风险决策的概率权重偏差：心理机制与优化策略

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孙庆洲, 邬青渊, 张静, 江程铭, 赵雷, 胡凤培(

)

浙江工业大学管理学院, 杭州 310023

收稿日期:2018-08-23出版日期:2019-05-15发布日期:2019-03-20
通讯作者:胡凤培E-mail:fengpei@zjut.edu.cn

基金资助:* 教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC630155);国家自然科学基金青年项目(No.71801193);国家社科基金(No.14BSH070)

Probability weighting bias in risky decision making: Psychological mechanism and optimizing strategies

SUN Qingzhou, WU Qingyuan, ZHANG Jing, JIANG Chengming, ZHAO Lei, HU Fengpei(

)

School of Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China

Received:2018-08-23Online:2019-05-15Published:2019-03-20
Contact:HU Fengpei E-mail:fengpei@zjut.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。“重结果轻概率”的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差; 改变“概率”的描述形式、“结果”的情绪体验、“损益”的参照点、风险的心理距离等可调整权重偏差、优化决策。未来需深究权重偏差的适用情境、机制关联及偏差辨别等问题。

图/表 3

图1概率权重偏差的辨别力参数(左)和吸引力参数(右)

图2概率权重偏差的“注意分配”解释机制示意图

图3概率权重偏差的“参照点-情绪体验”解释机制示意图

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