LIQingbo1,, AOChanglin1,, YUANWei1, GAOQin1,2 1. Department of Management Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China2. International Education Institute, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai 264005, China 通讯作者:通讯作者:敖长林,E-mail:aochanglin2002@126.com 收稿日期:2017-07-10 修回日期:2018-02-8 网络出版日期:2018-08-25 版权声明:2018《资源科学》编辑部《资源科学》编辑部 基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171044)山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016GM21) 作者简介: -->作者简介:李庆波,男,山东济南人,硕士生,研究方向为资源环境管理。E-mail:liqingbo1116@163.com
关键词:出版选择偏差;Meta分析;湿地;效益转移;中国 Abstract Meta-analysis is an effective method of benefit transfer, which has been widely used in the evaluation of wetland resources. However, due to the existence of publication selection bias in the sample data, the accuracy of the evaluation result is affected. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a meta-regression model which can eliminate the influence of publication selection bias. The value transfer database was established through collecting the empirical research results of the application of CVM to evaluate the value of wetlands in China and an appropriate meta-regression model was chosen by examining the existence of the publication selection bias in the database or not. Then, the model of value transfer was established, and the effectiveness of out-of-sample value transfer was examined. FAT-PET test results show that there is no publication selection bias in the database, which demonstrates that the sample of the literature selected in this paper is more representative and the sample data are not affected by publication selection bias. Meta-regression results indicate that the types of wetland services, wetland location, wetland type, wetland area, number of beneficiaries and the difference in the format of the questionnaire will lead to the difference in the valuation of wetland value. However, the way of questionnaire survey, per capita GDP, research time and periodical quality had no significant impact on the valuation of wetland value. The error range of out-of-sample benefit transfer in meta-regression model was 0.08%~39.02%, and the average error was 9.58%. Thus, the meta-regression model can be used for out-of-sample benefit transfer.
文献数据来源于中国知网,共检索到73篇应用CVM评估湿地价值的文献。基于两个标准选取文献:一是相关文献可以提供一个或多个湿地价值观察值;二是文献中包含所有Meta分析所需的解释变量。因此,许多文献因数据不完整未被纳入到本文的Meta分析中。研究最终使用的数据包含46篇文献,其中33篇是期刊文献,13篇是硕士学位论文,具体统计信息如表1所示。在46个研究中共有69个观察值,平均每个研究有1.5个观察值。单个研究中观察值最多有9个,最少有1个。 Table 1 表1 表1Meta回归分析中CVM研究列表 Table 1List of CVM studies included in the Meta-regression analysis
通过FAT-PET检验,判断出版选择偏差是否存在。使用SPSS 23软件,采用方程(2)所示的回归模型,进行FAT-PET检验,结果如表3所示,表中分别列出了应用普通最小二乘法(OLS)和加权最小二乘法(WLS)的检测结果。由于样本量越大,研究精度越高[19],所以为保证精度高的观察值赋予较大权重,在应用WLS时,使用样本量的平方根作为权重。标准差系数在两个模型中均不显著,说明价值转移数据库中没有出版选择偏差。因此采用方程(3)进行回归分析。 Table 3 表3 表3FAT-PET检验结果 Table 3The test result of FAT-PET
(1)研究包含的样本文献相对较少,与国外相关研究的研究数量以及样本观察值个数有明显差距。这与中国应用CVM评估湿地价值研究的现状有关。虽然近年来国内CVM研究成果逐年增加[73],但与国外相比仍然较少,且研究内容多为对国外理论和评估方法的介绍,实证研究数量较少。 (2)目前,国内CVM研究的研究成果与国际研究之间的差距逐渐缩小,但仍存在问卷引导方式单一、提供信息不全、研究质量参差不齐等问题。因此,为使价值转移模型中包含充足的解释变量,提高效益转移的准确性,使得许多文献未被纳入本文的最终数据库中。这种对样本的筛选可能会产生“样本选择”偏差,需要在以后的研究中进一步探索。 (3)近年来,国际上湿地Meta分析的研究样本,通常来源于多个国家,使样本具有较好的代表性,如Brander等的研究样本来自25个国家[1]。研究类型则涵盖湿地、珊瑚礁[74]、城市空地[75]、森林[20]等不同类型。而中国在这方面的研究仍处于起步阶段,有待于进一步开展相关的实证研究,系统和深入地探讨湿地生态系统服务价值转移的理论与方法。 (4)为了促进Meta分析在中国湿地价值评估领域的应用,提高该方法的有效性和可操作性,相关部门应该建立湿地价值评价的标准和规范,以及湿地价值转移数据库,以此作为湿地Meta分析的数据来源,增强湿地Meta分析和效益转移的有效性和可靠性。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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