孙剑锋¹, 秦伟山^1,2, 曹万云¹, 李世泰¹, 孙海燕¹
1.鲁东大学 资源与环境工程学院;2.中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所

摘要:
海岛经济体脆弱性是指在海岛经济体发展过程中, 资源、社会、经济和生态环境等方面呈现出不同程度的可持续发展能力的损坏。从时间序列的视角对海岛经济体脆弱性动态演变过程及发生机理进行研究是针对性提出海岛脆弱性治理的重要途径。作者以舟山市为例, 从资源-生态环境-经济-社会综合研究视角, 采用综合指数法对1996～2016年舟山市脆弱性动态演变特征进行分析。研究表明:1996～2016年, 舟山市资源脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性总体呈下降趋势, 生态环境脆弱性“先升后降再升”, 呈周期性变化; 由各子系统对综合脆弱性的影响程度来看, 综合脆弱性由生态环境脆弱性和社会脆弱性主导向各子系统均衡影响转变; 舟山市脆弱性发展演变过程是自然资源条件、经济发展方式、政府宏观调控相互影响、相互制约的结果, 并依据其驱动机制提出相应的应对措施。
关键词:海岛经济体脆弱性综合评价动态演变舟山市
DOI：10.11759/hykx2017122003
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41501129); 山东省软科学研究计划项目(2017RKB01079)

Comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution of vulnerability of island economies——Taking Zhoushan as an example
SUN Jian-feng,QIN Wei-shan,CAO Wan-yun,LI Shi-tai,SUN Hai-yan
Abstract:
The vulnerability of island economies is the damage to sustainable development of resources, society, economy and ecological environment in the process of island economic development. From the perspective of time series, the research on the dynamic evolution process and mechanism of island economic vulnerability is an important way to address the vulnerability management of islands. Taking Zhoushan as an example, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of Zhoushan’s vulnerability from 1996 to 2016 from the perspective of resources, ecology, environment, economy and society. Research shows that: in 1996—2016, Zhoushan city resource vulnerability, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability the overall downward trend, the ecological environment vulnerability increases firstly and then decreases, a periodic variation; by each subsystem the influence degree of the comprehensive vulnerability, comprehensive vulnerability by fragile ecological environment and social vulnerability leading to various subsystems influence the equilibrium transition; the evolution process of Zhoushan city development is the vulnerability of natural resources, economic development, government macro-control of mutual influence and mutual restriction results, and on the basis of the driving mechanism put forward corresponding countermeasures.
Key words:vulnerability of island economycomprehensive evaluationdynamic evolutionZhoushan





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