摘要:以中国沿海地区海洋渔业产业生态系统为研究对象，采用适应性循环理论将中国海洋渔业产业生态系统划分三个适应性循环圈，一个贫穷陷阱及构成适应性循环圈所需的若干个适应性循环，揭示中国海洋渔业产业生态系统适应性循环问题。结果表明：（1）1949年以来中国海洋渔业产业生态系统依次经历了第一个适应性循环的前环中环阶段（1949-1965年）、贫穷陷阱（1966-1976年）、第二个完整的适应性循环（1977-1985年）以及第三个适应性循环的前环阶段（1986年至今）；（2）海洋渔业产业、海洋渔业生态环境、海洋渔业社会环境是触发整个系统由开发到保护到释放再到更新转变的关键要素；（3）市场需求、政策制度响应和资源限制分别是推动中国海洋渔业产业生态系统适应性循环的外部扰沌力和内部驱动力。



Abstract:Adaptive cycle is a basic theory for understanding the continuity of complex systems, and it is more conductive to explain the nonlinear and uncertainty of the system. The case of the marine fishery industry ecosystem in coastal areas of China was selected. By using adaptive cycle theory, this paper divides the system into three adaptive cycles, a poverty trap and a plurality of adaptive cycle stages, revealing the problems of the adaptive cycle of the marine fishery industry ecosystem in China. The results are as follows. (1) Since 1949, Chinese marine fishery industry ecosystem has experienced successively the first anterior and middle stage of adaptive cycle (1949-1965), poverty dilemma (1966-1976), the second complete adaptive cycle (1977-1985) and the third anterior stage of adaptive cycle (1986-now). (2) Marine fishery industry, marine fishery ecological environment and marine fishery social environment were key factors to trigger the industry ecosystem from development (γ) to protection (κ), release (Ω), and renewal (α). (3) From the evolution of the adaptive cycle of the marine fishery industry ecosystem, the responses of the market demand and policy system were the main external panarchy forces to promote the system evolution, and the resource restriction became the internal driving force.





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