摘要:三北防护林体系建设工程区（以下简称"三北工程区"）早期的植被建设忽略了水资源承载力，对三北防护林的可持续维护产生了不利影响。为落实"以水定林草"的发展理念，在三个空间尺度上，基于1951-2018年降水量，采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法、自回归积分滑动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model，ARIMA）和地理信息系统空间分析等方法，开展全年、生长季和非生长季降水量多尺度变化趋势与未来30年预测研究，结果表明："三北工程区"全年和生长季降水量呈增长趋势的面积百分比分别为73.64%和70.10%，主要分布在西北荒漠区；非生长季降水量呈增长趋势的面积比例达92.06%，除黄土高原南部和风沙区的少部分地区而外，均呈增长趋势。全年、生长季和非生长季降水量呈增长趋势且置信度为90%以上的面积百分比分别为45.43%、37.31%和36.79%。18个重点建设区的雷达统计图显示：生长季与全年降水量的变化趋势一致，由东向西，松辽平原等7个区域以不显著减少趋势为主，松嫩平原等7个区域以不显著增长趋势为主，西部的柴达木盆地等4个区域以显著性达到90%或95%的增长趋势为主；非生长季除晋陕峡谷、泾河渭河流域以非显著减少趋势为主而外，其他地区均以增长趋势为主。5个"重点县"的降水统计量UF_k与其反序统计量UB_k两条曲线出现交点，表明年降水量有突变发生，库尔勒市、磴口县、科尔沁左翼后旗UF_k与UB_k曲线多处出现交点，表明年降水量突变发生频繁。采用ARIMA预测得出未来30年的年降水量，计算得到未来30年间的年降水量变化数据，并绘制其空间分布图。本研究可为三北工程区开展基于水资源承载能力的林草资源优化配置提供基础数据，为发展"雨养林草植被"提供科学支撑。



Abstract:The vegetation construction in the early stage of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program had neglected the carrying capacity of water resources, which resulted in a negative impact on the sustainability of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest maintenance. In order to implement the development concept of "water to define the forest and grass", this paper was conducted in three spatial scales on the basis of 1951-2018 precipitation series. By using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model prediction and ArcGIS spatial analysis methods, we completed the trend analysis of annual precipitation, growing season precipitation, non-growing season precipitation, and predicted future precipitation in the following 30 years. The results showed that the areas in growing trend of annual precipitation and growing season precipitation were of 73.64% and 70.10% respectively, mainly distributed in the northwest desert area of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program region. The areas of growing trend in non-growing season precipitation was of 92.06%, apart from few parts of the southern loess plateau and the sandy area, in which most of the areas were in growing trend. Areas in growing trend of annual precipitation, growing season precipitation, and non-growing season precipitation with confidence degree above 90% were of 45.43%, 37.31% and 36.79% respectively. Radar statistical map of eighteen main construction areas showed that the changing trend of growing season precipitation was consistent with the annual precipitation. From east to west, Song-liao Plain and other seven regions are dominated by the trend of non-significant decrease, Songnen Plain and other seven regions are dominated by the trend of non-significant increase, and the Qaidam Basin and other four regions in the west are dominated by the trend of 90% or 95% significant increase. Non-growing season precipitations are mainly in an increasing trend, with the exception of the Jinshaan Gorge and the Jinghe-Weihe river basin, which are in a non-distinctive decreasing trend. In five key counties, precipitation statistic curve UF_k and its reverse statistic curve UB_k are intersected, which indicates that there had been a sudden change in their annual precipitation. And in Korla city, Dengkou county and Horqin left wing rear banner, the two curves are multiply intersected, indicating that the annual precipitation changes frequently in these areas. The ARIMA model is used to predict the annual precipitation data in the next 30 years, the annual precipitation change data for the next 30 years is calculated and the spatial distribution maps are completed. This study can provide basic data for the optimal allocation of forest and grass resources based on water resource carrying capacity, and provide scientific support for the development of "rain-fed forest and grass vegetation" in Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program region.





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