment results more scientific, rational and feasible, thus, this method provides scientific support for the development and layout of the marine economy, marine resource development and planning as well as marine disaster prevention and mitigation in Shandong Province.
Key words:marine disastershazardscomprehensive assessmentsShandong Province





PDF全文下载地址:

点我下载PDF