中文关键词PM_2.5健康风险评估驱动因素暴露因子大气污染防治行动计划 英文关键词PM_2.5health risk assessmentdriving factorexposure factorair pollution prevention and control action plan

作者	单位	E-mail
张梦娇	郑州大学化学学院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001	zhangmengjiao95@foxmail.com
苏方成	郑州大学化学学院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001
徐起翔	郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学生态与环境学院, 郑州 450001	xuqixiang@zzu.edu.cn
张瑞芹	郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学生态与环境学院, 郑州 450001
魏煜	郑州大学化学学院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001
谢刘震	郑州大学化学学院, 郑州 450001 郑州大学环境科学研究院, 郑州 450001

中文摘要 为了评估中国大气环境治理带来的健康效益，确定健康风险评价的主要驱动因素，本文使用结合人群活动因子的综合暴露响应模型，对中国东部和中部地区2013~2017年可归因于PM_2.5的健康经济效益进行了估算，并量化了人口总量、人口老龄化、基准死亡率和PM_2.5暴露浓度这4个因素对健康负担的影响贡献.结果表明，2013~2017年研究区域内PM_2.5人口加权浓度下降了28.73%，PM_2.5年均暴露浓度在35 μg·m^-3及以下的人口比例从11.23%增加到27.91%.PM_2.5浓度下降使得2017年归因死亡数下降了14.43%，可避免经济损失为5588.41亿元.当PM_2.5暴露浓度达到国家二级标准（35 μg·m^-3）、一级标准（15 μg·m^-3）和世卫组织建议标准（10 μg·m^-3）时，归因死亡人数较基准年（2017年）将减少8.22%、55.05%和79.36%，避免经济损失3190.85、21374.38和30812.97亿元.人口总量、人口老龄化、基准死亡率和PM_2.5暴露浓度这4个因素对健康负担的贡献分别为-2.69%、-12.38%、1.66%和14.57%，其中污染物浓度降低是减轻健康负担的主导因素.中国的大气污染治理取得了显著成效，但在高PM_2.5浓度和高人口密度的地区，大气污染导致的健康负担仍然很重，需要实施更加严格的空气污染控制政策. 英文摘要 To evaluate the health benefits brought about by air environmental treatment and determine the main drivers of health risk, we calculated the health and economic benefits attributed to PM_2.5 control in Eastern and Central China from 2013 to 2017 by combining PM_2.5 concentrations with a human activity enhanced exposure-response model. The relative contributions of changes in four factors related to the PM_2.5 health burden were also quantified, namely total population, population aging, baseline mortality rates, and ambient exposure. The results show that the population weighted PM_2.5 concentration decreased by 28.73% and the proportion of the population exposed to annual PM_2.5 concentrations lower than or equal to 35 μg·m^-3 increased from 11.23% to 27.91% across the study area during this period. Avoided deaths were decreased to 14.43%, which equates to avoided economic losses of approximately 559 billion RMB. If PM_2.5 concentration meets the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard Grade Ⅱ (35 μg·m^-3) or Grade Ⅰ (15 μg·m^-3), or the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) standards (10 μg·m^-3), a 8.22%, 55.05%, and 79.36% reduction in the total deaths could be achieved in the base year (2017) with equivalent total economic benefits of approximately 319, 2137, and 3081 billion RMB, respectively. Total population, population aging, baseline mortality rates, and PM_2.5 concentrations contributed -2.69%, -12.38%, 1.66%, and 14.57% to PM_2.5-related deaths. Overall, during the study period, the reduction in PM_2.5 concentrations has been the main factor contributing to the reduction in the public health burden. China has implemented significant air pollution control measures; however, the health burden associated with high PM_2.5 concentrations in densely populated areas is still extremely high, requiring an aggressive air pollution control strategy.

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