摘要:潜在弃耕风险耕地识别是耕地总体利用和规划的科学依据，也是实现农业可持续发展的关键手段。然而，受弃耕过程的渐进性、复杂性及其相关学科方法与技术的限制，使弃耕很难被准确地识别和预测。本研究根据道路、坡度、海拔、水源、降水、气温、人口、粮食产量等因子与弃耕风险的关系，构建了以弃耕影响因子为主导的弃耕风险指数（FARI）和以系统聚类为基础的弃耕风险识别方法，对哈尼梯田进行了实证研究。结果表明：1）哈尼梯田稳定、弱风险和高风险耕地的面积占比分别为57%、35%和8%，整体较为稳定。2）哈尼梯田弃耕风险指数呈北部高于南部，东部大于西部的空间特征。3）在区位上哈尼梯田弃耕高风险耕地（34.95 km2）主要分布在县域边界处，该区耕作条件差，是退耕还林还草、修复生态的关键区；稳定耕地（234.87 km2）主要分布在元阳县的东中部，耕作条件适宜，是本区粮食安全与遗产保护的核心区。4）在影响因子上，稳定耕地区主要受人口、粮食产量、道路距离等因子的影响，其次为坡度、河流距离和海拔；弱风险耕地区受降水因子影响最大，其他环境因子的影响均较小；高风险耕地区主要受气温、坡度、海拔和河流距离等因子的影响。总之，哈尼梯田总体较为稳定，弃耕风险小，且不同弃耕风险程度耕地的影响因子不同。
关键词:哈尼梯田/
农业文化遗产/
耕地/
弃耕风险指数(FARI)/
弃耕因子
Abstract:The identification of farmland at risk of abandonment is not only the scientific basis for utilization planning and management of overall farmland in a region but also a key measurement of agricultural sustainability. However, the accuracy of identification results can be affected by the gradualness and complexity of abandonment process and limited by the development of current relevant technologies. In response to these challenges, a set of scientific identification methods have been established for use in the World Heritage Site of Hani Rice Terraces. In the first of two steps, a farmland abandonment risk index (FARI) is constructed using factors such as road access, slope, elevation, water, precipitation, temperature, population, rice production, among others. Second, the farmlands at high risk of abandonment are identified through hierarchical cluster analysis. The results suggest first that farmland can be divided into three categories of abandonment threat:stable, low-risk abandonment, and high-risk abandonment. These categories accounted for 57%, 35%, and 8% of the total farmland area of the heritage site, respectively. Overall, the results indicate that farmlands at the heritage site were stable. Second, the variation trend for the FARI in longitude and latitude was:north was higher than south and east was higher than west. Third, in terms of spatial patterns, farmlands at high risk of abandonment (34.95 km2) were distributed at the boundary of Yuanyang County and composed of two parts (from Ganiang and Fengchunling to Xiaoxinjie, from Majie to eastern Niujiaozhai). The region was a key area for ecological restoration in the region because of poor cultivating conditions. Fourth, by analyzing the factors influencing the three types of farmland, the following results were obtained. Stable farmland was primarily affected by population, rice production, and road access, followed by slope, water, and elevation. Stability was positively associated with population and rice production and negatively associated with road access, slope, water, and elevation. Farmland at low risk of abandonment was most affected by precipitation, and other factors had less impact. Farmland at high risk of abandonment was primarily affected by temperature, slope, elevation, and river connectivity. Among them, the risk was positively associated with slope, elevation, and river connectivity and negatively associated with temperature. In conclusion, the Hani Rice Terraces were generally stable, with little risk of abandonment, and the factors affecting the risk of abandoned farming differed significantly in space.
Key words:Honghe Hani Rice Terrace/
Agricultural heritage/
Farmland/
Farmland abandonment risk index (FARI)/
Abandonment factor
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