摘要:城市群是区域经济发展的重要空间载体，探究天山北坡城市群城市景观扩张变化对边疆城市群的区域经济发展、城市规划、生态安全等有重要意义。研究借助GIS、Fragstats、Dyna-CLUE等软件，基于1990、2000、2005、2010、2015年空间分辨率30 m土地利用数据，采用景观扩张指数（LEI）、扩展强度指数（UEⅡ）、重心转移、多情景模拟等方法揭示天山北坡城市群的景观扩张模式及演变规律。主要结论为：①从景观指数来看，近25年来天山北坡城市群城市景观变化表现为破碎度增大、异质性增强、斑块形状趋于复杂；②从扩张模式来看，1990-2015年，天山北坡城市群的城市扩张模式以飞地式为主，其次为边缘式扩张，不同时期内扩张模式占比有所差异；③从扩张轨迹来看，城市群城市扩张重心总体由城市群的中心-乌鲁木齐的西侧向东、南移动；④从多情景模拟来看，Dyna-CLUE模型能够较好地模拟不同情景状态下的城市扩张与土地利用变化特征，2025年城市群扩张模式将以飞地式、边缘式为主。研究结果可为天山北坡城市群城市的未来发展和布局规划提供参考，为国土空间的管理与调控、生态环境的布局优化等提供决策依据。



Abstract:Urban agglomeration is an important spatial carrier of regional economic development. It is of great significance to explore the landscape expansion and change of urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains for the regional economic development, urban planning and ecological security of border urban agglomeration. By using GIS, Fragstats, Dyna-CLUE and other software platforms, and based on the spatial resolution data of 30 m land use in 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the landscape expansion index (LEI), expansion intensity index (UEⅡ), center of gravity transfer, multi-scenario simulation and other methods were used to analyze the landscape expansion pattern and evolution law of the urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains. The main results showed that: (1) from the perspective of the landscape index, the urban landscape fragmentation and the spatial heterogeneity increased and complicated of patch shape during the past 25 years in the urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains. (2) From the perspective of expansion mode, the urban expansion mode was mainly outlying type, followed by edge-expansion type during 1990-2015 in urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains. The proportion of expansion mode was different in different periods. (3) From the perspective of expansion trajectory, the center of urban expansion in urban agglomeration generally moved from the west side of Urumqi, the center of urban agglomeration, to the east. (4) From the multi-scenario simulation, Dyna-Clue model can better reflect the characteristics of urban expansion and land use change of urban agglomeration in different scenarios. The multi-scenario simulation showed that the expansion mode of urban agglomeration would be mainly outlying type and edge-expansion type in 2025. The research results can provide reference for the future development and layout planning of urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains, and provide decision-making basis for the management and regulation of territorial space and the layout optimization of ecological environment.





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