Abstract Low-carbon development has become the main theme of economic and social development in China in the new era. In the process of economic transformation of resource-based economy of Shanxi Province, reducing carbon emissions and enhancing sustainability are the foundation for the transition to high-quality development. Based on the panel data of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2017, this study employed the synthetic control method to study the effect of the “Comprehensive Reform Zone” policy on carbon emissions. A mediating effect model was also established to investigate the key influencing factors and mechanism of influence. The results show that: (1) The reform policy of resource-based economy can effectively restrain the increase of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province. During the study period, compared with the carbon emission increase of 135.5% in the synthetically modeled result of Shanxi Province, affected by the policy, the actual carbon emissions in the province only increased by 89.6%, reducing carbon emissions by 6.55×107 tons in total. (2) In the short term after the policy is implemented, environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading both have effectively reduced carbon emissions at the 5% significance level. Environmental regulation played a mediating role while industrial structure upgrading functioned as a direct driving factor. (3) In the short term, financial development and technological innovation have increased the carbon emissions at the significance level of 10% and 5%, respectively. The results show that the policy of comprehensive reform zone has contributed to the low-carbon development of Shanxi Province by strengthening regulation and industrial transformation. However, it is still necessary to further consider the implications of financial development and scientific and technological innovations. Keywords:resource-based economy transition;National Comprehensive Reform Zone;carbon emissions;synthetic control method;mediating effect model;Shanxi Province
PDF (3053KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 于智涵, 方丹, 杨谨. 资源型经济转型试验区政策对碳排放的影响评估——以山西省为例. 资源科学[J], 2021, 43(6): 1178-1192 doi:10.18402/resci.2021.06.10 YU Zhihan, FANG Dan, YANG Jin. Impact of the “National Comprehensive Reform Zone for Resource-Based Economy” policy on carbon emissions: A case study of Shanxi Province. RESOURCES SCIENCE[J], 2021, 43(6): 1178-1192 doi:10.18402/resci.2021.06.10
Figure 1Influencing mechanism of resource-based economy comprehensive reform zone on carbon emissions
3 方法、变量与数据
3.1 研究方法
3.1.1 合成控制法
本文采用Abadie等[32]首次提出的合成控制法(synthetic control method,SCM),基本思路是对现有多个备选控制单元进行适当加权,合成一个控制组,根据可观测的经济特征与干预前结果变量选择控制组与确定权重。具体做法是在构建控制组权重时通过测度预测变量之间的距离确定权重取值,由此得到最优权重组合。经过加权之后,合成地区的各项经济特征应该尽量接近处理地区。控制单元由数据驱动从样本省份中客观选取,选取的控制单元能够经过加权组合,较好地拟合政策实施前处理地区的各项特征。这样做可以最大程度地构建与处理组有相同碳排放演变趋势的控制组,同时可以展示出政策冲击前两者碳排放路径的相似程度。相比于双重差分法、双重差分倾向得分匹配法,合成控制法通过预测变量的数据来决定权重的大小,更好地避免了控制组的内生性偏误,以求构建与处理组在经济特征、演变趋势上最大程度相似的控制组。以控制组作为对照对处理地区展开分析,更具有说服力[32]。
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