摘要:流域径流的变化及其原因的研究，是森林水文领域的一个重要的科学问题。当前，大部分研究基于年尺度定量分析了流域径流变化及其影响因素的贡献率，而季节尺度上的研究较少。因此，季节尺度上径流变化的归因分析值得深入研究。基于彭冲涧小流域1983-2014年降水、径流等水文气象资料，通过Mann-Kendall检验法对降水、径流序列进行突变分析，采用累积量斜率变化率比较法计算季节及年尺度上降水变化、蒸发散和植被恢复对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：2003年为降水与径流的一致突变点；春、夏、秋、冬季及年降水变化的贡献率分别为50.88%、42.60%、-10.39%、-3.28%和31.26%，蒸发散的贡献率分别为32.89%、40.71%、29.33%、47.43%和42.64%，植被恢复的贡献率分别为16.23%、16.69%、81.06%、55.85%和26.10%。季节尺度上，春、夏季，降水变化和蒸发散是径流深减少的主要原因，而秋、冬季，植被恢复居主导地位；年尺度上，蒸发散对径流深减少的贡献率最大。该研究揭示了彭冲涧小流域近30年来径流变化规律以及不同时间尺度上影响径流的主要驱动因子，为流域水资源合理配置和管理提供科学依据。



Abstract:Studying runoff change, and its causes is an important scientific issue in forest hydrology. Presently, most studies have quantitatively analyzed the contribution rate of runoff change and its influencing factors based on annual scales, whereas few studies have been conducted on seasonal scales. Therefore, the attribution analysis of runoff change on a seasonal scale needs further study. Based on the daily precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff from 1983-2014 in Pengchongjian, a small watershed, a Mann-Kendall test method was applied to analyze the abrupt point of annual precipitation and runoff. Ultimately, the slope change ratio of accumulative quantities (SCRAQ) method was used to separate the contribution rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration between annual and seasonal runoff. The results indicated that:a consistent abrupt point of year 2003 was found both for annual precipitation and runoff; the results from the SCRAQ method suggested that in both season and annual scales, the decreasing runoff depth could be ascribed to variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration. Specifically, precipitation explained 50.88%, 42.60%, -10.39%, -3.28%, and 31.26%, evapotranspiration explained 32.89%, 40.71%, 29.33%, 47.43%, and 42.64%, and vegetation explained 16.23%, 16.69%, 81.06%, 55.85%, and 26.10% of the decreasing mean runoff depth in the spring, summer, autumn, winter, and whole year, respectively. We concluded that precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors regulating the runoff variation in spring and summer, vegetation restoration played a major role affecting runoff variation in autumn and winter, and evapotranspiration contributed the most on an annual scale. This study revealed runoff changes and the main driving factors at different time scales in the Pengchongjian watershed over the past 30 years; thus, provided a scientific basis for the basin rational allocation and management of water resources.





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