国家间政治冲突对贸易的影响——文献综述及基于中国与大国关系的实证研究
The Effect of Political Conflicts on Trade——Literature Review and Empirical Study Based on China's Foreign Relations with Major Powers 杜映昕; 1:清华大学经济管理学院经济系 摘要(Abstract)：

国家间的政治冲突是否会对两国的贸易往来造成影响?本文就已有理论与实证研究进行了回顾。对于国家间政治冲突为何会影响贸易,如何影响,已有文献提供了以下几方面解释:贸易对国家安全具有外部性;贸易限制是国家在冲突中表明坚决立场的高成本信号;国家关系是国家、企业或消费者效用中的一部分;冲突通过影响交通、市场运行等直接增加了贸易成本;冲突带来合同风险的上升。未来冲突的不确定性会使贸易参与者在政治冲击发生前就做出反应,贸易关系中的沉没成本使得贸易参与者在政治冲击发生时倾向于不做出反应。已有实证研究发现,战争、军事冲突、领土争端等不同类型的冲突会带来贸易的降低,贸易也与构建的冲突——合作程度指标相关。重大战争会对贸易有长期影响,且可能降低与第三国的贸易。最新研究基于部门或企业层面数据,涉及产品战略安全性、国家控制、消费者抵制等不同影响渠道。本文利用清华大学构建的中国与大国关系数据库,对1950一2011年中国与7个大国政治关系对贸易影响进行了初步分析,结果发现,政治关系对中国与大国间的贸易有显著影响,中国与该国政治关系越好(越差),则与该国的贸易往来越多(越少)。对于政治关系在什么条件下影响贸易,主要通过什么渠道影响,以及贸易对政治关系变化的调整可能存在的短期性,还有待未来研究进一步探索。

关键词(KeyWords)： 国际贸易;;政治冲突;;文献综述;;中外关系

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 杜映昕;

Email:


参考文献(References)： 郎平.2006.贸易是推动和平的力量吗[J].世界经济与政治,(10):45-52.
邝艳湘.2011.经济相互依赖的和平效应:文献述评与展望[J].复旦国际关系评论,(1):163-192.
邝艳湘,向洪金.2009.贸易与国际冲突的因果检验[J].国际政治科学,(2):1-26.
徐奇渊,陈思翀.2014.中日关系紧张对双边贸易的影响[J].国际政治科学,(1):1-23.
阎学通等.2010.中外关系鉴览1950—2005——中国与大国关系定量衡量[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
周念利,黄宁.2014.中俄经贸与政治关系发展的非对称现象分析与应对[J].东北亚论坛,(2):67-78.
Anderson J E,van Wincoop E.2003.Gravity with gravitas:A solution to the border puzzle[J].The American Economic Review,93(1):170-192.
Anderton C H,Carter J R.2001.The impact of war on trade:An interrupted times-series study[J].Journal of Peace Research,38(4):445-457.
Armstrong S P.2012.The politics of Japan-China trade and the role of the world trade system[J].The World Economy,35(9)-1102-1120.
Ashenfelter O,Ciccarella S,Shatz H J.2007.French wine and the U.S.boycott of2003:Does politics really affect commerce?[J].Journal of Wine Economics,2(1):55-74.
Athanassiou E,Kollias C.2002.Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade:Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry[J].Defence and Peace Economics,13(5):417-427.
Barbieri K,Levy J S.1999.Sleeping with the enemy:The impact of war on trade[J].Journal of Peace Research,36(4):463-479.
Barbieri K,Levy J S.2001.Does war impede trade?A response to Anderton&Carter[J].Journal of Peace Research,38(5):619-624.
Chavis L,Leslie P.2009.Consumer boycotts:The impact of the Iraq war on French wine sales in the U.S.[J].Quantitative Marketing and Economics,7(1):37-67.
Che Y,Du J,Lu Y,Tao Z.2015.Once an Enemy,Forever an Enemy?The Longrun Impact of the Japanese Invasion of China from 1937 to 1945 on Trade and Investment[J].Journal of International Economics.
Clerides S,Davis P,Michis A.2014.National sentiment and consumer choice:The Iraq war and sales of US products in Arab countries[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
Davis C,Fuchs A,Johnson K.2014.State control and the effects of foreign relations on bilateral trade[R].University of Heidelberg Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series No.576.
Davis C L,Meunier S.2011.Business as Usual?Economic responses to political tensions[J].American Journal of Political Science,55(3):628-646.
Dixon W J,Moon B E.1993.Political similarity and American foreign trade patterns[J].Political Research Quarterly,46(1):5-25.
Feenstra R C,Inklaar R,Timmer M P.2013.The Next Generation of the Penn World Table[DB/OL].[2015-02-10].http://www.ggdc.net/pwt.
Felbermayr G,Groschl J.2014.Within U.S.trade and the long shadow of the American secession[J].Economic Inquiry,52(1):382-404.
Fisman R,Hamao Y,Wang Y.2014.Nationalism and economic exchange:Evidence from shocks to Sino-Japanese relations[J].The Review of Financial Studies,27(9):2626-2660.
Fouka V,Voth H-J.2013.Reprisals Remembered:German-Greek Conflict and Car Sales During the Euro Crisis[R].Working Papers 726,Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
Fuchs A,Klann N-H.2013.Paying a visit:The dalai lama effect on international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,91(1):164-177.
Gholz E,Press D G.2001.The effects of wars on neutral countries:Why it doesn't pay to preserve the peace[J].Security Studies,10(4):1-57.
Glick R,Taylor A M.2010.Collateral damage:Trade disruption and the economic impact of war[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,92(1):102-127.
Goenner C F.2011.Simultaneity between trade and conflict:Endogenous instruments of mass destruction[J].Conflict Management and Peace Science,28(5):459-477.
Govella K,Newland S.2010.Hot Economics,Cold Politics?Reexamining Economic Linkages and Political Tensions in Sino-Japanese Relations[R/OL].[2015-03-03].APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper.http://ssrn.com/abstract:1642141.
Gowa J.1989.Bipolarity,multipolarity,and free trade[J].The American Political Science Review,83(4):1245-1256.
Gowa J,Mansfield E D.1993.Power politics and international trade[J].The American Political Science Review,87(2):408-420.
Hegre H,Oneal J R,Russett B.2010.Trade does promote peace:New simultaneous estimates of the reciprocal effects of trade and conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,47(6):763-774.
Hong C,Hu W-M,Prieger J E,Zhu D.2011.French automobiles and the Chinese boycotts of 2008:Politics really does affect commerce[J].The B.E.Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,11(1):1-38.
Kashcheeva M,Tsui K K.2015.Political Influence in Commercial and Financial Oil Trading:The Evidence from US Firms[R].IDE Discussion Papers(No.491).
Kastner S L.2003.Commerce in the Shadow of Conflict;Domestic Policy and the Relationship between International Conflict and Economic Interdependence[D].University of California,San Diego.
Kastner S L.2007.When do conflicting political relations affect international trade?[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,51(4):664-688.
Keshk O M G,Pollins B M,Reuveny R.2004.Trade still follows the flag:The primacy of politics in a simultaneous model of interdependence and armed conflict[J].The Journal of Politics,66(04),1155-1179.
Kim H M,Rousseau D L.2005.The classical liberals were half right(or half wrong):New tests of the"Liberal Peace",1960-1988[J].Journal of Peace Research,42(5):523-543.
Lamotte O.2012.Disentangling the impact of wars and sanctions on international trade;Evidence from former Yugoslavia[J].Comparative Economic Studies,54(3):553-579.
Levchenko A A.2007.Institutional quality and international trade[J].Review of Economic Studies,74(3):791-819.
Levy J S,Barbieri K.2004.Trading with the enemy during wartime[J].Security Studies,13(3):1-47.
Li Q,Sacko D.2002.The(Ir)relevance of militarized interstate disputes for international trade[J].International Studies Quarterly,(46):11-43.
Long A G.2008.Bilateral Trade in the shadow of armed conflict[J].International Studies Quarterly,52(1),81-101.
Martin P,Mayer T,Thoenig M.2008.Make trade not war?[J].Review of Economic Studies,75(3):865-900.
Michaels G,Zhi X.2010.Freedom fries[J].The American Economic Journal;Applied Economics,2(3),256-281.
Mityakov S,Tang H,Tsui KK.2013.International politics and import diversification[J].Journal of Lazv and Economics,56(4),1091-1121.
Morrow J D.1999.How could trade affect conflict?[J].Journal of Peace Research,36(4),481-489.
Morrow J D,Siverson R M,Tabares T E.1998.The political determinants of international trade[J].The American Political Science Review,92(3):649-661.
Morrow J D,Siverson R M,Tabares T E.1999.Correction to"the political determinants of international trade"[J].The American Political Science Review,93(4):931-933.
Pandya S,Venkatesan R.2015.French roast:Consumer responses to international conflict-evidence from supermarket scanner data[J].Review of Economics and Statistics.
Polity IV.2014.Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions,1800-2010[DB/OL].[2014-02-15].http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm.
Pollins B M.1989a.Conflict,cooperation,and commerce:The effect of international political interactions on bilateral trade flows[J].American Journal of Political Science,33(3):737-761.
Pollins B M.1989b.Does trade still follow the flag?[J].The American Political Science Review.83(2):465-480
Qureshi M S.2013.Trade and thy neighbor's war[J].Journal of Development Economics.105:178-195.
Reuveny R.2001a.Bilateral import,export,and conflict/cooperation simultaneity[J].International Studies Quarterly,45(1):131-158.
Reuveny R.2001b.Disaggregated bilateral trade and conflict:Exploring propositions in a simultaneous framework[J].International Politics,38(3):401-428.
Reuveny R,Kang H.2003.A simultaneous-equations model of trade,conflict,and cooperation[J].Review of International Economics,11(2):279-295.
Reuveny R,Pollins B M,Keshk O M G.2011.The perils of doctrine:A reply to Havard Hegre,John R Oneal&.Bruce Russett:Trade does promote peace:New simultaneous estimates of the reciprocal effects of trade and conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,47(August):1-5.
Rogowski R.1989.Commerce and Coalitions:How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press.
Santos SilvaJ M C,Tenreyro S.2006.The log of gravity[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,88(4):641-658.
Simmons B A.2005.Rules over real estate:Trade,territorial conflict,and international borders as institution[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,49(6):823-848.
Zhang J,van Witteloostuijn A,Elhorst J P.2011.China's politics and bilateral trade linkages[J].Asian Journal of Political Science,19(1):25-47.
①国内学者对此进行了综述,可参见郎平(2005),邝艳湘(2011)。
②同样也存在“政热经冷”现象:如中国与俄罗斯虽然政治关系密切,但经贸关系发展却相对滞后(周念利和黄宁,2014),政治上的紧密联系不必然意味着贸易的繁荣。
①现实主义者也有持贸易对冲突没有什么影响的观点,后续有许多研究尝试以新的理论弥合这两大学派的异同。
②自由主义者认为战争或冲突会中断或降低贸易,增加冲突的机会成本,从而可以促进两国和平,但并未对冲突减少贸易的这一前提假设做出进一步阐释。
①均衡价格的变化既取决于两条曲线的平移量,也取决于这两条曲线的价格弹性:需求曲线下降得越少,或其价格弹性越低(进口商越难找到该进口的替代品或供应商),均衡数量的下降越小,均衡价格上升越大;供给曲线下降得越多,或其价格弹性越高(出口商越容易找到替代的市场或买方),均衡数量的下降较大,均衡价格下降较小。
①Levy and Barbieri(2004)认为.根据已有实证结果,战争并不一定带来贸易的中断或显著下降.且历史上的例子也表明,在战争中仍然与敌国进行贸易确实并非罕见现象,值得对背后的因果机制做出进一步研究与解释,并对此进行了论述。
①他的研究结果也出现了政治关系对贸易影响不显著或影响方向相反的情况,贸易反而随着冲突而上升。他提出几种可能的驱动力,例如在维持贸易中获利而中断贸易中损失的群体可能会增加与冲突国的贸易.而在维持贸易中受损在中断贸易中获益的群体可能会减少与合作国的贸易;领导人可能会以贸易来缓解冲突,或是在冲突上升时鼓励贸易,以获取未来的相对收益;另一种可能是冲突会迫使一国答应另一国的政策要求.包括提高与之的贸易。这些驱动力随产品类型而不同.因而结果也出现了差异。
①Levchenko(2007)曾将不完全契约和“敲竹杠”问题引入国际贸易模型中,说明制度上的比较优势。
①本文使用的样本中,零贸易流量大约占总观测值的6%~9%,包括1951—1972年美国自1950年朝鲜战争爆发后对中国的贸易禁运时期;1962年中印发生边界战争之后,中印两国贸易有多年持续为零,直至1976年恢复互派大使后,两国贸易才得到恢复;1960年中苏交恶后出现的零贸易额(在20世纪50年代至70年代中苏贸易的统计数据多为缺失)。


摘要:
扩展功能
本文信息
PDF全文请访问中国知网下载(1314K)