摘要:研究农业碳排放率时空格局演变及驱动因素对指导农业碳减排和实现农业低碳化发展具有重要意义。对1997-2016年中国31个省域的农业碳排放率进行测度，在此基础上采用ESTDA框架和GWR模型从时空关联视角对其时空动态演变特征及驱动因素进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）中国农业碳排放率空间正相关性呈减弱趋势，农业碳排放率空间差异逐渐扩大。（2）中国农业碳排放率的时空格局动态变迁路径差异明显，局部空间结构和空间依赖方向上都具有较强的稳定性。（3）协同增长型省域数量呈现减少趋势，表明中国农业碳排放率的空间格局整合性下降且由协同增长主导型向协同与竞争并存的格局转变。（4）农业碳排放率具有较强的局部空间关联模式和空间转移惰性，表现为一定的路径依赖或空间锁定特征。（5）农业碳排放率驱动因素的空间非均衡联动局域性特征显著，农村经济发展水平的影响程度从南向北依次递减，居民收入状况和种植结构的分布趋势为从东向西依次递增，耕地面积构成状况对东北地区农业碳排放率的提升作用高于中西部地区，耕地规模对农业碳排放率具有负向作用，回归系数从东南向西北依次递增。



Abstract:Studying the evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of agricultural carbon emissions rate and their driving factors and realising the development of low agricultural carbonisation is highly significant in helping guide the carbon reduction of agriculture. This study calculated the agricultural carbon emissions rate in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2016. To do this, the Exploratory Time-space Data Analysis (ESTDA) framework and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model were used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors from the perspective of spatiotemporal connection. The results showed that (1) the positive spatial correlation of China's agricultural carbon emissions rate is weakening, and the spatial variation of inter-provincial agricultural carbon emissions rate shows an expanding trend, (2) the spatial and temporal pattern of China's agricultural carbon emissions rate has obvious differences in dynamic transition paths, and they have strong stability in both local spatial structure and spatial dependence, (3) the number of synergistic growth provinces shows a decreasing trend, indicating that the spatial pattern of agricultural carbon emissions rate is declining and the transition changed from a synergistic growth-oriented type to a coexistence of synergy and competition, (4) the agricultural carbon emissions rate has a strong local spatial correlation model and spatial transfer inertia, which is characterised by path-dependence or spatial lock-in, and (5) spatial disequilibrium linkage characteristics of driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions rate are significant, and the effect of economic development level decreases gradually from south to north. The distribution pattern of residents' incomes and planting structure increases from east to west. The effect of cultivated land area contributes significantly to the increase in the carbon emissions rate of agriculture in northeast China. The scale of cultivated land has a negative effect on the carbon emissions rate of agriculture, and the regression coefficient gradually increases from southeast to northwest.





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