摘要:生态系统服务与城镇化的相互作用关系研究是目前国际人地系统研究的热点和前沿领域。以长江中游地区325个县为研究单元，通过生态系统服务供需平衡评估矩阵法与城镇化相关指标分别测算了1995年、2005年、2015年生态系统服务平衡状况和城镇化水平，同时运用双变量空间自相关模型、空间计量模型探索了生态系统服务平衡与城镇化的空间关系。研究结果表明：（1）研究期间长江中游地区生态系统服务平衡状况不断恶化，而城镇化水平则持续上升；（2）生态系统服务平衡与城镇化之间存在显著负相关关系，不同区域的空间聚类模式表现出异质性；（3）添加控制变量的空间计量模型被证明能更好解释生态系统服务平衡与城镇化的空间关系，结果显示城镇化对态系统服务平衡的影响具有负外部效应，这种负外部效应在城镇化发展到一定阶段时逐渐减弱。建议，在城镇化进程中应统筹管理生态空间，尝试跨区域合作，实现生态与经济资源的共享与互补。



Abstract:The research on the interaction between ecosystem services and urbanization is a hot and frontier field of international human-earth system research. This study selected 325 counties in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and estimated the ecosystem services balance and the level of urbanization in 1995, 2005, and 2015 through the ecosystem services supply and demand balance assessment matrix method and urbanization-related indicators. Meanwhile, the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and spatial measurement model were used to explore the spatial relationship between ecosystem services balance and urbanization. The results showed that:(1) during the study period, the ecosystem services balance in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has deteriorated, while the level of urbanization continued to rise. (2) There was a significantly negative correlation between the ecosystem services balance and urbanization, and the spatial clustering patterns of different regions showed heterogeneity. (3) The spatial measurement model with added control variables was proved to be more suitable for explaining the spatial relationship between the ecosystem services balance and urbanization. It showed that the impact of urbanization on the ecosystem services balance had a negatively external effect, and this negatively external effect gradually weakend when urbanization reached a certain stage. Finally, we suggest that in the process of urbanization, ecological space should be managed as a whole; cross-regional cooperation needs to be tried; and ecological and economic resources should be shared and complemented.





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