中文关键词PM_2.5污染健康效应经济评估北京 英文关键词PM_2.5pollutionhealth effectseconomic assessmentBeijing

作者	单位	E-mail
杜沛	东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025	renshengdp@126.com
王建州	东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025	wangjz@dufe.edu.cn

中文摘要 实施PM_2.5污染控制后所带来的居民健康经济效益评估，对推进区域环境空气质量监管、健康预警以及防治等工作具有重要意义.本文采用泊松回归相对危险模型和环境价值评估方法，对2016~2019北京16个辖区年PM_2.5污染控制到二级标准限值35 μg·m^-3后所带来的健康风险及经济效益进行评估.结果显示，2016~2019年北京及其16个辖区PM_2.5浓度、各健康终端效应、经济效益以及人均经济健康效益等均呈现出下降趋势.其中，北京PM_2.5浓度值从2016年的73 μg·m^-3下降至2019年的42 μg·m^-3，年均下降率为16.75%，控制PM_2.5污染的健康总受益人数从2016年的439985例（95%置信区间：183987，653476）下降到2019年的77288例（95%置信区间：30483，120905），年平均下降率约为42.67%.健康经济效益占GDP的比重从3.16%（95%置信区间：1.10%，4.73%）下降到0.55%（95%置信区间：0.18%，0.88%），人均健康经济效益从3727.61元（95%置信区间：1303.24，5592.18）下降到906.58元（95%置信区间：295.14，1438.27）.此外，由于PM_2.5浓度、人口数量和密度以及单位健康终端经济价值的差异使得北京16个辖区的健康经济效益、占GDP比重以及人均效益估算结果各有差异，其中丰台、通州和大兴等远高于其他辖区，健康风险与经济效益问题相对突出. 英文摘要 The assessment of residents' health and economic benefits of PM_2.5 pollution control is of great significance for the promotion of regional environmental air pollution monitoring, warning, and prevention. This paper utilized Poisson regression relative risk models and environmental value assessment methods to assess the health risks and economic benefits of PM_2.5 pollution control in the 16 municipal districts of Beijing from 2016 to 2019 after reaching the secondary standard limit of 35 μg·m^-3. The results showed that PM_2.5 concentrations, various health effects, economic benefits, and per capita economic health benefits in all 16 districts showed a downward trend. Specifically, PM_2.5 concentrations dropped from 73 μg·m^-3 in 2016 to 42 μg·m^-3 in 2019 at an average annual rate of 16.75%. The total number of healthy beneficiaries from PM_2.5 pollution control dropped from 439985 cases in 2016 (95% confidence interval (CI):183987, 653476) to 77288 cases in 2019 (95% confidence interval (CI):30483, 120905) at an average annual rate of approximately 42.67%. The share of health economic benefits in GDP dropped from 3.16% (95% confidence interval (CI):1.10%, 4.73%) to 0.55% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.18%, 0.88%), and the per capita health economic benefit dropped from 3727.61 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):1303.24, 5592.18) to 906.58 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):295.14, 1438.27). Due to differences in PM_2.5 concentrations, population number and density, and economic values of unit health endpoints, the results of the health economic benefit analysis, proportion of GDP, and per capita benefits varied between the 16 districts. Among these, Fengtai, Tongzhou, and Daxing show much higher values than others, indicating relatively high health and economic benefits from pollution control.

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