中文关键词WRF-Chem模型PM_2.5污染过早死亡经济损失潜在效益 英文关键词WRF-Chem modelPM_2.5 pollutionpremature mortalityeconomic losspotential benefits

作者	单位	E-mail
李勇	兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000	liyong17@lzu.edu.cn
廖琴	兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 兰州 730000
赵秀阁	兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012
白云	重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院, 重庆 400067
陶燕	兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000	taoyan@lzu.edu.cn

中文摘要 开展全国范围归因于PM_2.5污染的健康负担和经济损失研究，对于污染防控政策至关重要.首先利用空气质量模型（WRF-Chem）模拟结果，分析2016年PM_2.5的时空分布和暴露水平；同时结合环境健康风险及环境价值评估方法，评估PM_2.5污染引起的健康负担和经济损失；最后基于情景分析方法，预估实现具体PM_2.5控制目标的健康经济效益.结果表明，2016年，我国PM_2.5污染主要集中在京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、四川盆地以及西北沙漠地区，且71.49%的人口暴露在PM_2.5浓度高于35 μg·m^-3的环境空气中；PM_2.5污染造成约106.04万人过早死亡，约占总死亡人数的10.9%，其中冠心病和中风约占80%；PM_2.5污染造成健康经济损失7059.31亿元，约占国内生产总值（GDP）的0.95%.PM_2.5污染造成的健康负担和经济损失存在显著空间差异，主要分布在PM_2.5浓度和人口密度高的中东部地区；情景分析表明，我国所有地区PM_2.5浓度降至35 μg·m^-3，只能避免17.11%的健康经济损失，而降至10 μg·m^-3可以带来80.47%的健康经济效益.建议环境管理者进一步加强控制力度，更好地保障居民的健康和财富利益，尤其是心脑血管疾病患者等敏感人群以及归因死亡率高的地区. 英文摘要 Research on health and the economic losses caused by PM_2.5 pollution nationwide is critical for pollution control planning. First, the spatiotemporal distribution of PM_2.5 and exposure levels were simulated and analyzed using the air quality model (WRF-Chem) in China in 2016. Then, the health burden and economic loss caused by PM_2.5 pollution were estimated using environmental health risk and environmental value assessment methods. Finally, the health and economic benefits from achieving specific PM_2.5 control targets were estimated. In 2016 in China, high levels of PM_2.5 were concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, the Sichuan Basin, and the desert areas in northwest China. Furthermore, 71.49% of the total population of China was exposed to an environment with PM_2.5 concentrations higher than 35 μg·m^-3. Subsequently, the national PM_2.5-related mortality was 1.06 million, accounting for 10.9% of the total deaths in China. Stroke and ischemic heart disease accounted for approximately 80% of the total PM_2.5-related deaths caused by the five diseases studied. Meanwhile, the PM_2.5 pollution resulted in economic losses of 705.93 billion yuan, which was 0.95% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016. There were significant spatial differences in the health burden and economic loss, which primarily occurred in regions with high PM_2.5 levels or population density. Moreover, reducing PM_2.5 to 35 μg·m^-3 would only result in a 17.11% reduction in the health burden and economic loss, while a more exacting standard (reducing PM_2.5 to 10 μg·m^-3) would bring 80.47% of the health and economic benefits. It is suggested that environmental managers further strengthen their control to better protect the health and wealth benefits of residents, especially for sensitive groups, such as patients with cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, particularly in areas with high premature mortality.

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