摘要:重点生态功能区承担着保护与修复生态环境、提供生态产品的重要任务，农户作为该区最重要的生态保护主体，面临着多重风险的冲击，其对生计风险的多维感知不仅会影响其生产行为决策，更关系到重点生态功能区主体功能的发挥，因此，急需准确地了解农户的生计风险多维感知及影响因素，为制定有效的生计风险防范体系提供借鉴。以甘南黄河水源补给区为例，基于多维度生计风险感知测量框架，利用入户调查数据，分析了农户的生计风险感知，并采用经济计量模型分析了影响农户生计风险感知的关键因素。结果表明：①甘南黄河水源补给区农户面临的主要生计风险为家庭发展需求风险、健康风险、社会风险，且重点保护区农户面临环境风险、家庭发展需求风险、政策风险的比例均显著高于恢复治理区和经济示范区农户。②农户对家庭发展需求风险的熟悉性、自愿性、持续性感知均最高，对健康风险的恐慌性、严重性及可能性感知均最高，对社会风险的可控性感知最高。其中，重点保护区农户对政策、市场及健康风险的可控性感知均高于其他区域。③人力资本对可能性感知、严重性感知、恐慌性感知、熟悉性感知产生了显著影响；物质资本对自愿性感知产生了显著影响。最后，提出了农户防范生计风险的对策建议。



Abstract:The key ecological function area undertakes important missions to protect and repair the ecological environment and to provide the ecological products. As the most important subject of ecological protection, farmers face the impact of multiple risks. The multi-dimensional perception of risks not only affect their production behavior decisions, but also affect the main functions of key ecological functional areas. Therefore, it is urgent to accurately understand the multi-dimensional perception of farmers' livelihood risks and its influencing factors, so as to provide reference for formulating effective livelihood risk prevention system. This paper selected the Yellow River Water Supply Area of Gannan as study area. Based on 527 households survey data, we analyzed the features of farmers' perception to livelihood risk and its key impact factors by using the econometric model. The results show that:① The family development needs risk, health risk and social risk have been the main livelihood risks which farmers are facing in the Yellow River Water Supply Area of Gannan. The proportion of farmers who face environmental risks, family development needs risk, and policy risks in key conservation zones are significantly higher than those of the farmers in restoration zones and economic demonstration zones. ② Farmers' familiarity perception, voluntary perception and continuance perception of family development needs risk are strong. Farmers' panic perception, severity perception, and probability perception of health risk are strong. Farmers' controllability perception of social risk is strong. The farmers' perception of the controllability of policies risk, markets risk, and health risk in key conservation zones are higher than those in other regions. ③ Human capital has significant direct impacts on probability perception, severity perception, panic perception, and familiarity perception. The physical capital has significant direct impacts on voluntary perception. Finally, we put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for farmers to prevent livelihood risks.





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