Multi-scenario trade-off on water resources utilization in the Daqing River Basin
JIANG Luguang,1,2, YANG Cheng1,2, FENG Zhiming1,2, LIU Ye1,21. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
收稿日期:2020-09-8修回日期:2021-01-13
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42071253) 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503501)
Received:2020-09-8Revised:2021-01-13 作者简介 About authors 姜鲁光,男,山东临沂人,博士,副研究员,主要从事土地利用变化与自然资源综合评估研究。E-mail: jianglg@igsnrr.ac.cn
Abstract As a key area for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China, the Daqing River Basin has a tense population-water resource relationship, and it is important to examine the possible conflicts and countermeasures of water resource utilization in the area to ensure the sustainable development of the basin. Based on the quantitative evaluation of water and soil resources in the Daqing River Basin and the relationship among water, soil, grain production, and people, this study explored the characteristics of change of water-grain production relationship under the three scenarios of inertia development, fallow policy, and water saving, and proposed the water-grain production trade-off optimization scheme in the basin. The results show that under the current land use structure, the Daqing River Basin can be self-sufficient with grains with a small surplus, but excessive water consumption in agricultural production makes groundwater overdraft a serious problem. Although the policy of cropland fallow has been implemented in the basin, the amount of water resources saved is far less than that of groundwater overdraft. In order to control groundwater overdraft and balance water supply and demand in the basin, it is necessary to expand the fallow area of winter wheat in the eastern and southern plain of the Baiyangdian Lake by 25.3×104 hm2, or increase the water diversion by 7.2×108 m3. By 2030 the Daqing River Basin will face the dual pressure of food security and water resource security when the water resource gap of basin reaches 13.8×108 m3. It is necessary to increase the inter basin water transfer in the future and expand the fallow area of winter wheat to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the basin. Keywords:crop planting system;water resource security;grain security;scenario analysis;trade-off;Daqing River Basin
PDF (0KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 姜鲁光, 杨成, 封志明, 刘晔. 面向多目标情景的大清河流域水资源利用权衡[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1649-1661 doi:10.18402/resci.2021.08.12 JIANG Luguang, YANG Cheng, FENG Zhiming, LIU Ye. Multi-scenario trade-off on water resources utilization in the Daqing River Basin[J]. RESOURCES SCIENCE, 2021, 43(8): 1649-1661 doi:10.18402/resci.2021.08.12
Figure 7Average irrigation water demand during crop growth period in the Daqing River Basin, 1981-2010
Table 2 表2 表21981—2010年大清河流域作物生育期平均需水量和灌溉需水量 Table 2Water demand and irrigation water requirement during crop growth period in the Daqing River Basin, 1981-2010
Table 4 表4 表4大清河流域不同冬小麦休耕措施下节水潜力和粮食产量变化 Table 4Water-saving potential and grain yield in the Daqing River Basin under different winter wheat fallow schemes
Table 5 表5 表5大清河流域不同灌溉方式下作物灌溉耗水量和节水潜力 Table 5Water consumption and water-saving potential of crop irrigation under different irrigation schemes in the Daqing River Basin
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