摘要:面对日益严峻的温室气体排放形势，中国做出到2030年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值的承诺，其中畜牧业成为重要减排领域，因此，研究中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及趋势尤为必要。基于2000-2014年省级面板数据，在参考《省级温室气体排放清单指南》测算畜牧业温室气体排放量基础上，借助Tapio脱钩模型分析畜牧业温室气体排放与经济发展之间的关系，采用LMDI模型分解其影响因素，并构建不同情景对2020年畜牧业温室气体排放目标进行分析。研究结果表明：畜牧业温室气体排放量总体呈下降趋势，非奶牛减排明显，是下降主因，但其仍处于50%水平之上，排放量达18 180.54万t；羊、生猪、奶牛排放量增加，分别为7 072.56万t、6 202.69万t、4 359.97万t。畜牧业温室气体排放脱钩效应比较理想，全国以弱脱钩状态为主，但经历波动变化、相对平稳、持续上升3个发展阶段，脱钩状态不稳定。综合效应在国家层面呈倒“U”型特征，但在省份间差异明显；生产效率效应是国家和省份减排的最大贡献者，经济发展效应则是增排的最主要推动因素；综合效应差异主要来自产业结构效应和劳动力效应的不同。2020年畜牧业温室气体排放远超管控目标，预测区间端点值分别超过目标12.84%和34.71%，减排压力大。因此，应调整产业结构，适当进口畜产品；针对不同地区脱钩状态差别化治理，提高养殖效率；明确畜牧业减排目标，分解管控任务。
关键词:畜牧业/
温室气体排放/
脱钩模型/
LMDI模型/
情景预测
Abstract:With increasing greenhouse gas emission, China has committed to cap carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. As animal husbandry has become an important part of the emission reduction effort, it is necessary to analyze the current situation and trend in greenhouse gas emission due to animal husbandry in the country. Based on the 2000-2014 provincial panel data and the Guidelines on Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories, we estimated greenhouse gas emission due to animal husbandry and then used the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the relationship between greenhouse gas emission and the economic development due to animal husbandry. Furthermore, LMDI model was used to decompose the driving factors, and the greenhouse gas emissions target of animal husbandry in 2020 under different scenarios were also analyzed. The results suggested that greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry decreased from 377.852 4 million tons in 2000 to 358.157 6 million tons in 2014, representing a drop of 5.21%. Emission reduction from non-dairy cattle was significant. However, it was still above the 50% threshold — 181.805 4 million tons. Emissions from sheep, pigs and cattle were respectively 70.725 6 million tons, 62.026 9 million tons and 43.599 7 million tons, all of which still increased. The decoupling effect of greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry was ideal. The whole country was under weak decoupling that underwent three stages of fluctuation — relative stability — increase. The decoupling condition for each province was good, among which 15 provinces had strong decoupling, 15 provinces had weak decoupling and 1 province had receding decoupling. The comprehensive effect tracked an inverted U-curve at the national level, which was quite different for the provinces. The efficiency of production was the main contributor to the national and provincial emission reductions, while the effect of economic development was the most important driving factor of emission. The difference in comprehensive effect mainly came from the difference in industrial structure and labor. In 2020, greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry far exceeded planned target. The predicted range of greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry was from 335.630 8 to 400.677 1 million tons. Then the predicted endpoint values were respectively 12.84% and 34.71% more than the target, which great increased the pressure of emission reduction. In this case, only the lowest decoupling elasticity and the fastest economic growth rate had the least greenhouse gas emission gap. Greenhouse gas emission reduction was an inevitable requirement for sustainable development in the world. Although the decoupling effect of greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry in China was obvious under the effect of several factors, emission reduction was still an arduous task, requiring the formulation of practical measures to promote it. Therefore, this work suggested that China needed to adjust its industrial structure and import livestock products instead of promoting domestic production. There was the need to implement differential governance of decoupling in different regions and improving farming efficiency. Also, clear animal husbandry emission reduction objectives and task assignments to provinces were required.
Key words:Animal husbandry/
Greenhouse gas emission/
Decoupling model/
LMDI model/
Prediction
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