摘要:城市水生态承载力能较好反映水资源-水环境-水生态-经济社会复合系统间多要素互馈关系，水生态文明城市建设对城市水生态系统具有多方面影响，对城市水生态承载力在水生态文明城市建设前后的变化进行定量研究具有重要意义。以城市"社会-经济-自然"复合生态理论为指导，充分考虑人类活动与城市水生态系统的响应关系，基于DPSIR框架构建城市水生态承载力评价指标体系，以水生态文明建设试点城市武汉市为例，综合运用熵权法、TOPSIS和障碍度诊断模型等方法，分析2008-2019年武汉市水生态承载力的变化趋势和影响因素。结果表明，水生态文明城市试点建设期间（2015-2017年）的水生态承载力平均水平（0.552）明显高于建设前（0.361）和建设后（0.438），建设成果主要体现在压力和影响指标的改善以及响应指标的大幅度提升上。阻碍武汉市水生态承载力提升的主要指标为生态环境状况指数、建成区绿化覆盖率、农田灌溉亩均用水量、酸雨量和饮用水源地水质达标率。根据评价结果提出水城共生共荣发展模式、引导产业结构转型等提升武汉市水生态承载力的建议。



Abstract:Urban water ecological carrying capacity can effectively reflect mutual feedback relationship of various factors in the compound system of water resources-water environment-water ecology-economy and society. The construction of a water ecological civilization city (WECC) has a multi-faceted impact on the urban water ecosystem. It has important theoretical value and practical significance to scientifically analyze the changes in the urban water ecological carrying capacity before and after the construction of the WECC. This paper took the "society-economy-nature" compound ecological theory as the guidance, fully considered the response relationship between human activities and urban water ecosystem, selected DPSIR model to build the evaluation index system of urban water ecological carrying capacity. Moreover, taking Wuhan City as an example, we comprehensively used entropy weight method, TOPSIS Model and obstacle diagnosis model to analyze the change trend and influencing factors of water ecological carrying capacity of Wuhan City from 2008 to 2019. The results of the TOPSIS model showed that the construction achievements were mainly reflected in the improvement of indicators in the pressure and impact rule level, as well as the substantial improvement of indicators in the response rule level. This revealed that while the economy and society of Wuhan City are achieving rapid development, the pressure on urban water ecosystem was gradually increasing, and the changes in the aquatic environment of Wuhan City had a certain impact on production and life. Moreover, the average level of water ecological carrying capacity (0.552) of Wuhan City during the pilot construction period (2015-2017) was higher than that before (0.361) and after (0.438) the pilot construction. How to maintain the positive impact of the construction achievements of the WECC construction was an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the obstacle diagnosis model, we found the main factors hindering the improvement of water ecological carrying capacity of Wuhan City were indicators of ecological environment index, the green coverage rate of built-up area, the average water consumption per mu of farmland irrigation, acid rain frequency, and the water quality compliance rate of drinking water source. The results provided decision-making reference for the planning, management and protection of urban water ecosystems, and can also explore the achievements and obstacles of the construction of a water ecological civilization city. Furthermore, the suggestions were proposed to improve the water ecological carrying capacity of Wuhan City, such as the symbiotic and co-prosperity development model of water city and the transformation of industrial structure.





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