An empirical study on the influence of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province
ZOUXiuqing1,, XIEMeihui1,, XIAOZegan2, TUXiaosong1, WANGYan1, XUGuoliang1 1. College of Tourism and Urban Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032, China2. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China 通讯作者:通讯作者:谢美辉,E-mail: 451849880@qq.com 收稿日期:2018-01-19 修回日期:2018-05-12 网络出版日期:2018-08-25 版权声明:2018《资源科学》编辑部《资源科学》编辑部 基金资助:江西省自然科学基金项目(20171BAA208016)江西省研究生创新项目(YC2017-S220)国家自然科学基金项目(41701196) 作者简介: -->作者简介:邹秀清,男,江西庐山人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为土地经济与制度。E-mail: zxqing888@263.net
关键词:农业人口转移;城市建设用地增加;城镇化;固定效应模型;随机效应模型;江西省 Abstract With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the area of urban construction land has been increasing, when a large number of agricultural population keep transferring to cities. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of agricultural population transfer on the growth of urban construction land,which is of great significance for promoting the construction of new urbanization and achieving the real transfer of agricultural population.Based on the statistical data of 11 cities in Jiangxi province from 2006 to 2015,the fixed effect and the random effect model were used to study the influence of the agricultural population transfer on the increase of urban total construction land and different types of urban construction land. The results show that the transfer of agricultural population in Jiangxi had a significant positive impact on the growth of urban construction land, and passed the test under one percent level. What's more, the transfer of agricultural population also exerted significant effects on the growths of urban industrial-commercial land, urban residential land and traffic-green-square land, and quite obvious in the scope of ten percent,one percent and five percent respectively, and the influence coefficients correspondingly were 0.167, 0.155, and 0.135. However, with the transfer of agricultural population, there has been no significant growth in urban public facilities-service land.There are regional differences among different cities, when the increase of different types of construction lands are impacted by the agricultural population transfer.Thus, it is concluded that the transfer of agricultural population will enhance the total amount of urban construction land. Thus, according to the process of agricultural population transfer, the government should moderately increase the urban public facilities land, rationally layout different types of urban construction land, for effectively promoting the construction of new urbanization and finally realizing the urbanization of agricultural population.
Keywords:agricultural population transfer;growth of urban construction land;urbanization;fixed effect model;random effect model;Jiangxi Province -->0 PDF (2734KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章收藏文章 本文引用格式导出EndNoteRisBibtex收藏本文--> 邹秀清, 谢美辉, 肖泽干, 涂小松, 王彦, 徐国良. 江西省农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(8): 1515-1525 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2018.08.03 ZOUXiuqing, XIEMeihui, XIAOZegan, TUXiaosong, WANGYan, XUGuoliang. An empirical study on the influence of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province[J]. RESOURCES SCIENCE, 2018, 40(8): 1515-1525 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2018.08.03
本文重点关注的是农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响。在借鉴邓胜华等[6]、赵可等[27,29]、张勇[36,37]研究的基础上,考虑到城市建设用地的增加可能会受到经济发展水平、产业结构调整状况、固定资产投资、城市人均绿地等诸多因素的影响,故将这些变量均作为控制变量纳入模型。为了尽量避免异方差,提高结果精确度,本文对模型的变量将采用自然对数或两者比值的方法进行运算。详细的变量设置与计算方法见表1。 Table 1 表1 表1城市建设用地增加及其影响因素的变量设置与计算方法 Table 1Variables setting and calculation methods of the increase of urban construction land and its influencing factors
计量模型结果表明:①Hausman检验结果显示除了表2中交通绿地广场用地模型选择随机效应模型外,其他模型均选择固定效应模型;②VIF计算值均在1~10之间,表明不存在多重共线性问题;③对存在异方差、序列相关及截面相关的固定效应模型,采用Driscoll & Kraay的估计方法来处理;对随机效应模型和不存在异方差、序列相关及截面相关的模型进行聚类稳健性估计。 Table 2 表2 表22006—2015年江西不同类型城市建设用地增加模型估计结果 Table 2The model estimation on growth of different types of urban construction land in Jiangxi from 2006 to 2015
居住用地
工商用地
交通绿地广场用地
公共设施用地
固定效应
固定效应
随机效应
固定效应
β 值
t 值
β 值
t 值
β 值
z 值
β 值
t 值
农业人口转移(POP)
0.155***
3.20
0.167*
2.02
0.135**
2.23
0.154
1.71
城市经济发展水平(EDP)
0.123
0.26
1.060**
2.28
-0.071
-0.47
-1.060*
-1.85
固定资产投资(INV)
0.041
0.16
-1.212***
-4.27
0.487***
3.61
0.661
0.21
产业结构调整(INDS)
0.901
0.75
0.534
0.49
0.407
0.42
1.420
1.74
城市人均绿地(AGL)
-0.860*
-2.16
0.917
1.27
-0.256
-0.54
0.897*
2.49
常数项
0.503
0.28
6.134
5.93
-6.006
-3.57
6.259
2.57
样本量
120
120
120
120
模型修正结果
Driscoll & Kraay
Driscoll & Kraay
聚类稳健
聚类稳健
hausman检验P值
0.019
0.000
0.961
0.002
R2
0.063
0.088
0.210
0.137
F统计量
23.010
22.760
52.850
11.720
F检验P值
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
注:*、 ** 、***分别表示在10%、5%、1%水平下显著。 新窗口打开 表3中的第一个模型为不进行稳健性处理的基准回归,在此基础上,对模型中的异方差、序列相关及截面相关进行系统性处理,得出较稳健性结果,即表中的第二个模型,且模型估计结果与研究假说H1相一致。根据第二个模型可知,农业人口转移与城市建设用地增加之间存在单调递增关系,并通过了1%水平下的显著性检验。其回归系数0.260表明,农业人口每转移10%城市建设用地总面积将增加2.60%。究其原因,结合前面理论分析及相关研究,本文认为农业人口转移一方面可以流转出部分农用地转为城市建设用地,促使城区向外扩展,城市建设用地面积增加;另一方面农业人口转移至城市,居住、生产、出行等需要土地作为最基本的投入要素来满足人们的基本生活需求,由此导致城市住房、工商业、交通道路等建设用地的增加。数据显示,2006—2015年南昌和上饶农业人口转移和城市总建设用地增加水平最高,作为中国首批资源枯竭型城市的萍乡建设用地增加水平最低,九江、景德镇、萍乡由于缺乏就业吸纳能力强的加工制造业,对农业人口转移就业的容纳力有限。 Table 3 表3 表32006—2015年江西城市总建设用地增加模型估计结果 Table 3The model estimation on growth of the total of urban construction land in Jiangxi from 2006 to 2015
本文基于江西省11个地级市2006—2015年的统计数据,探讨了农业人口转移对城市总建设用地和不同类型城市建设用地增加的影响。实证结果表明: (1)农业人口转移与城市总建设用地增加之间存在显著的正相关关系,而经济发展水平的影响系数0.619大于农业人口转移的影响系数0.260,进一步表明,发展经济更能促进城市建设用地增加。 (2)不同类型的城市建设用地随农业人口转移呈现出不同程度的增加,并根据各类城市建设用地影响系数,得到各类城市建设用地受农业人口转移的影响程度大小为:工商用地>居住用地>交通绿地广场用地,整体上符合城市建设用地规划及居民需求增长规律。 (3)不同地区农业人口转移影响不同类型城市建设用地增加存在区域差异。南昌、赣州、上饶3市农业人口转移与城市总建设用地增加处于各地市较好水平,其中,南昌市居住用地增加最多,赣州市工商用地、交通绿地广场用地和公共设施用地增加最多;宜春、新余、抚州、吉安、鹰潭农业人口转移与城市建设用地增加整体处于各地级市中间水平;农业人口转移水平最低的是九江和景德镇,萍乡各类建设用地变化处于收缩阶段。 由于农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响广泛而复杂,鉴于土地资源的有限性,城市建设用地面积不可能无限制的增加;另外,随着国家乡村振兴战略的实施,农业人口转移是否还会对城市建设用地总面积及不同类型城市建设用地增加产生影响?如果有影响,是此消彼长还是同步、异速增长?这些问题值得进一步探讨。此外,现实中一些地区的非本地户口的城市常住人口迁移对城市建设用地增加同样具有重要的影响,但江西目前的城市居住证登记还未完全普及,对非本地户口的城市常住人口统计还不够全面,无法对其作深入研究。因此,期望在后续的研究当中,进一步跟踪政府相关政策及统计数据,不断完善现有研究,同时也为经济欠发达地区的农村发展、城市内部空间有序扩展及空间格局优化提供更加丰富的理论参考。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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