全球价值链研究及国际贸易格局分析
Research on Global Value Chain and the Analysis on International Trade Patterns 鞠建东;余心玎; 1:清华大学经济管理学院 2:上海财经大学国际工商管理学院 摘要(Abstract)：

随着贸易成本的降低以及信息通讯技术的提升,国家间的分工已不再局限于最终产品层面,而是细化至产品生产过程中的各个环节,覆盖全球的生产网络已经形成。国际分工的日益深化和贸易格局的迅速变革凸显了全球价值链研究的重要性。本文首先对价值链概念的形成与发展进行介绍;其后从包含序贯生产的贸易模型、贸易附加值测算以及价值链结构测度这3个方面,对近年来全球价值链理论及定量研究的前沿进展进行总结;最后,本文将价值链结构测度方法与实际数据相结合,对当前全球价值链上各国所处的位置进行定量描述,并对贸易理论所预期的分工格局背后比较优势的可能来源进行实证分析。

关键词(KeyWords)： 全球价值链;;序贯生产;;附加值贸易;;上游度;;贸易格局

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作者(Author): 鞠建东;余心玎;

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1 Costinot et al.(2013)的这篇研究发表时间略晚,但成文应是在Costnot et al.(2012)之前。后文La Cruz et al.(2011)和Koopman et al.(2012)、Wang et al.(2013)和Koopman et al.(2014)亦为类似情况。
1 GTAP数据来自“全球贸易分析项目”(Global Trade Analysis Project),Daudin et al.(2011)所使用的1997年、2001年和2004年的数据分别提供了66、87、113个国家或地区的本国及进口投入产出矩阵,以及分部门双边贸易数据。
1 在Wang et al.(2013)对Koopman et al.(2014)所提出的附加值分解框架的扩展研究中,按照该研究的3位作者(R.B.Koopman;Z.Wang和S.J.Wei)的姓名首字母,将这一分解框架简称“KWW”。
2 此外,Stehrer et al.(2012)提出了一种从净贸易额出发,对一国进口和出口中的国内、国外附加值分别进行分解的方法,确保釆用贸易附加值或贸易总额计算得到的净贸易额一致。
1 与KWW类似,同样按照3位作者Z.Wang;S.J.Wei和K.Zhu的姓名首字母命名。
2 此外,Fally(2011)还提出了另一种衡量指标M含义为:行业i的产出中所包含的生产步数,即在价值链上巳经走过的“距离”。
1 Antrds et al.(2012)在证明该性质时的前提假设为:保持最终使用矩阵F和投入产出矩阵D的非对角线元素不变。
2 Antrds et al.(2012)在证明该性质时的前提假设为:保持由牛ij构成的i V X i V矩阵不变。
1 上游度指标所对应的是2002年投入产出部门分类(102002),该分类编码与6位HS编码之间的对照表来自Ju and Yu(2014).
2 考虑到本文所釆用的行业上游度指标是根据2002年的投入产出表进行计算的,因此这里选择釆用2002年的数据进行展示,在其他年份的数据中可观察到类似结果。
1本文釆用美国国家统计局提供的2002年投入产出分类码与2002年NAICS分类码之间的代码对照表,将Antrds et al.(2012)基于426部门投入产出表计算的上游度指标与1997年NAICS行业分类中的制造业部门(以3开头,6位码)进行匹配,这些制造业部门的NAICS分类码在2002年和1997年的版本之间未发生变化。
1 相关系数按2002年的数值计算。其他年份的情况相似,均为显著负相关。此外,Antrds et al.(2012)将行业的技术密集度计算为非生产工人工资在总支出中的占比,同样在美国数据中发现了显著负相关关系。
2 Antrds et al.(2012)所分析的是各国在世界贸易中的总出口格局,而Fally(2011)则分析的是美国的进口格局(或可以说是各国对美国的出口格局)。
1 工业企业数据所釆用的CIC行业编码与2002年投入产出分类码之间的对照表来自J U and Yu(2014)。该对照表在Brandt etal.(2012)编制的制造业部门IO分类码与2003年前后CIC分类码对照表的基础上,进一步增加了对矿业部门的覆盖。
2 由于技术工人的人数信息只在2004年的数据中提供,因此在样本覆盖的所有年份均以2004年的水平作为近似替代。


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