摘要:利用广西北部湾红树林生态区6个市（县）的国家气象观测站1961-2019年气象资料以及海平面资料，分析近60年来该生态区基本气候要素、极端天气气候事件及海平面的变化趋势及其对红树林的影响，并分析未来气候变化对区域红树植物可能造成的影响。结果表明：北部湾红树林生态区年平均气温、年平均最低气温升高，高温日数增多，低温日数和年降水量变化趋势不明显。最长连续无降水日数多数市（县）变化趋势不明显；年霜冻日数减少；热带气旋影响个数减少但平均强度呈微弱增大趋势；大风日数减少；海平面呈缓慢上升趋势。根据RegCM4区域气候模式预估，未来40年（2021-2060年），在RCP4.5情景下，相对于参照时段（1986-2005年），该生态区年平均气温将上升0.9-1.4℃，年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均升高，高温日数增多、低温日数减少；年降水量将增多1%-2%；最长连续无降水日数增多；霜冻日数减少；预计未来30年，广西沿海的海平面较2019年上升40-160mm。年平均气温和极端气温的升高以及冬季低温日数和霜冻日数的减少将有利于热带红树植物的北扩；夏季高温导致的蒸发加剧及夏秋季最长连续无降水日数增多，可能加剧红树林病虫害。极端灾害性天气气候事件、海平面上升和人为影响等多重作用会对红树林分布格局产生重大影响，导致红树林生态退化风险增大。



Abstract:By using the meteorological data of the national meteorological observation stations of six cities (counties) and sea level data of mangrove biome in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi from 1961 to 2019, the basic climatic factors, extreme weather and climate events, sea level change trends and their impacts on mangroves in the past 60 years were analyzed, and the possible impacts of future climate change on regional mangrove plants were analyzed. The results indicate that, the annual average temperature and the annual average minimum temperature in the Beibu Gulf mangrove ecosystem increased. The number of high temperature days increased, the variation trend of the number of low temperature days and annual precipitation were not obvious. The longest continuous days without precipitation in most cities (counties) have no obvious change trend, and the number of annual frost days decreased. The number of tropical cyclone influence decreased but the average intensity increased slightly.The windy days decreased and sea levels are slowly rising. According to the RegCM4 regional climate model, under the RCP4.5 scenario, compared with the reference period (1986-2005), the averagely annual temperature in this ecological area will rise by 0.9-1.4℃, the annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature will both increase, the number of high temperature days will increase and low temperature days will decrease. The annual precipitation will increase by 1% to 2%, the longest continuous number of days without precipitation will increases,and the frost days will decrease in the next 40 years (2021-2060). It is estimated that in the next 30 years, the sea level along the coast of Guangxi will rise by 40-160 mm compared with 2019. The increase of annually mean temperature and extreme temperature, the decrease of cold days and frost days in winter will be both beneficial to the northward expansion of tropical mangrove plants. The increase of evaporation caused by the high temperature in summer, the increase of the longest consecutive days without precipitation in summer and autumn may aggravate the diseases and insect pests in mangroves. The multiple effects of extreme weather and climate events, sea level rise and anthropogenic influences will have a significant impact on the mangrove distribution pattern and the increased risk of ecological degradation.





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