摘要:以增温为主的气候变化对粮食产量具有显著影响。本文利用关中地区1983—2016年的站点气象要素、粮食产量统计数据和跨部门影响模型比较计划（Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project，ISIMIP）中4个全球气候模式2021—2050年降水、气温输出结果，采用突变分析、趋势分析和敏感性分析等方法，从粮食单产、气候产量和气候生产潜力等方面系统分析了我国主要粮食产地之一的陕西关中粮食产量对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明：1）1983—2016年，关中地区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势，升温速率为0.05℃·a-1（P < 0.01），其中，最高气温的上升起主要作用；年降水量则以-1 mm·a-1的速率呈下降趋势，但不显著。2）关中地区多年平均粮食单产为3 599 kg·hm-2，且逐年波动上升，速率为57.17 kg·hm-2·a-1（P < 0.001）。关中多地的气候产量与气温呈正相关，气温的升高一定程度上促进了关中气候产量的增加，但并不显著（平均增加率为0.85 kg·hm-2·a-1）。渭河关中地区多年以来的气候生产潜力为7 000~12 000 kg·hm-2，受气温波动的影响，1995年后的平均气候生产潜力高于1995年之前，是整个研究时段气候生产潜力呈现增加趋势的主要时期。3）未来30年里（2021—2050年），关中地区在RCP2.6情景下的平均气候生产潜力略高于RCP6.0情景，但前者的生产潜力呈逐年下降趋势，后者则表现出逐年上升趋势。关中地区的作物对气候资源的利用空间还很大，且气候变化对关中粮食产量具有促进作用，但此正向作用并不是持续不变的。
关键词:气候变化/
粮食产量/
气候生产潜力/
全球气候模式/
关中地区
Abstract:Climate change dominated by warming has a significant impact on grain yield. From an examination of grain yield, climatic yield and climate potential productivity (CPP), this paper systematically analyzed the response of grain yield to climate change in Guanzhong, Shaanxi, one of China's main food-producing areas. Datasets were climate variables at 8 meteorological stations, grain yield statistics from Guanzhong region during 1983-2016, and the precipitation and temperature simulation results from 4 global climate models of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project for 2021-2050. Mutation analysis, trend analysis, and sensitivity analysis were all used in the study. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Guanzhong region was increasing significantly at the rate of 0.05 ℃·a-1, and a significant increase in the maximum temperature was contributing most to this trend. Meanwhile, annual average precipitation showed a decreasing trend at the rate of -1 mm·a-1 but was not significant. During 1983-2016, the average annual grain yield of Guanzhong region was 3 599 kg·hm-2. Although showing fluctuations, it increased at the rate of 57.17 kg·hm-2·a-1 (P < 0.001). There was a positive correlation between the climatic yield and temperature in many parts of Guanzhong. The increase in temperature had promoted an increase in climatic yield in Guanzhong to a certain extent, but not significantly (the increase was 0.85 kg·hm-2·a-1 and P>0.05). The CPP of Guanzhong region ranged between 7 000-12 000 kg·hm-2 over 34 years. Due to the fluctuations in temperature, the average CPP after 1995 was higher than that before 1995, which meant that the change in CPP after 1995 was the main driving source of the increasing trend of CPP during the whole study period. During 2021-2050, the average CPP of Guanzhong region under RCP 2.6 scenario will be higher than that of RCP 6.0. However, the CPP decreases under the RCP 2.6 scenario but increases under the RCP 6.0 scenario. There is a plenty room for promotion of climate resources used by crops in Guanzhong region, and climate change has had a positive effect on the grain yield in Guanzhong, but this effect will not persist.
Key words:Climate change/
Grain yield/
Climate potential productivity/
Global climate model/
Guanzhong region
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