靳双龙¹, 陈 建²
1.中国电力科学研究院有限公司;2.北京应用气象研究所

摘要:
针对海上新能源开发的环境风险问题, 基于中国近海的海面风场、海浪和热带气旋资料, 统计其高值频率、概率极值、平均值、气候变化趋势等指标; 利用层次分析法和互反判断矩阵计算近地层大风、大浪、热带气旋危险性指数, 并对三者的综合危险性指数进行区划, 为中国近海海上风能、波浪能、海流能、潮汐能等开发活动规避自然风险提供参考。研究表明: 海上新能源开发环境风险偏高的海区包括南海北部、吕宋海峡、菲律宾海中北部等, 该海域热带气旋引发局地大风巨浪或将能量经吕宋海峡向南海传播形成大浪区; 风险居中的海区包括北部湾、南海中部、菲律宾海中南部、台湾周边沿岸海域、东海中部等, 这里虽然有台湾海峡、越南东南部海域等盛行大风区, 但其相对热带气旋来说风险较低; 风险偏低的海区包括渤海、黄海大部、东海西北部、南海南部等, 这里风浪的各项指标都很低, 热带气旋的直接和间接影响几乎为零。此外, 利用有效风速出现频率、波浪能开发有效时间占比, 分别进行风能、波浪能资源区划, 给出海上风能、波浪能的资源与风险综合区划。
关键词:中国近海新能源开发环境风险区划层次分析法互反判断矩阵
DOI：10.11759/hykx20170810001
分类号:
基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目(2015.01～2017.12)

Regionalization of environmental risk for renewable energy development in China’s coastal seas
JIN Shuang-long,CHEN Jian
Abstract:
In the development of renewable energy in China’s coastal seas, the environmental risks must be assessed. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and reciprocal judgment matrix, in this study, we calculated indicators such as the high-value frequency, extreme value, average value, and climate change trend, as well as the integrated risk indices of three typical disastrous weather conditions, i.e., strong sea surface winds, big sea waves, and tropical cyclones. To help avoid the associated natural risks, we then used these three risk indices to comprehensively regionalize the risk in developing renewable energy such as wind, wave, ocean-current, and tidal energies in China’s coastal waters. Research has shown that high-risk areas include the northern South China Sea, Luzon Strait, and the northern Philippines Sea, where tropical cyclones occur frequently. These cyclones trigger local strong winds and big waves, or spread energy through the Luzon Strait to the South China Sea, thereby indirectly triggering big waves. Moderate risk areas include the North Bay, central South China Sea, central Philippines Sea, the coastal waters surrounding Taiwan, and the central East China Sea, over parts of which strong winds tend to prevail but are not as risky as tropical cyclones. Low risk areas include the Bohai Sea, most parts of the Yellow Sea, the northwestern East China Sea, and the southern South China Sea, where each of the wind or wave indicators is very low, and the direct and indirect effects of tropical cyclones are negligible. We regionalized the wind-energy and wave-energy resources based on their indicators, i.e., effective wind speed frequency and effective time ratio of wave-energy development, respectively. In this paper, we present a comprehensive regionalization of both the resources and risks of wind energy and wave energy at sea.
Key words:China’s coastal seasrenewable energy developmentenvironmental risk regionalizationanalytic hierarchy processreciprocal judgment matrix





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