摘要:我国城市群快速发育与增长的同时也伴随着巨大的生态代价。基于生态约束视角提出城市群可持续发展的"供需-效率-结构"三维测度模型，以闽三角城市群为实证，综合运用生态足迹、生态承载力与信息熵模型，从资源供需关系、发展生态效率与生态本底结构三个方面评价其2018年区域城镇可持续发展空间分异规律，并进一步探究其影响因素与转型发展路径。研究发现：（1）闽三角区域城镇发展空间分异明显，具体表现为南北差异与海陆差异，空间集聚效应正在形成。（2）城镇可持续发展潜力与能源消耗和经济发展水平呈显著负相关，而人口、城镇化、经济、能源消耗等影响因素对资源供需关系、发展生态效率与生态本底结构三个子系统的影响机制存在差异。（3）鉴于影响机制差异，采用系统聚类法将闽三角城镇划分为赤字型、失衡型、粗放型与可持续型四类，针对不同类型城镇的主要发展制约因素提出相应的转型发展路径。研究希望为城市群可持续发展研究提供新的思路，为闽三角区域城镇转型发展提供参考与借鉴。



Abstract:The rapid development and growth of urban agglomerations in China are accompanied by huge ecological costs. From the ecological constraint perspective, this paper proposed a three-dimensional measurement model of "quantity-efficiency-structure". We comprehensively used the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and information entropy model to evaluate the sustainable development potential of towns in Fujian Triangle in 2018 from three aspects: resource supply and demand relationship, development ecological efficiency, and ecological structure. The influencing factors and urban transformation path were also explored. The findings are as follows. (1) The urban sustainable development potential in the Fujian triangle area has a great difference between the north and the south, inland cities and coastal cities. At the same time, a spatial agglomeration trend is forming. (2) Energy consumption and economic development level have a significantly negative impact on the sustainable development potential of towns, while factors such as population, urbanization, economy, and energy consumption have different impacts on the three subsystems of resource supply and demand, ecological efficiency, and ecological structure. (3) In view of the difference of influence mechanism, the paper classified the towns of the Fujian triangle into deficit, unbalanced, extensive and sustainable by the method of systematic clustering, and put forward the corresponding transformation development path according to the main development constraints of different types of towns. We hope to provide new ideas for the study of sustainable development of urban agglomerations and provide references for the transformation and development of towns in the Fujian triangle region.





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