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1979—2014年长沙市城市功能用地扩展与驱动力研究

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叶强1,, 莫正玺1,, 许乙青1,2
1. 湖南大学建筑学院,长沙 410082
2. 湖南大学设计研究院有限公司,长沙 410006

The expansion and driving forces of the functional space land: A case study of Changsha from 1979 to 2014

YEQiang1,, MOZhengxi1,, XUYiqing1,2
1. School of Architecture, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China
2. Hunan University Design And Research Institute Co., Ltd, Changsha 410006, China
通讯作者:通讯作者:莫正玺(1992-),女,湖南省常德人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市空间结构和信息经济学。E-mail: plan_mzx@hnu.edu.cn
收稿日期:2017-11-28
修回日期:2019-01-12
网络出版日期:2019-05-13
版权声明:2019《地理研究》编辑部《地理研究》编辑部
基金资助:国家自然科学基金(51878252)湖南省重点研发计划(2018NK2051、2018NK2053)
作者简介:
-->作者简介:叶强(1964-),男,江西省上饶人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为城市商业空间结构理论研究。E-mail: yeqianghn@163.com



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摘要
基于长沙市中心城区1979年、1989年、2003年、2011年、2014年5个年份的土地利用现状图,借助ArcGIS、SPSS分析工具,提取居住、工业、服务三大功能用地,从方向、圈层、强度、用地间转变及轴带趋向对长沙城市功能用地扩展的时空特征及驱动力进行研究。结果表明:① 用地扩展模式以“圈层式、轴带式”为主,并逐渐向“多组团式”过渡,由单一的向外扩展向内部功能间演替和外部扩展相结合转变。整体扩展方向经历了由“东、南、东南-西北、东、东南、北”的变化,但各类用地的扩展方向有所差异;② 从扩展强度看,居住用地远远高于城市总体扩展强度,造成了城市功能空间失衡的现象,服务配套明显滞后,部分分区在扩展过程中,出现了与规划定位严重不符的矛盾;③ 功能用地间的转变主要集中在城市核心区,表现出以核心-外围明显分异的差距。外围片区的功能较为单一,融合度不够,未来应增强配套服务功能。④ 从经济驱动力、政策调控力、生态制约力与吸引力、社会助推力四个方面分析了功能用地扩展时空差异的驱动因素。⑤ 从“问题导向-现象归纳-本质剖析-策略应对”提出了城市功能用地扩展研究的基本研究框架。

关键词:城市功能用地;扩展特征;驱动力;长沙市
Abstract
The expansion of urban functional space has always been a core issue in the study of urban geography and urban planning. In this paper, we mainly focus on the following three types of urban functional spaces: residential space, industrial spaces and service space, and we take the central city of Changsha as our study area. Based on the land use map covering the years of 1979, 1989, 2003, 2011 and 2014 as well as corresponding statistical yearbooks, in combination of taking GIS and SPSS statistical tools, this article analyzed the dynamic features and driving forces of the functional space evolution of Changsha by citing a variety of models such as sector fractal, “center-periphery” spheres density, expansion intensity, coupling degree and axial sprawl index. The results were obtained as follows: (1) The urban functional space of Changsha's central city expanded rapidly between 1979 and 2014. And the pattern of extension was still displaying the “circle mode” and “axis belt mode”, but gradually transited to “polycentric structure”. In the process of quick external expansion, the urban land also filled internally in the study period. The direction of functional transformation presented a phase difference clearly, which had experienced the process of “east, south and southeast” from 1979 to 1989 to the “northwest, east, southeast and north” during 2011 to 2014. Meanwhile, it showed some differentiation of different types of functional land. (2) Residential space showed excessive expansion and guided other spaces extension, which was incompatible with other functional urban spaces, causing an imbalance in urban functional space. Some zones even showed serious contradiction with city planning during the process of expansion. (3) Functional spaces coupling showed significant “core-peripheral” geographic differentiation, and mainly focused on the core area. Functional space types in peripheral area were relatively single, which means that the level of alignment was insufficient. To strengthen urban comprehensive competitiveness, local government should improve service function and promote functional integration. (4) This study also probes the dynamic driving forces of the evolution of the functional space in Changsha City, mainly including economic, administrative, ecological and social factors. And the administrative factor played a significant role in the evolution. (5) We propose the basic research framework for the study of urban functional land expansion from "problem orientation -phenomenon induction - essential analysis - strategy response", which can provide theoretical guidance for optimizing the internal space structure and improve the functional efficiency of the central city.

Keywords:urban functional land;expansion characteristics;driving force;Changsha

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叶强, 莫正玺, 许乙青. 1979—2014年长沙市城市功能用地扩展与驱动力研究[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(5): 1063-1079 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj020171193
YE Qiang, MO Zhengxi, XU Yiqing. The expansion and driving forces of the functional space land: A case study of Changsha from 1979 to 2014[J]. Geographical Research, 2019, 38(5): 1063-1079 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj020171193

1 引言

城市功能用地作为城市各项功能活动的空间载体,也是城市各类要素资源互相交换的关键媒介[1],同时也是城市化进程及城市空间结构变化的外在映射。改革开放后,我国经历了高速度、大规模的城镇化发展进程,许多大城市在建设过程中由于忽视了城市内部功能用地的重要性,普遍存在无序扩张、职能失衡、交通拥堵、配套不足等问题。而目前我国大多数城市空间正在经历由外部扩张向内部重构优化的关键阶段,《国家新型城镇化发展规划(2014—2020年)》明确提出需优化城市内部空间结构,对中心城区功能进行改造提升。因此如果不厘清城市功能用地的演变规律,对其加以科学地引导和控制,那么将在一定程度上造成城市资源浪费,降低城市空间利用效率,影响城市更新和功能提升,加重城市管理工作的负担,降低城市的宜居性。
城市功能用地研究始于20世纪20年代—40年代的西方发达国家,其中如《雅典宪章》、“田园城市理论”、《马丘比丘宪章》、“城市分区理论”、“有机疏散理论”以及“同心圆、扇形、多核”学说是该领域研究的代表性理论[2]。20世纪60年代,城市功能用地扩展逐渐得到关注,其扩展的形态特征、模式类型、影响因素及模拟调控等研究日趋成熟并积累了丰富成果[3],研究方法与理论的多样化则体现了社会学、经济学、人口学、城市规划学、地理学等多学科在城市功能用地方面交叉融合的趋势[4]。国外对于城市功能空间的研究历时性长,研究体系比较全面,时段性特征明显。国内于20世纪80年代中期开始对城市功能空间展开研究。① 从研究阶段看,周春山等****将我国关于城市空间及演变的研究成果划分为西方相关理论的引入和国内研究的初始期(20世纪80—90年代)、国内城市空间结构研究的积累期(90年代中期—21世纪初)、城市功能空间结构模式的总结和新城市功能空间的多元化时期(21世纪至今)3个主要阶段[4]。② 从研究内容看,目前主要是将城市建设用地作为一个整体来探讨其扩展态势[5,6,7,8]、扩张效应[9,10,11]、动力机制[12,13,14,15]、动态模拟[16,17,18,19]等研究居多,对城市内部功能用地关注较少,且主要集中于某单一类型功能用地,尤其以占城市主体的居住用地分布与演化研究为主[20,21,22,23],少数****就功能用地间耦合特征[24,25,26,27]进行了实证研究。③ 从研究方法看,多是借助于遥感影像解译、土地利用数据以及GIS地理信息系统等技术手段,从宏观角度提取城市用地数据,来分析城市土地扩张强度、格局演变及土地转变特征,很难对城市内部不同功能用地进行细分研究;对城市功能演变测度的常见方法和模型主要有空间重心法、圈层分析法、轴带扩展度、扩展强度指数、标准椭圆差等,来定量描述城市功能用地在空间分异和时间分异两个维度上所表现出来的规律。④ 从研究区域看,主要集中于东部经济发达的行政单元,对于其他区域城市尤其是中部地区城市研究的关注度不够。目前有部分****已经对长沙市的城市建设用地扩张[28,29,30]展开了研究,但缺乏对城市内部功能空间的细致研究。
长沙是湖南省省会,近年来在“一带一路”、长江经济带、中部崛起和长株潭城市群建设等国家重要战略的驱动下发展迅速,已成为长江中游地区重要的中心城市。① 长沙自建国以来就开始有组织地城市建设,至今经历了7轮城市总体规划修编。在1978—1990年,长沙市城镇建成区规模年均增长率仅为7.47%,2003—2016年年均增长率高达12.92%,2016年建成区规模已达364 km2。这说明近年来长沙扩张速度迅猛增长,城市功能空间很可能发生了系列变化与转换。② 长沙市城市空间格局具有典型的“山水洲城”特征,也经历了跨河发展的历史进程,在我国众多城市发展历程中具有一定的代表性。③ 长沙市2016年年末常住人口为791.81万人,城镇化率为77.59%,是中部地区重要的特大城市,地区生产总值达到9455.4亿元,其中第三产业占生产总值比例达到48.26%,超过了第二产业占比,城市功能逐渐向服务型转型。综上所述,从时间持续性、地域特色性和规模代表性来看,选取长沙作为研究对象具有代表性。利用长沙市1979年、1989年、2003年、2011年和2014年的土地利用数据,定量研究长沙城市功能空间扩展的方向特征、圈层特征、强度特征、用地转变特征及轴带特征,阐述城市内部空间扩展的时空差异,分析各类城市功能用地的协调关系,再与城市总体规划对比分析,总结演变过程中存在的问题和驱动力,并提出城市功能用地扩展研究的基本框架,对明晰改革开放以来我国城市在经历大规模城市化建设中的规律和问题,合理规划引导中心城区建设及功能空间优化,有着普遍的现实意义。

2 数据来源及研究方法

2.1 研究区概况

本文以《长沙市城市总体规划(2003—2020)(2014年修订)》中所界定的中心城区的范围作为研究区域,并参照总体规划的分区划定,将研究区细分为15个分区:中心、省府、圭塘河、新世纪、金霞、暮云、黄黎、星马、黄花、空港、麓山、市府、高星、麓谷以及坪浦分区,总面积1142 km2图1)。
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图1长沙市中心城区示意
注:根据《长沙市城市总体规划(2003—2020)》规划分区图改绘。

-->Fig. 1Sketch map of the central city in Changsha
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2.2 数据来源与处理

本文数据主要包括统计数据与用地数据。其中统计数据来源为历年长沙统计年鉴、长沙市统计公报和中国城市统计年鉴。用地数据包括长沙市中心城区地形图(1∶20万)和长沙市1979年、1989年、2003年、2011年、2014年的城市总体规划用地现状图,其中2003年和2014年的数据为DWG格式,1979年、1989年和2011年的数据为JPG格式。依据地形图,运用ArcGIS10.1软件对用地现状数据进行转换并选择多个控制点进行几何配准与图像校正。根据新版的城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准(GB50137-2011),将1979年、1989年、2003年、2011年4个年份的用地类型进行重新归类与整理,使其与2014年的用地数据一致。根据本研究的实际需要,主要对居住用地、工业用地、服务用地3类用地进行分析,其中本研究中的服务用地包括公共管理与公共服务设施用地和商业服务业设施用地,工业用地包括工业用地和物流仓储用地,居住用地对应居住用地。运用GIS提取居住用地、工业用地、服务用地的用地边界、用地性质及地块面积等信息,建立长沙中心城区用地空间数据库,运用叠加分析、缓冲区分析等GIS分析方法,分析城市用地外部扩展及内部转变。

2.3 研究方法

2.3.1 扇区分形法 扇区分形法[31]是选取具有实际研究意义的中心点作为原点,然后以原点作出8个均等的扇形区,分别对应8个城市用地拓展方向:北、东北、东、东南、南、西南、西和西北(图2)。在此基础上,统计各个扇区内的用地增量,用来判断城市的拓展方向。本文根据长沙建城历史及发展实际,以1949年旧城区的几何中心为原点作等分扇区,再运用GIS的擦除(Erase)和裁剪(Clip)等工具,提取各扇区的用地面积。
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图2扇区及圈层划分示意
-->Fig. 2Diagram of sector and circle division in Changsha
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2.3.2 圈层分析法 圈层分析法可以更为细致地分析城市功能用地“中心-外围”的发展态势,先选取中心点,以其为圆心,再等距离向外圈层推移。本研究以上述扇区分形法的原点为圆心,结合长沙市城市环路的实际情况,以1000 m为半径作外推圈层30个(图2),计算中心城区各个圈层的用地密度,公式[32]如下:
Pi=AiMi×100%(1)
式中:Pi为第i圈层某类用地的密度;Ai为第i圈层某类用地面积;Mi为第i圈层的总面积。
2.3.3 扩展强度指数 扩展强度指数[33]是表示某研究时段某类城市功能用地的扩张面积与该类功能用地总面积的比例,用于表征不同阶段的用地扩张的强弱态势,公式如下:
I=Lb-LaLa×1N×100%(2)
式中:I表示某研究时期该类功能用地的扩展强度指数;LaLb分别表示研究年份ab的功能用地面积;N指研究年数。
2.3.4 轴带扩展度 轴带扩展度[34]可以反映功能用地空间分布对于城市线性轴带的依赖程度。本文对轴带扩展度进行变形,考虑不同时段的时间长短不同,引入研究初期a和研究末期b及研究时段N,更好地用年均轴带扩展来修正时段影响,测度城市用地沿主要水系扩展的情况。
E=SEb-SEaLAb-LAa/N(3)
式中:E表示轴带扩展度;SEaSEb分别指研究年份ab某类城市用地沿主要水系扩展的用地面积;LAaLAb分别表示研究年份ab研究范围内该类用地的总面积;N为研究年数。
2.3.5 用地转变系数 用地转变系数能从定量的角度对城市各类功能用地相互转变的动态演变进行分析,表征某研究时期两类城市功能用地间相互转变的面积占发生变化的这两类功能用地总面积的比值,该系数值越大,说明这两类功能用地间相互转变的程度也越高[35],公式如下:
FGCC=CFG+CGFCF+CG-CFG-CGF×100%(4)
式中:FGCC为“服务用地-工业用地”转变系数;CFGCGF分别指服务用地转变为工业用地和工业用地转变为服务用地的面积值;CFCG则分别为两个时期功能用地数据相叠加处理以后功能性质发生了变化的服务和工业用地面积值。同理可得,JFCCJGCC为“服务用地-居住用地”转变系数和“工业用地-居住用地”转变系数。

3 长沙市中心城区功能用地扩展的特征

3.1 扩展方向特征

依据扇区分形法,判断长沙市近35年来的用地空间扩展方位(表1)。总体来看,1979—2014年长沙市中心城区整体用地扩展方向主要集中在东、南与东南,东北、西北和北3个方向次之,西与西南扩展态势最弱。服务用地主要向东、南、东北、东南4个方向扩展,目前尚未出现新的方向性突变,而居住用地在由东南、南、东扩张后,近几年开始新增了西北、北2个方位的扩张,工业用地以朝东、北、西北、南方位扩展为主,这说明服务用地与居住用地和工业用地的扩展方向产生了偏差。同时,由于不同时期城市建设重点有所侧重,因而又表现出阶段性的扩展方向差异。① 1979—1989年,城市空间扩展以旧城区为基础,受湘江的自然限制,主要朝东、南、东南3个方向扩展,湘江大桥的建成(1972年)使得城市向西开始突破湘江的自然限制,服务用地扩展方向大致与城市整体扩展保持一致。② 1989—2003年,主要以东、南、东南、东北方向扩张为主,向西则进一步突破了湘江水系的自然限制,同时南二环南北两侧的用地逐渐融合成片,东二环向东的用地突破了京广铁路的限制,呈摊开式扩展。③ 2003—2011年,主要朝东、南、东北、东南4个方向扩展,向东突破了京港澳高速的限定,星马分区与城市主体融合成片,向北突破了石长铁路的限定,同时在三一大道以南、机场联络路以西的空港分区出现了小规模的飞地式扩张。居住用地以向南、东扩展为主,工业用地向东扩展最为突出,形成了高新区、经开区、高科技园等工业集聚区,岳麓大道-三一大道成为连接东西工业园区的轴带,而服务用地以向东、南扩展最为强烈,与居住用地和工业用地扩展方向未保持同步。④ 2011—2014年,主要朝西北、东、东南、北4个方向扩展,而服务用地仍以向东、南扩展为主,与城市整体扩展趋势出现了较大的方向性偏离。尤其在西北方位,服务用地仅为居住用地和工业用地的1/4和1/3,服务配套严重不足。
Tab. 1
表1
表11979—2014年长沙市中心城区居住、工业和服务用地分布及扩展主导方位对比
Tab. 1Comparison of leading directions of residential, industrial, service and overall functional land distribution and expansion in central city of Changsha from 1979 to 2014
时期总功能用地居住用地工业用地服务用地
1979—1989年E、S、SESE、S、EN、NES、SE、N、EE、S、SE、NE
1989—2003年E、S、SE、NE、WS、E、SE、NEE、S、SE、NE、S、NE、SE
2003—2011年E、S、NE、SES、E、NE、SEE、N、S、WE、S、NE、SE
2011—2014年NW、E、SE、NNW、E、N、SENW、E、S、SEE、S、NE、SE


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3.2 中心-外围特征

圈层分析结果显示,1979—2014年长沙市功能用地扩展总体经历了明显的圈层式外部扩展到与内部镶嵌式填充相结合的过程,目前正出现飞地式外延再向多组团发展过渡的演变,同时也呈现出较为明显的“中心-外围”特征,即从中心到外围功能用地的密度呈现逐渐下降的趋势(图3a)。长沙城市空间的边缘由1979年距原点12 km推进到1989年的16 km,再向外推进至2014年的25 km(图3a),近35年圈层半径向外增加了1倍左右,充分体现了用地向外扩展的速度之快和跨度之大。但城市向外扩展主要是由居住用地主导(图3b—图3f),服务用地大多分布于8 km以内,服务用地的峰值在1979—2003年一直处于3 km左右,2003—2011年在中心圈层极化效应进一步增强,2011—2014年紧随居住空间向外扩展的趋势,服务空间出现峰值向外推移并出现多个峰值的趋势(图3e、图3f)。
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图31979—2014年城市空间和各类用地“中心-外围”圈层用地密度变化
-->Fig. 3The change of density of land on urban space and contrast of “center-periphery” spheres density of lands from 1979 to 2014
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在用地扩张顺序上,工业用地先于居住、服务用地实现由中心向外围扩展,工业用地波峰由1979年的4 km逐步外移至2011年的8 km,再到2014年继续向外扩展形成多个波峰(8 km,10 km,16 km)。在1979—2003年各类功能用地主要集中在中心圈层,从2003年开始居住用地引导城市空间向外扩展成为重要特征,其用地密度在各圈层都高于服务用地和居住用地。服务用地密度普遍偏小,中心-外围特征更为明显,除2 km内与居住用地相差不大外,4 km以外均小于工业用地和居住用地的密度,这表明长沙外围圈层以居住和工业用地扩张为主,核心区的工业空间逐步被居住、服务空间所替换。2014年,对应于城市“二环-三环”(10~12 km)、(15~16 km)和(20~21 km)范围,出现了新的服务空间波峰,说明外围区域在城市规划的逐步引导和统筹安排下,服务配套逐渐增强。

3.3 扩展强度特征

1979—2014年长沙市功能空间整体处于快速扩张状态,由最初的点状到带状再到面状扩展,目前大致形成了“米”字形扩展结构,城市空间扩展经历了“高速-低速-超高速-高速”的动态过程,并存在显著的阶段特征、空间分异以及用地间的差异。
(1)长沙市用地扩展可大致划分为4个阶段(图4)。① 1979—1989年,处于文革结束、改革开放的阶段,城市用地扩张速度加快,达到5.98%。其中,服务用地扩张强度为8.57%,高于工业用地(6.71%)和居住用地(3.79%);② 1989—2003年,用地扩张整体有所放缓,降低至3.08%,居住用地的扩张强度为4.60%,工业用地的扩张强度为2.28%,服务用地扩张强度仅为2.12%,并开始滞后于居住与工业空间扩展;③ 2003—2011年,城市建设进入了发展机遇期,从2007年长株潭城市群成功获批为全国两型社会建设综合配套改革试验区,到2009年国务院通过的《促进中部崛起规划》,长沙城市各功能用地的扩张强度达到历史最高值,整体用地扩张强度为16.54%,其中居住用地为25.87%,远远超过了城市整体扩张强度,约为服务用地(11.58%)的2倍、工业用地(7.80%)的3倍,城市三大主体功能用地开始出现较大幅度的空间扩展偏差;④ 2011—2014年,城市整体扩张有所放缓(6.91%),其中居住用地扩张强度为7.67%,服务用地为6.83%,工业用地为4.89%,服务用地与居住用地扩展强度差距明显缩小,并超过了工业用地扩展强度。这说明城市功能用地间的不匹配趋势得到了一定程度的控制与改善,服务配套用地日趋接近整体用地扩展强度。
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图41979—2014年主要功能用地扩张强度
-->Fig. 4Expansion intensity of different types offunctional land from 1979 to 2014
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(2)长沙市用地扩展强度存在着明显的空间分异(图5a)。根据GIS的Jenks自然间断点分级方法,将中心城区扩张强度分为4个等级。① 扩张最强的是位于城市三环外围圈层的黄黎分区(1.8167)、暮云分区(1.3695)和麓谷分区(1.3217)。黄黎分区依托高铁新城、地铁2号线、磁悬浮列车新型轨道交通及京港澳高速、长株高速对外交通迅猛发展;暮云分区借助长株潭一体化效应快速成长;麓谷分区以长沙高科技工业园区为载体,以梅溪湖国际新城为名片,发展势头强劲。② 扩张最缓慢的是位于城市二环圈层的市府、省府、麓山、中心分区及外部的黄花分区。麓山片区由于受岳麓山和湘江的自然限制,扩展强度最低;中心分区扩展强度弱,说明老城区已由扩张进入城市更新和功能修复阶段;市府和省府分区均是在行政机构迁移的驱动效益下快速成长起来的。
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图51979—2014年长沙市各分区用地扩展强度
-->Fig. 5The main functional space land expansion intensity of sub-districts in Changsha from 1979 to 2014
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(3)各个分区扩张强度也有所差异(图5b—图5d)。服务用地在麓谷分区扩展最为突出,其次为暮云分区,而位于城市核心的中心、市府、麓山、省府分区属于扩展强度最小的层级,没有最大化地发挥城市中心土地的经济效益。居住用地则在黄黎和金霞2个分区扩展强度最大,其次为麓谷、新世纪和圭塘河分区。工业用地在位于三环圈层的暮云、高星、黄黎3个分区扩展强度最大,而处于二环圈层的市府、麓山、省府、中心4个分区扩展强度最小,反映了土地经济效益的要求及退二进三的城市发展策略。参照城市总体规划中各分区定位,经对比分析发现(表2),高星、市府、中心、圭塘河、省府、暮云、坪浦以及空港8个分区与各自功能定位基本相匹配,展现了各分区的发展特色,表明了城市规划实现了较好的引导性,而麓谷、麓山、金霞、新世纪、黄黎、星马6个分区则表现出与规划定位不相符合的矛盾,表明城市规划在这几个分区缺乏有效实施性,其中金霞、黄黎、麓谷属于城市外围新开发建设的区域,应该依据实际发展情况对规划予以反馈,并对功能用地实施有效的控制和引导,尤其重视对房地产企业依托重点建设项目大规模、无序、高强度扩展的规范工作,防止城市功能出现严重不协调,职住功能相脱节,加重城市交通等问题。
Tab. 2
表2
表2各分区规划定位与实际扩展匹配情况
Tab. 2Analysis between planning and implementation of each sub-district of Changsha
分区规划定位实际类型匹配分区规划定位实际类型匹配
高星居住、工业居住、工业圭塘河体育休闲、居住居住、服务
麓谷高新产业、服务服务、居住×省府省级行政中心、居住居住、服务
坪浦居住配套、教育科研居住、服务暮云长株潭区域型公共服务、工业服务、工业
麓山科教文化功能居住×黄黎区域性商务办公、文化娱乐、研发创新居住、工业×
市府市级行政办公、居住居住、服务星马新型工业、高科技产业、航空、影视文化居住、工业×
金霞物流仓储、工业居住、服务×空港临空制造、物流、研发、商务、居住居住、工业
新世纪广播电视产业、休闲娱乐居住、服务×黄花尚不明确工业-
中心综合服务功能服务


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3.4 功能转变特征

城市在向外扩张的过程中,各类用地间也在不同程度地相互演替与转变,反映出了城市内部不同要素的活跃程度和各自的空间诉求,是城市空间扩展的内在特征,也是城市功能更新的象征,功能用地在不同时期的转变反映出不同时期城市性质与功能的变化,在不同区位空间的转变反映出城市功能集聚与扩散的过程。由计算结果可知,1979—2014年中心城区居住用地和服务用地转变系数为0.041,居住用地和工业用地转变系数为0.033,工业用地和服务用地为0.013,近年来各类用地之间在不断发生演替,但相互转变程度偏小。服务用地和居住用地的转变程度最高,其次为居住用地和工业用地,服务用地和工业用地间的转变程度最低。
(1)用地转变存在时段性差异,不同用地间的相互转变见证了城市性质和定位的变化。① 1979—1989年,服务用地和居住用地的相互转变量较大且几乎对等,说明改革开放初期城市服务功能和居住功能各要素迅速流动,而大量居住用地转变为工业用地,这符合1979年版的长沙市城市总体规划中定位的“综合性工业生产城市”城市性质;② 1989—2003年,工业用地转变为居住用地的规模高于居住用地转变为工业用地的规模,说明城市生产性功能开始下降,转向重视生活性功能;③ 2003—2011年,工业用地进一步被大规模的居住用地所替代;④ 2011—2014年,居住用地与服务用地的转变系数达到历史最高水平,城市服务性功能不断增强,这也体现了长沙综合实力日益增强。
(2)从各分区用地转变分异来看,整体表现为核心分区大于外围分区的特征,且表现出从二环-三环-外围递减的规律,处于城市二环以内的中心分区用地转变系数最高,各功能要素间流动性最强,以服务用地和居住用地的转变最为突出,外围9个分区则普遍较低(图6)。造成以上现象的原因主要有“退二进三”策略及产业转型升级的需要,因此中心分区有污染的工业纷纷外迁,落后的棚户区提质改造,城市涌现了许多新的商业综合体;地租理论决定了中心-外围的功能差异,越靠近中心,通常对承租能力较高的土地功能产生向心力,而对承租能力较低的则产生离心力。城市外围用地目前大多仍处于城市新开发建设阶段,以用地扩张为主,因而用地间转变系数相对偏低。
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图61979—2014年长沙市中心城区主要用地类型转变
-->Fig. 6Distribution of the main types of land use conversion from 1979 to 2014
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4 长沙市城市功能用地演变驱动力

目前,众多****对我国城市空间扩张的驱动因素已经形成了较为丰富的研究成果,高金龙等将已有成果大致划分为经济学派(认为城市扩张是市场经济下自发的市场力作用的结果)、制度学派(从制度体制和政治经济学角度)和经验学派(基于大量文献阅读及已有研究综述),对中国城市空间扩张的驱动机理进行了总结,并提出仅从单一角度对城市扩展的动力分析都会有所欠缺(经济学派稍显理想化、制度学派忽视了中观和微观尺度、经验学派缺乏从理论高度详细阐述要素选择的过程)[36]。因此,本文结合已有研究与长沙实际,着重从经济驱动力、政策调控力、生态制约力、社会推动力四大主要因素对功能用地扩展演变进行分析。城市功能用地是多方受力载体,其中经济驱动力是根本,政策调控力是多方利益博弈的保证,生态制约力是基础门槛,社会助推力是催化剂。四大驱动力相互影响、相互作用,使城市用地在扩展过程中产生集聚与扩散,从而形成不同的用地演变模式(图7)。
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图7城市功能用地扩展驱动力
-->Fig. 7The driving force of functional land expansion
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4.1 生态制约力与吸引力

自然生态是城市发展的基底,对城市空间结构、用地布局、发展方向等均有重要影响。一方面,长沙中心城区地处低山、丘陵地带,湘江将城区一分为二,西岸的岳麓山等低山丘陵,一定程度上限制了城市用地向西扩展,因此在相当长一段时间,用地扩展集中向东、南、东南向发展。另一方面,中部为沿河冲击平原,水资源丰富,是城市起源的重要地带,用地对水系表现出一定的轴带趋向性,形成了南北走向的湘江综合服务轴带,引导城市向南北延伸。
为了更直观反映城市功能用地对水系的轴带趋向性,运用缓冲区分析(Buffer)对主要水系进行1000 m缓冲区分析,并计算轴带扩展度指数。① 缓冲区内各功能用地结构也不断变化,其中居住用地的比例逐渐提高,由43%(1979年)提高至61%(2014年);而工业用地的比例逐步降低,由29%(1979年)降低为14%(2014年);服务用地的比例在25%~30%间,较为稳定,但有降低的趋势,由此可见滨水区域主要被居住功能所主导,代表城市公共服务的用地比例保持稳定但有待提升,产业功能逐渐迁出。② 从1979—2014年的轴带扩展度(图8)来看,缓冲区的用地规模占研究区域总用地扩张规模的比值逐年增加,说明近年各类用地在滨水区实现了快速扩展,扩张方式主要为镶嵌式填充。③ 缓冲区内的用地扩张强度表现出用地类型间的差异性,其中居住用地、服务用地为正向增长,而工业用地为负向增长。这主要与近年来长沙实行的“退二进三”的产业政策以及两型社会建设有关。同时,滨水土地资源以其稀缺的区位条件、宜居环境和独特景观而使土地富有更高的经济增值性,滨水区的相继开发推动着土地功能的置换。
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图81979—2014年沿水系轴带扩展度
-->Fig. 8Axial expansion index along the water system from 1979 to 2014
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4.2 政策调控力

政府政策指导和调控城市在未来一定时期的整体发展方向和建设重点。宏观层面的大政方针把控城市在区域发展中的潜力和位置,中观层面的城市规划和政策落实城市建设的具体方向和重点,微观层面的突出事件助推城市发展并激发新的潜能。长沙市在宏观-中观-微观政策的层层引导和驱动下,城市空间得到了快速扩展(表3)。
Tab. 3
表3
表3长沙市宏观、中观、微观三个层面的政策及影响
Tab. 3The macro, medium and micro policies and their influence on Changsha
政策核心内容影响
a.宏观层面——区域政策激励和带动
1995年“一点一线”以长株潭为一点,107国道、京珠高速、京广沿线为重点促进了建设用地向东、向南扩展
2007年长株潭两型社会改革试验区长株潭城市群的融合大河西先导区建设、长株潭绿心建设,城市向西、向南扩展加快
2009年中部崛起加快一点一线发展,进一步促进长株潭一体化推动长沙经济发展,增加区域人口吸引力,加速城区空间拓展
2013年“一带一部”长沙是首位城市和核心增长极迎来新的战略机遇,承接产业转移,促进城市空间优化升级
b.中观层面——城市规划引导与控制
编制了1979年、1990年、2003年城市总体规划,并于2011年、2014年两次进行修订城市性质
发展方向
用地结构
由“工业用地扩展较快”到“以居住、服务用地扩展为主”;
由“沿湘江、319国道向东向南”到“沿多条生长轴线发展”;
由“单中心”到“一轴两带多中心”;
产业转型升级退二进三工业用地逐渐郊区化,第三产业发展迅速,促进城市用地功能提升
交通网络牵引快速路:内外两环加放射线;
主要主干路:三横五纵;
地铁轨道的全面铺开;
高铁站、高铁西站、黄花机场区域性枢纽
加快了用地向主导方向扩张,牵引内部用地向郊区疏散,尤其是快速路在外围圈层对工业用地形成吸聚效应
c.微观层面——突出事件加速和助推
开发区的相继建设“四区八园”的建设,4个国家级开发区、8个省级开发区的建设工业用地外迁,并向星马、麓谷、金霞、暮云、坪浦、高星形成工业集聚区,吸引配套要素流入各组团
行政中心迁移省政府南迁,市政府西迁引导城市向南、向西扩展,尤其是吸引了大规模房地产企业迅速集聚
河西大学城建设以中南大学、湖南大学、湖南师范大学为核心巩固了“西文东市”格局,推进了教育科研及服务配套用地向西扩展
梅溪湖、洋湖垸、滨江新城、月亮岛、大王山等湘江新区重点建设项目打造国际化、生态化的宜居新城
打造滨江商业中心、度假胜地
拉动了片区居住、服务用地快速扩张,是长沙生态宜居、现代商务、度假旅游的典型代表


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4.3 经济驱动力

城市经济的飞速发展及人口的持续增长是城市空间扩展的根本驱动力。经济的快速发展势必推动作为空间载体的用地快速扩张,城镇化的不断推进使得大批人口实现城镇化转移,从而增加城市用地扩展的现实需求。近年来,长沙市GDP实现了飞速增长,从1978年的16.85亿元增加至2014年的7824.81亿元。运用SPSS统计工具对长沙市社会经济发展指标和GDP实行Pearson检验,数据表明:近年来长沙市的GDP数据与建成区面积(0.977)、实有房屋建筑面积(0.981)、城市人均可支配收入(0.987)、市区固定资产投资(0.996)呈现显著相关性,而市区人口数量与建成区面积(0.866)呈现显著相关。长沙市经济的快速发展,带动了房地产业的蓬勃发展。市辖区房地产投资额由1992年的33.02亿元增加至2014年的1310.50亿元,实有房屋建筑面积也从1990年的3192.26万m2增加至2014年的19177万m2,推动了以居住功能为主的用地扩张与功能置换。自1990年长沙实行城镇户籍制度改革以来,城市人口从550.05万(1990年)增长至671.41万(2014年),城市人均可支配收入也从1770元(1990年)增长至36826元(2014年),城市人口的持续增长是房地产业发展的强劲需求力,居民可支配收入的不断提高则意味着购买力和消费力的增强,从而推动城市功能用地的不断扩张与功能置换。

4.4 社会助推力

(1)随着公众参与意识的不断普及与增强,城市规划与建设越来越离不开公众的监督与参与。与此同时,互联网技术的扩散与增强,更加提高了公众参与各项规划工作的可能性和便捷性。近年来,长沙市将人本主义渗透到城乡规划编制与管理过程中,利用问卷调查、走访座谈、规划公示、网络平台和自媒体互动、规划知识普及等方式,充分调动公众参与规划决策的积极性和有效性。
(2)传统价值观念的影响。“逐水而居”、“智者乐山”、“天人合一”、“亲近自然”的传统居住观念依然占据主流,对城市用地扩展和演替起着意识形态的影响。因此,靠近自然环境优美的地段由于其稀缺性、共享性和休闲娱乐价值成为房地产开发商争先抢占的热点,是吸引城市各要素流入的重要因素。梅溪湖、洋湖垸、滨江新城等开发建设热潮是典型案例。
(3)现代多元的生活方式也促进了城市用地扩展。立体式公共交通的建成以及私家车的普及,极大地提高了居民出行的便捷性和可达性,压缩了城市各区域间的时空距离,促进了城市用地向外围区域扩展。同时,居民生活需求层次已由物质需求逐渐过渡到精神文化需求,对居住、商业、文化等城市空间产生了更高的需求,滨水高档小区、城郊高端别墅应运而生,商业综合体遍地开花,文化艺术中心等逐渐建成。互联网技术的普及改变了人们的购物、办公、交流和认知方式,使得居住选址更为灵活。

5 结论与讨论

5.1 结论

城市内部功能用地扩展研究是明晰城市各功能要素空间分布及动态演变的有效方式,是诊断我国快速城市化进程中城市各功能空间是否协调发展与有机融合的重要手段,也是验证城市规划实施有效性并反馈问题的关键环节。通过对长沙市中心城区近35年来功能用地在扩展方向、圈层变化、扩展强度、用地间转变及轴带趋向的研究,从时间演变、空间分异以及用地间差异等多维度探讨主要功能用地的扩展规律,发现:
(1)1979—2014年,长沙功能用地扩展经历了“高速-低速-超高速-高速”四个阶段,扩展方向经历了由“东、南、东南-西北、东、东南、北”的变化,扩展模式以圈层式扩张和镶嵌式填充为主,并开始向组团式过渡,由单一的向外扩展向内部功能间演替和扩展相结合转变。
(2)从圈层分析来看,城市用地扩展表现出了较为明显的“中心-外围”特征,用地密度从中心到外围逐渐下降,尤其是服务用地表现出极强的中心集聚性。工业用地则先于其他用地向外围圈层迁移。在向外推进的过程中,居住用地处于强势快速向外延展状态,虽然服务用地也随之向外围扩展,但仍然严重滞后于居住用地的速度,在距离城市中心7 km,14 km,20 km出现了城市功能空间严重失衡的现象。从阶段来看,居住用地在2003—2011年与服务空间和工业空间发生较大的偏离,引发了职住空间分离、服务配套滞后等问题,虽然2011—2014年偏差有所缩减,但依然与城市整体的扩张水平不相协调。从分区来看,出现了部分分区与规划定位不相吻合的局面,造成了分区间功能雷同,导致重复建设开发,降低了城市整体运行效率,亟需科学规划的引导和调控。
(3)城市内部正经历功能用地间相互演替的过程,不同时期的用地间相互转变见证了长沙城市性质与功能由“生产型”向“生活型”再到“综合服务型”演变的过程。不同区位的转变则反映出城市功能集聚与扩散的过程,整体表现为核心分区大于外围分区的特征,核心分区各要素间流动性强,城市功能不断得到更新,而外围分区属于新开发建设,以用地扩展为主,功能单一,用地间融合度不够。
(4)从生态制约力与吸引力、经济驱动力、政策调控力、社会助推力四个方面对长沙市功能用地扩展与演变的驱动力进行了分析,需要注意的是在城市不同发展时期各驱动力的贡献也有所差异。在城市发展早期,“山水洲城”的自然格局,决定了长沙用地扩展不同于其他城市摊大饼式连片发展,山地起伏的高差和自然水系的分割,极大地限制了城市用地发展方向,造成相当长时间内城市空间偏安一隅。随着经济发展和科技进步,自然因素的限制作用减弱,城市开始跨江发展,并朝多方拓展。近年来随着居民生活水平的提高,社会意识和需求层次也不断增强,人本主义意识与集体行为已成为监督和推动城市发展的重要力量。而政策调控则是贯穿于城市发展始终的因素,宏观层面的区域政策激励和带动决定了城市在区域的地位和扮演的角色,中观层面的城市规划引导与控制是保证城市正常运行与落实战略部署的重要环节,同时也是协调与平衡城市多方利益主体博弈的中间媒介,微观层面的突出事件则是加速和助推城市局部空间发展的催化剂。
(5)在此基础上,本文试图结合已有研究成果从现状特征、发展评价、比对分析、问题反馈、影响因素、优化调控等方面,提出分析与优化城市功能空间的基本研究框架(图9),遵循“问题导向-现象归纳-本质剖析-策略应对”流程,为城市内部功能用地研究提供参考性思路。
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图9城市功能用地扩展研究框架
-->Fig. 9Framework of research on the expansion of urban functional space
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5.2 讨论

当前长沙市已步入城市用地向外扩展与内部功能重构的转型时期,暴露出了我国许多大城市存在的功能紊乱与失衡的共性问题,突出表现为居住用地存在过快向外围扩展,与服务用地和工业用地表现出了极为明显的空间偏离,城市外围区域用地功能单一,配套服务相对滞后,造成了城市运行效率低下、资源重复浪费、功能融合度差等问题。在未来城市发展中,应该加强城市规划的前瞻性,增强城市总体规划与控制性详细规划及城市设计的衔接,提高规划的实施性与可操作性,并根据不同分区的地域特色与发展基础制定富有特色的定位策略,避免城市功能同质化与资源扎堆,中心分区更应注重辐射全城的综合服务性,边缘分区更多地是考虑服务周边的生活性或特色产业集聚,滨水分区则应加强城市文化功能、公共空间共享等,引导城市在不同阶段逐步实现规划定位目标与功能转变与融合。
本文的学术贡献在于:
(1)采用扇区分形、圈层分析、扩张强度、用地转变系数、轴带扩展度5种模型,较为系统地从时间、空间和用地3个维度对长沙三大功能用地扩展进行了长时段动态量化研究,同时也关注到用地与水系的耦合关系,丰富了中部地区城市内部空间研究成果;
(2)将用地扩展结果与城市规划进行比对分析,起到了验证城市规划实施性的效果,并将现状问题进行反馈,促进城市总体规划的修编;
(3)从现状特征、发展评价、比对分析、问题反馈、影响因素、优化调控等方面,提出分析与优化城市功能空间的基本研究框架。但本文由于时间限制,尚未对各类用地进一步细分讨论差异,也主要分析了城市建设功能用地,未考虑与绿地的互动关系。在未来的工作中将进一步加强研究尺度的细化,并与长沙类型相似的其他省份城市进行横向对比分析,提出优化调控城市功能的具体对策。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献 原文顺序
文献年度倒序
文中引用次数倒序
被引期刊影响因子

[1]渠爱雪, 卞正富. 徐州城市建设用地空间格局特征及其演化
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https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011100005URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Based on maps of urban land use in 1979, 1994, 2003, 2008,1 鈭50000 topographic map in 1994 of Xuzhou, with reference to the latest national standards of the land-use status classification (GB/T21010-2007), urban construction land was identified into residential land, industrial land, commercial and public service land, a vector database of the urban construction land was established and the 10m-10m grid database was generated by re-sampling in Xuzhou urban area. Then a spatial study on the urban construction land of Xuzhou was carried out in the aspects of distance, orientation and spatial pattern relationship, using the methods of GIS such as circle-layer and fan-shaped analysis based on the vector database, and spatial rhythmic analysis based on the grid database. The results were obtained as follows. (1) The line charts of distance about all the three types of urban construction land had the same process of changing from single-peak to multi-peak; both the crest location and the growth area of industrial and residential land had a trend of developing outward; industrial land replacement was steadily developing from the city center to the outer city; residential land had been decreasing within a scope of 0-5 km from the city centre since 1994; by contrast, the commercial and public service land had not a trend of developing outward and its growth had no continuity. (2) Commercial and public service land developed relatively slowly in each orientation; industrial land expanded steadily to the northeast industrial area and the northwest and south outer city; residential land and commercial and public service land expanded rapidly to the beautiful southeast which was set as the dominant orientation of the city. (3) With the rapid development of the city, the three types of urban construction land formed a relationship of discrete extension, then a relationship of cohesive extension; under the effect of the heavy industry, the commercial and public service land, which developed slowly and served industry to a large degree, and the industrial land displayed a relationship of discrete extension, and the characteristic that the industrial area and residential land separated from each other was relatively distinctive.
[Qu Aixue, Bian Zhengfu.Spatial pattern and evolution of urban construction land in Xuzhou
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https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011100005URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Based on maps of urban land use in 1979, 1994, 2003, 2008,1 鈭50000 topographic map in 1994 of Xuzhou, with reference to the latest national standards of the land-use status classification (GB/T21010-2007), urban construction land was identified into residential land, industrial land, commercial and public service land, a vector database of the urban construction land was established and the 10m-10m grid database was generated by re-sampling in Xuzhou urban area. Then a spatial study on the urban construction land of Xuzhou was carried out in the aspects of distance, orientation and spatial pattern relationship, using the methods of GIS such as circle-layer and fan-shaped analysis based on the vector database, and spatial rhythmic analysis based on the grid database. The results were obtained as follows. (1) The line charts of distance about all the three types of urban construction land had the same process of changing from single-peak to multi-peak; both the crest location and the growth area of industrial and residential land had a trend of developing outward; industrial land replacement was steadily developing from the city center to the outer city; residential land had been decreasing within a scope of 0-5 km from the city centre since 1994; by contrast, the commercial and public service land had not a trend of developing outward and its growth had no continuity. (2) Commercial and public service land developed relatively slowly in each orientation; industrial land expanded steadily to the northeast industrial area and the northwest and south outer city; residential land and commercial and public service land expanded rapidly to the beautiful southeast which was set as the dominant orientation of the city. (3) With the rapid development of the city, the three types of urban construction land formed a relationship of discrete extension, then a relationship of cohesive extension; under the effect of the heavy industry, the commercial and public service land, which developed slowly and served industry to a large degree, and the industrial land displayed a relationship of discrete extension, and the characteristic that the industrial area and residential land separated from each other was relatively distinctive.
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[3]申庆喜, 李诚固, 马佐澎, . 基于服务视角的长春市城市功能空间扩展研究
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https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.014URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
中国快速城镇化背景下城市功能空间迅速扩展引起了广泛关注。以长春市用地现状图和统计资料为数据源,借助Arc GIS和SPSS软件平台,引用多种模型基于服务空间视角研究了1995年以来长春市城市功能空间扩展的特征、效应与驱动机制。研究发现:1 1995~2013年长春市城市空间扩展迅速,扩展模式整体上以圈层式近域扩张为主,城市与服务空间整体的偏离问题始终存在,城市开发建设过程中服务空间明显滞后于城市空间的扩张。2城市空间快速扩展产生了城市蔓延、功能空间失衡和城市功能空间的优化升级等效应。3行政因素和社会经济因素是城市空间扩展的主要驱动因素,回归模型结果表明人口城市化和人居环境水平的提高是城市功能空间本质内涵扩展的社会经济核心因素。
[ Shen Qingxi, Li Chenggu, Ma Zuopeng, et al.The expansion of the functional space of Changchun city based on service space
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https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.014URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
中国快速城镇化背景下城市功能空间迅速扩展引起了广泛关注。以长春市用地现状图和统计资料为数据源,借助Arc GIS和SPSS软件平台,引用多种模型基于服务空间视角研究了1995年以来长春市城市功能空间扩展的特征、效应与驱动机制。研究发现:1 1995~2013年长春市城市空间扩展迅速,扩展模式整体上以圈层式近域扩张为主,城市与服务空间整体的偏离问题始终存在,城市开发建设过程中服务空间明显滞后于城市空间的扩张。2城市空间快速扩展产生了城市蔓延、功能空间失衡和城市功能空间的优化升级等效应。3行政因素和社会经济因素是城市空间扩展的主要驱动因素,回归模型结果表明人口城市化和人居环境水平的提高是城市功能空间本质内涵扩展的社会经济核心因素。
[4]周春山, 叶昌东. 中国城市空间结构研究评述
. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(7): 1030-1038.
https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.006URLMagsci [本文引用: 2]摘要
Cities in China have undergone unprecedented growth and transformation in the recent years. The research field on urban spatial structure in China expanded rapidly at the same time. To move the research forward during this period of exceptional growth, one of the important tasks is to provide a review or retrospect of the research progress in the past. A statistical analysis of the relevant studies since 1980s indicates the research progress has gone through three time periods: In the first period, from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, the research focused on the introduction of western theories and initial case studies of the cities in China; the second period is from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, in which the research emphasized empirical studies of the cities; in the third period, since the early 2000s, studies have been focusing on general urban spatial structure pattern and new urban spatial phenomena. Compared to the relevant research elsewhere in the world, six fields need to be highlighted in the future research: general urban spatial structure pattern of the cities in China, new urban spatial phenomena, resource efficient urban spatial expansion, thorough studies on urban spatial structure mechanism, micro scale space, and applications of new research methods.
[Zhou Chunshan, Ye Changdong.Progress on studies of urban spatial structure in China
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https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.006URLMagsci [本文引用: 2]摘要
Cities in China have undergone unprecedented growth and transformation in the recent years. The research field on urban spatial structure in China expanded rapidly at the same time. To move the research forward during this period of exceptional growth, one of the important tasks is to provide a review or retrospect of the research progress in the past. A statistical analysis of the relevant studies since 1980s indicates the research progress has gone through three time periods: In the first period, from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, the research focused on the introduction of western theories and initial case studies of the cities in China; the second period is from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, in which the research emphasized empirical studies of the cities; in the third period, since the early 2000s, studies have been focusing on general urban spatial structure pattern and new urban spatial phenomena. Compared to the relevant research elsewhere in the world, six fields need to be highlighted in the future research: general urban spatial structure pattern of the cities in China, new urban spatial phenomena, resource efficient urban spatial expansion, thorough studies on urban spatial structure mechanism, micro scale space, and applications of new research methods.
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2009.06.001URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Urban expansion and spatial patterns of urban land have a large effect on many socioeconomic and environmental processes. A wide variety of modelling approaches has been introduced to predict and simulate future urban development. These models are often based on the interpretation of various determining factors that are used to create a probability map. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the performance of different modelling approaches for simulating spatial patterns of urban expansion in Flanders and Brussels in the period 1988-2000. Hereto, a set of urban expansion models with increasing complexity was developed based on: (i) logistic regression equations taking various numbers of determining variables into account, (ii) CA transition rules and (iii) hybrid procedures, combining both approaches. The outcome of each model was validated in order to assess the predictive value of the three modelling approaches and of the different determining variables that were used in the logistic regression models. The results show that a hybrid model structure, integrating (static) determining factors (distance to the main roads, distance to the largest cities, employment potential, slope and zoning status of the land) and (dynamic) neighbourhood interactions produces the most accurate probability map. The study, however, points out that it is not useful to make a statement on the validity of a model based on only one goodness-of-fit measure. When the model results are validated at multiple resolutions, the logistic regression model, which incorporates only two explanatory variables, outperforms both the CA-based model and the hybrid model.
[6]Couch C, Karecha J.Controlling urban sprawl: Some experiences from Liverpool
. Cities, 2006, 23(5): 353-362.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2006.05.003URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264275106000461
[7]Cutsinger J, Galster G.There is no sprawl syndrome: A new typology of metropolitan land use patterns
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https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-3638.27.3.228URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
We investigate the spatial patterns of land use in a representative sample of 50 large U.S. metropolitan areas in 1990, computing 14 indices measuring both job and housing locations. These indices are reduced to seven independent empirical factors via principal component methods. Sampled areas may be categorized in one of four distinctive groups, based on a cluster analysis of their land use patterns: (1) deconcentrated, dense areas: intensively and continuously developed but without major clusters; (2) leapfrog areas: highly concentrated pockets amid generally low density, discontinuous development; (3) compact, core-dominant areas: development with high proximity to the central nucleus, but only moderate density and continuity; (4) dispersed areas: development extending far from the core without notable concentrations or nuclei. Since none of these types manifest uniformly sprawl-like features on all dimensions of land use, we think it inappropriate to consider sprawl as a syndrome measurable by a unidimensional scale. On the contrary, metropolitan areas manifest spatial patterns evincing four distinctive combinations of sprawl-like dimensions. This implies that anti-sprawl policies must be tailored for the particular patterns extant in the area at hand.
[8]冯仕超, 高小红, 亢健, . 西宁市30多年来土地利用/土地覆被变化及城市扩展研究
. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(1): 129-136.
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
In this paper, the land use/cover change in Xining City and urban expansion as well as their driving mechanisms were analyzed using the dynamic degree, transition matrix and urban expansion intensity index based on the data of Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ satellite remote sensing images, topographical maps, population, society and economy. The results show that cultivated land and forestland were dominant in land use types in Xining City during the period from 1977 to 2007, and the annual change rates of forestland and land for constructing urban and rural residential areas were the highest in all land use types. In recent 30 years from 1977 to 2007, the urban expansion of Xining City could be divided into two stages, i.e. the slow expansion stage during the period from 1977 to 2000 and the rapid expansion stage during the period from 2000 to 2007. The eastern, western and northern parts of the city were the main areas of urban expansion. Topographic factors were basic for urban expansion of Xining City, population growth and economic development were the main driving factors of land use/cover change and urban expansion, and policy factors play an important role in the promotion and guidance of land uses/cover change and urban expansion.
[Feng Shichao, Gao Xiaohong, Kang Jian, et al.Research on land use/cover change and urban expansion in Xining city in recent 30 years
. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(1): 129-136.]
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
In this paper, the land use/cover change in Xining City and urban expansion as well as their driving mechanisms were analyzed using the dynamic degree, transition matrix and urban expansion intensity index based on the data of Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ satellite remote sensing images, topographical maps, population, society and economy. The results show that cultivated land and forestland were dominant in land use types in Xining City during the period from 1977 to 2007, and the annual change rates of forestland and land for constructing urban and rural residential areas were the highest in all land use types. In recent 30 years from 1977 to 2007, the urban expansion of Xining City could be divided into two stages, i.e. the slow expansion stage during the period from 1977 to 2000 and the rapid expansion stage during the period from 2000 to 2007. The eastern, western and northern parts of the city were the main areas of urban expansion. Topographic factors were basic for urban expansion of Xining City, population growth and economic development were the main driving factors of land use/cover change and urban expansion, and policy factors play an important role in the promotion and guidance of land uses/cover change and urban expansion.
[9]王振波, 方创琳, 王婧. 1991年以来长三角快速城市化地区生态经济系统协调度评价及其空间演化模式
. 地理学报, 2011, 66(12): 1657-1668.
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201112007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Based on the Landsat TM remote sensed imageries in the periods of 1991, 2001 and 2008 Yangtze Delta Economic Region, and taking 90 counties in this region as basic units, this paper builds spatial data transformation models, i.e., the ESV and the EEH models. Spatial analysis of massive vector and raster data were done within the environment of ArcGIS 9.3. The ESV index and the EEH index reveal the relationship between economic development and eco-environment system of the Yangtze River Delta and its evolution . Furthermore, the function regionalization and the model modification were developed. The results are shown as follows. (1) Since 1991, the conversion of land-use type has been significant, and the city and town land has converted mainly from the paddy field, dry land, grass land, garden plot and other lands. (2) The ESV model shows that the eco-system tends to be degraded in the 9101 period of time, while in the 0801 period, the degradation trends are less significant. At the same time, it proves that the development pattern of the conversion of water body and paddy field to the city, town and dry land deteriorated the eco-system severely. (3) Since 1991, GDP in the central and southern parts is lower than that in the northern, and GDP growth rate in the central part for the 9101 period is higher than that in the northern, while in the 0108 period, it is higher than those in the central and southern parts. (4) According to EEH index, the paper divides Yangtze Delta Economic Region into 12 zones. The spatial characteristics of the EEH are: ecological conflict zone and ecological coordination zone are located in the center and fringe areas respectively, presenting a "core-fringe" structure in the "low to high" order, and in 9101 period eco-economic relationship tends to be concentrated on initial degradation, while in 0108, it converses to dispersed degradation and coordination. (5) Using the model of spatial data transformation, five types of eco-economic evolution are identified, namely, initial degradation zone, initial coordination zone, continuous degradation zone, reduced coordination zone and increased coordination zone. (6) Finally, the paper summarizes the spatial evolution patterns of the Yangtze Delta Region: the coexistence of the gradient mode and the core-fringe mode. The former consists of three horizontal belts in the northern, central and southern parts as the first grade gradient mode and of three N-S belts along the east, middle and west for the second grade gradient mode. The latter consists of seven groups, which are Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou group, Nanjing group, Shaoxing-Ningbo group, northern Jiangsu group, Taizhou group, Hangzhou group and Nantong group. Different modes correspond to different evolution patterns of the eco-economic system, which reflects a spatial differentiation trend of eco-economic relationship at a high level.
[Wang Zhenbo, Fang Chuanglin, Wang Jing.Evaluation on the coordination of ecological and economic systems and associated spatial evolution patters in the rapid urbanized Yangtze delta region since 1991
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(12): 1657-1668.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201112007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Based on the Landsat TM remote sensed imageries in the periods of 1991, 2001 and 2008 Yangtze Delta Economic Region, and taking 90 counties in this region as basic units, this paper builds spatial data transformation models, i.e., the ESV and the EEH models. Spatial analysis of massive vector and raster data were done within the environment of ArcGIS 9.3. The ESV index and the EEH index reveal the relationship between economic development and eco-environment system of the Yangtze River Delta and its evolution . Furthermore, the function regionalization and the model modification were developed. The results are shown as follows. (1) Since 1991, the conversion of land-use type has been significant, and the city and town land has converted mainly from the paddy field, dry land, grass land, garden plot and other lands. (2) The ESV model shows that the eco-system tends to be degraded in the 9101 period of time, while in the 0801 period, the degradation trends are less significant. At the same time, it proves that the development pattern of the conversion of water body and paddy field to the city, town and dry land deteriorated the eco-system severely. (3) Since 1991, GDP in the central and southern parts is lower than that in the northern, and GDP growth rate in the central part for the 9101 period is higher than that in the northern, while in the 0108 period, it is higher than those in the central and southern parts. (4) According to EEH index, the paper divides Yangtze Delta Economic Region into 12 zones. The spatial characteristics of the EEH are: ecological conflict zone and ecological coordination zone are located in the center and fringe areas respectively, presenting a "core-fringe" structure in the "low to high" order, and in 9101 period eco-economic relationship tends to be concentrated on initial degradation, while in 0108, it converses to dispersed degradation and coordination. (5) Using the model of spatial data transformation, five types of eco-economic evolution are identified, namely, initial degradation zone, initial coordination zone, continuous degradation zone, reduced coordination zone and increased coordination zone. (6) Finally, the paper summarizes the spatial evolution patterns of the Yangtze Delta Region: the coexistence of the gradient mode and the core-fringe mode. The former consists of three horizontal belts in the northern, central and southern parts as the first grade gradient mode and of three N-S belts along the east, middle and west for the second grade gradient mode. The latter consists of seven groups, which are Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou group, Nanjing group, Shaoxing-Ningbo group, northern Jiangsu group, Taizhou group, Hangzhou group and Nantong group. Different modes correspond to different evolution patterns of the eco-economic system, which reflects a spatial differentiation trend of eco-economic relationship at a high level.
[10]Zhao Shuping, Da Liangjun, Tang Zhiyao, et al.Ecological consequences of rapid urban expansion: Shanghai, China
. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2006, 4(7): 341-346.
https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-9295(2006)004[0341:ECORUE]2.0.CO;2URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Since China's economic reform in the late 1970s, Shanghai, the country's largest and most modern city, has experienced rapid expansion and urbanization. Here, we explore its land-use and land-cover changes, focusing on the impacts of the urbanization process on air and water quality, local climate, and biodiversity. Over the past 30 years, Shanghai's urban area and green land (eg urban parks, street trees, lawns) have increased dramatically, at the expense of cropland. Concentrations of major air pollutants (eg SO2, NOx, and total suspended particles) were higher in urban areas than in suburban and rural areas. Overall, however, concentrations have decreased (with the exception of NOx), due primarily to a decline in coal consumption by industry and in private households. Increased NOx pollution was mainly attributed to the huge increase in the number of vehicles on the roads. Water quality changes showed a pattern similar to that of air quality, with the most severe pollution occurring in urban areas. Differences in mean air temperatures between urban and rural areas also increased, in line with the rapid pace of urban expansion, indicating an accelerating "urban heat island" effect. Urban expansion also led to a decrease in native plant species. Despite its severe environmental problems, Shanghai has also seen major economic development. Managing the tradeoffs between urbanization and environmental protection will be a major challenge for Chinese policy makers.
[11]岳书评, 张树文, 闫业超. 东北样带土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响
. 地理学报, 2007, 62(8): 879-886.
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2007.08.010URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
根据中国东北样带上不同的土地利用组合类型,分别选取抚松县、磐石市、公主岭市、通辽市及林西县作为典型区,运用GIS和遥感技术分析近30年来不同类型区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响。本文选取基于货币量的价值量评价法,参考Costanza等人的研究成果,结合研究区的实际情况,运用中国陆地生态系统服务单位面积价值的平均值来分析研究区的生态系统服务价值变化情况。研究结果表明,1976-2000年间东北样带土地利用类型变化很大,土地利用程度均呈加大趋势,耕地、林地和草地的ESV均有较大变动,不同类型区单位面积的ESV差别也很大,其基本分布规律为林区农林交错区牧区农牧交错区农区。敏感性分析结果表明,研究区内ESV对生态服务功能价值指数是缺乏弹性的,研究结果是可信的。
[Yue Shuping, Zhang Shuwen, Yan Yechao.Impacts of land use change on ecosystem services value in the Northeast China Transect(NECT)
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007, 62(8): 879-886.]
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2007.08.010URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
根据中国东北样带上不同的土地利用组合类型,分别选取抚松县、磐石市、公主岭市、通辽市及林西县作为典型区,运用GIS和遥感技术分析近30年来不同类型区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响。本文选取基于货币量的价值量评价法,参考Costanza等人的研究成果,结合研究区的实际情况,运用中国陆地生态系统服务单位面积价值的平均值来分析研究区的生态系统服务价值变化情况。研究结果表明,1976-2000年间东北样带土地利用类型变化很大,土地利用程度均呈加大趋势,耕地、林地和草地的ESV均有较大变动,不同类型区单位面积的ESV差别也很大,其基本分布规律为林区农林交错区牧区农牧交错区农区。敏感性分析结果表明,研究区内ESV对生态服务功能价值指数是缺乏弹性的,研究结果是可信的。
[12]李进涛, 刘彦随, 杨园园, . 1985-2015年京津冀地区城市建设用地时空演变及驱动因素研究
. 地理研究, 2018, 37(1): 37-52.
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201801003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
长期以来土地利用/覆被变化一直是全球关注的热点话题,研究城市建设用地时空演变特征,准确定位城市功能是促进城市科学、持续发展的重要保障。以京津冀地区13个城市1985-2015年的城市建设用地为研究对象,运用定量与定性结合的方法,分析城市建设用地时空演变特征;利用多元线性回归、通径分析、地理探测器等方法,诊断城市建设用地时间演化过程与空间演变格局分异的主导驱动因子,通过深入分析各主导因子的驱动机制,对京津冀的城市发展进行功能定位。结果表明:①京津冀地区城市建设用地的扩张规模、速率、方向和稳定性等存在明显的差异,将城市类型分为协调稳定型、协调波动型、不协调稳定型、不协调波动型;②城市建设用地时间演化过程的主导驱动因子包括GDP指数、人口密度指数、财政收入指数,空间演变格局差异的主导因子包括到城市中心距离、到主要河流距离、到主要公路距离;③根据分析结果,将京津冀地区13个城市规划为核心经济引领城市、重点经济拓展城市和稳定经济涵养城市,对促进京津冀地区协调统筹和一体化发展具有参考价值。
[Li Jintao, Liu Yansui, Yang Yuanyuan, et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban construction land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1985-2015
. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(1): 37-52.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201801003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
长期以来土地利用/覆被变化一直是全球关注的热点话题,研究城市建设用地时空演变特征,准确定位城市功能是促进城市科学、持续发展的重要保障。以京津冀地区13个城市1985-2015年的城市建设用地为研究对象,运用定量与定性结合的方法,分析城市建设用地时空演变特征;利用多元线性回归、通径分析、地理探测器等方法,诊断城市建设用地时间演化过程与空间演变格局分异的主导驱动因子,通过深入分析各主导因子的驱动机制,对京津冀的城市发展进行功能定位。结果表明:①京津冀地区城市建设用地的扩张规模、速率、方向和稳定性等存在明显的差异,将城市类型分为协调稳定型、协调波动型、不协调稳定型、不协调波动型;②城市建设用地时间演化过程的主导驱动因子包括GDP指数、人口密度指数、财政收入指数,空间演变格局差异的主导因子包括到城市中心距离、到主要河流距离、到主要公路距离;③根据分析结果,将京津冀地区13个城市规划为核心经济引领城市、重点经济拓展城市和稳定经济涵养城市,对促进京津冀地区协调统筹和一体化发展具有参考价值。
[13]Liu Y, Yue W, Fan P.Spatial determinants of urban land conversion in large Chinese cities: A case of Hangzhou
. Environment and Planning: Part B, 2011, 38(4): 706-725.
[本文引用: 1]
[14]陈江龙, 高金龙, 徐梦月, . 南京大都市区建设用地扩张特征与机理
. 地理研究, 2014, 33(3): 427-438.
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201403003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
作为全球城市化最快的地区之一,中国建设用地的扩张引起了广泛的关注。以长三角北翼中心城市南京为例,利用遥感、土地利用调查等数据研究大都市区建设用地扩张的过程、格局与机理。研究表明,1985-2007年南京市在工业化、城市化和国际化的推动下经济快速增长,引致了建设用地的扩张,年均增长率为3.14%。2001年后随着城市发展模式由单中心向多中心转换,建设用地呈加速扩展趋势。南京市建设用地扩展具有明显的沿长江和南北交通走廊轴向发展的特征。开发区和新城建设是南京市建设用地扩张的主要方式。区、县尺度的回归分析表明,人口增加、全球化是城镇工矿用地扩张的重要推手;经济的服务业化有利于土地集约利用,减少对用地的需求,这种影响在城区更大;在分权化竞争中,都市区政府具有更强的控制力。
[Chen Jianglong, Gao Jinlong, Xu Mengyue, et al.Characteristics and mechanism of construction land expansion in Nanjing metropolitan area
. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(3): 427-438.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201403003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
作为全球城市化最快的地区之一,中国建设用地的扩张引起了广泛的关注。以长三角北翼中心城市南京为例,利用遥感、土地利用调查等数据研究大都市区建设用地扩张的过程、格局与机理。研究表明,1985-2007年南京市在工业化、城市化和国际化的推动下经济快速增长,引致了建设用地的扩张,年均增长率为3.14%。2001年后随着城市发展模式由单中心向多中心转换,建设用地呈加速扩展趋势。南京市建设用地扩展具有明显的沿长江和南北交通走廊轴向发展的特征。开发区和新城建设是南京市建设用地扩张的主要方式。区、县尺度的回归分析表明,人口增加、全球化是城镇工矿用地扩张的重要推手;经济的服务业化有利于土地集约利用,减少对用地的需求,这种影响在城区更大;在分权化竞争中,都市区政府具有更强的控制力。
[15]Li Xinhu, Lin Tao, Zhang Guoqin, et al.Dynamic analysis of urban spatial expansion and its deterinants in Xiamen island
. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21(3): 503-520.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0860-7Magsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
Most of the world’s cities are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of the coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and the physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, located in Southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining an analysis of the literature on urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, with geographical information analysis using historical maps and remote sensing photographs. Firstly, we reviewed the history of the Xiamen City development during the last 100 years, which can be divided into four periods: the embryonic modern city and early development from 1908 to 1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development from 1950 to 1979; special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2003; and Bay City construction since 2003. The dynamic changes to the coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion which occurred during approximately the past 100 years were analyzed and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: early expansion from a central point, followed by expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from the coastline inland. Secondly, we discussed the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revision, industrial development, topographical factors, coastal area reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were concluded. Island urban spatial expansion is the result of a synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors which are not independent but interacting. Built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. By this paper, we hope to provide a scientific reference contributing to the rational understanding of island and coastal sustainable urbanization in China, and the world beyond.
[16]黎夏, 叶嘉安. 基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟
. 地理学报, 2002, 57(2): 159-166.
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2002.02.005URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
提出了一种基于神经网络的单元自动机(CA).CA已被越来越多地应用在城市及其它地理现象的模拟中.CA模拟所碰到的最大问题是如何确定模型的结构和参数.模拟真实的城市涉及到使用许多空间变量和参数.当模型较复杂时,很难确定模型的参数值.本模型的结构较简单,模型的参数能通过对神经网络的训练来自动获取.分析表明,所提出的方法能获得更高的模拟精度,并能大大缩短寻找参数所需要的时间.通过筛选训练数据,本模型还可以进行优化的城市模拟,为城市规划提供参考依据.
[Li Xia, Yeh Anthony Gar-on. Neurai-network-based cellular automata for resllstic and idealized urban simulation
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(2): 159-166.]
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2002.02.005URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
提出了一种基于神经网络的单元自动机(CA).CA已被越来越多地应用在城市及其它地理现象的模拟中.CA模拟所碰到的最大问题是如何确定模型的结构和参数.模拟真实的城市涉及到使用许多空间变量和参数.当模型较复杂时,很难确定模型的参数值.本模型的结构较简单,模型的参数能通过对神经网络的训练来自动获取.分析表明,所提出的方法能获得更高的模拟精度,并能大大缩短寻找参数所需要的时间.通过筛选训练数据,本模型还可以进行优化的城市模拟,为城市规划提供参考依据.
[17]杨青生, 黎夏. 多智能体与元胞自动机结合及城市用地扩张模拟
. 地理科学, 2007, 27(4): 542-548.
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2007.04.015URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
运用多智能体(Agent)和元胞自动机(CA)结合来模拟城市用地扩张的方法,将影响和决定用地类型转变的主体作为Agent引进元胞自动机模型中,Agent在CA确定的城市发展概率的基础上,通过自身及其周围环境的状况,综合各种因素的影响做出决策,决定元胞下一时刻的城市发展概率。运用Agent的决策结果,对CA模型中以随机变量体现的不确定性通过Agent决策行为给予地理意义的新解释。以城市郊区—樟木头镇为例,对1988~1993年城市用地扩张进行了模拟研究,取得了良好的模拟效果。
[Yang Qingsheng, Li Xia.Integration of multi-agent systemsth cellular automata for simulating urban land expansion
. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2007, 27(4): 542-548.]
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2007.04.015URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
运用多智能体(Agent)和元胞自动机(CA)结合来模拟城市用地扩张的方法,将影响和决定用地类型转变的主体作为Agent引进元胞自动机模型中,Agent在CA确定的城市发展概率的基础上,通过自身及其周围环境的状况,综合各种因素的影响做出决策,决定元胞下一时刻的城市发展概率。运用Agent的决策结果,对CA模型中以随机变量体现的不确定性通过Agent决策行为给予地理意义的新解释。以城市郊区—樟木头镇为例,对1988~1993年城市用地扩张进行了模拟研究,取得了良好的模拟效果。
[18]全泉, 田光进, 沙默泉. 基于多智能体与元胞自动机的上海城市扩展动态模拟
. 生态学报, 2011, 31(10): 2875-2887.
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
利用元胞自动机模型和多智能体模型相结合的方法,在GIS技术手段的支持下构建了一个能够兼顾两种模型优点的城市扩展动态模型,并以上海市为实证对象,模拟了上海市2005年的城市扩展动态,分别预测了2010年和2020年上海城市扩展的动态演化结果。在元胞自动机模型中定义城市系统中的各种自然、社会和交通等要素,在智能体模型中定义政府和居民智能体的行为。模型将二者结合起来,模拟上海中心城区、城郊区及外围区的城市用地扩展模式。对模型模拟的上海2005年土地利用状态和实际土地利用状态进行验证,Kappa系数的平均值达到0.75以上,说明模型具有较高的可信度。对预测出2010年和2020年上海市土地利用状态分析表明,城镇用地以向东部和南部扩张最为明显。
[Quan Quan, Tian Guangjin, Sha Moquan.Dynamic simulation of Shanghai urban expansion based on multi-agent system and cellular automata models
. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(10): 2875-2887.]
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
利用元胞自动机模型和多智能体模型相结合的方法,在GIS技术手段的支持下构建了一个能够兼顾两种模型优点的城市扩展动态模型,并以上海市为实证对象,模拟了上海市2005年的城市扩展动态,分别预测了2010年和2020年上海城市扩展的动态演化结果。在元胞自动机模型中定义城市系统中的各种自然、社会和交通等要素,在智能体模型中定义政府和居民智能体的行为。模型将二者结合起来,模拟上海中心城区、城郊区及外围区的城市用地扩展模式。对模型模拟的上海2005年土地利用状态和实际土地利用状态进行验证,Kappa系数的平均值达到0.75以上,说明模型具有较高的可信度。对预测出2010年和2020年上海市土地利用状态分析表明,城镇用地以向东部和南部扩张最为明显。
[19]高玉宏, 张丽娟, 李文亮, . 基于空间模型和CA的城市用地扩展模拟研究
. 地理科学, 2010, 30(5): 723-727.
[本文引用: 1]

[Gao Yuhong, Zhang Lijuan, Li Wenliang, et al.Urban expansion simulation using GIS spatial analysis and cellular automata
. Scientia Geogaphica Sinica, 2010, 30(5): 723-727.]
[本文引用: 1]
[20]吴启焰, 张京祥, 朱喜钢. 现代中国城市居住空间分异机制的理论研究
. 人文地理, 2002, 17(3): 26-30.
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-2398.2002.03.007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
通过住宅市场空间分异研究体系的建立 ,认为城市居住空间分异是社会阶 (层 )级分化结果通过市场宏观控制、个体择居行为心理的局部调整而实现的空间化过程。因此 ,居住空间分异机制可以从对住房市场空间分化及个体择居行为机制两个方面来理解。从五个方面具体分析影响城市住宅市场分化的机构、各种机构对城市居住空间、社会空间分异的影响力 :(1)政府作为土地所有者及其作用形态 ;(2 )城市建筑商、地产开发商的发展方式 ;(3)金融信贷业对社会空间和物质空间的空间非均衡的影响 ;(4 )地产物业机构对邻里的操纵和强化 ;(5 )城市规划思想与方法的影响。并认为影响我国城市社会地理空间分异的宏观背景是 :(1)
[Wu Qiyan, Zhang Jingxiang, Zhu Xigang.The dynamic mechanism of urban residential differentiation in China
. Human Geography, 2002, 17(3): 26-30.]
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-2398.2002.03.007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
通过住宅市场空间分异研究体系的建立 ,认为城市居住空间分异是社会阶 (层 )级分化结果通过市场宏观控制、个体择居行为心理的局部调整而实现的空间化过程。因此 ,居住空间分异机制可以从对住房市场空间分化及个体择居行为机制两个方面来理解。从五个方面具体分析影响城市住宅市场分化的机构、各种机构对城市居住空间、社会空间分异的影响力 :(1)政府作为土地所有者及其作用形态 ;(2 )城市建筑商、地产开发商的发展方式 ;(3)金融信贷业对社会空间和物质空间的空间非均衡的影响 ;(4 )地产物业机构对邻里的操纵和强化 ;(5 )城市规划思想与方法的影响。并认为影响我国城市社会地理空间分异的宏观背景是 :(1)
[21]宋伟轩, 吴启焰, 朱喜钢. 新时期南京居住空间分异研究
. 地理学报, 2010, 65(6): 685-694.
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201006006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
中国快速城市化背景下,利用中国人口普查数据进行城市社会空间结构分析具有明显的“时滞性”缺陷。城市更新与城市扩张过程中,中国城市中大量出现的封闭社区等新生城市空间形式改变着以往的城市社会空间结构,表现出一些新的城市社会空间特征。房地产市场数据能够直接反映住宅供给环境的改变,并可以间接预测出城市居住分异结构及趋势。通过宏观层面对南京1998-2008年期间新建的1075个城市居住社区属性特征的调查研究,结合微观层面对案例社区居民访谈与调查问卷的统计分析,探讨南京居住空间分异过程、特征与演化机制。从南京居住分异的社会空间特征来看,新时期(1998年至今)城市更新背景下的居住分异过程使得城市社会空间出现新圈层结构;封闭社区的大量崛起导致城市社会空间碎片化与公共空间私有化;现代社区组织模式和生活方式转变加剧了社区邻里关系淡漠。通过对南京居住空间分异的研究,揭示出新时期中国城市居住空间分异动力模型的一般范式。
[Song Weixuan, Wu Qiyan, Zhu Xigang.Residential differentiation of Nanjing in the new period
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(6): 685-694.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201006006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
中国快速城市化背景下,利用中国人口普查数据进行城市社会空间结构分析具有明显的“时滞性”缺陷。城市更新与城市扩张过程中,中国城市中大量出现的封闭社区等新生城市空间形式改变着以往的城市社会空间结构,表现出一些新的城市社会空间特征。房地产市场数据能够直接反映住宅供给环境的改变,并可以间接预测出城市居住分异结构及趋势。通过宏观层面对南京1998-2008年期间新建的1075个城市居住社区属性特征的调查研究,结合微观层面对案例社区居民访谈与调查问卷的统计分析,探讨南京居住空间分异过程、特征与演化机制。从南京居住分异的社会空间特征来看,新时期(1998年至今)城市更新背景下的居住分异过程使得城市社会空间出现新圈层结构;封闭社区的大量崛起导致城市社会空间碎片化与公共空间私有化;现代社区组织模式和生活方式转变加剧了社区邻里关系淡漠。通过对南京居住空间分异的研究,揭示出新时期中国城市居住空间分异动力模型的一般范式。
[22]余琪.转型期上海城市居住空间生产模式及布局形态演进
. 城市规划学刊, 2010(5): 15-25.
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2010.05.002URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
通过"空间生产——形态演进" 的研究方法,把转型期上海城市居住空间的生产分成为四种生产模式类型。论文总结了转型期上海城市居住空间总体布局形态演进的三个阶段和六大特征,归纳了4 种不同居住空间生产模式对其演进和特征的影响,并得出结论空间生产模式是影响城市空间形态演进的重要力量。
[Yu Qi.The models of production and evolution of layout of urban residential space in Shanghai during transitional period
. Urban Planning Forum, 2010(5): 15-25.]
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2010.05.002URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
通过"空间生产——形态演进" 的研究方法,把转型期上海城市居住空间的生产分成为四种生产模式类型。论文总结了转型期上海城市居住空间总体布局形态演进的三个阶段和六大特征,归纳了4 种不同居住空间生产模式对其演进和特征的影响,并得出结论空间生产模式是影响城市空间形态演进的重要力量。
[23]刘贤腾, 顾朝林. 解析城市用地空间结构: 基于南京市的实证
. 城市规划学刊, 2008(5): 78-84.
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2008.05.010URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
将南京大都市区划分566个交 通小区及5个圈层、8个扇面,根据土地使用数据计算其居住、工业和商业用地的区位熵值,运用GIS和Surfer软件绘制相应的等值线图和3D图来解析城 市空间结构。结果证实不同用地类型表现为不同空间结构:①居住用地呈圈层式结构;②工业用地具有圈层式及扇形结构两重性;③商业用地则是分等级的多中心结 构。最后,根据这三类用地的空间分布特征提出了相应的概念模型,并将其拼成为一个综合模型。根据综合模型分析认为,在转型期内,土地市场机制在资源配置上 起到了基础性作用,同时也认为政府和市场手段在引导城市空间结构变迁的过程中能够互补。
[Liu Xianteng, Gu Chaolin.Decoding urban land-use spatial structure: A case study on the city of Nanjing
. Urban Planning Forum, 2008(5): 78-84.]
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2008.05.010URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
将南京大都市区划分566个交 通小区及5个圈层、8个扇面,根据土地使用数据计算其居住、工业和商业用地的区位熵值,运用GIS和Surfer软件绘制相应的等值线图和3D图来解析城 市空间结构。结果证实不同用地类型表现为不同空间结构:①居住用地呈圈层式结构;②工业用地具有圈层式及扇形结构两重性;③商业用地则是分等级的多中心结 构。最后,根据这三类用地的空间分布特征提出了相应的概念模型,并将其拼成为一个综合模型。根据综合模型分析认为,在转型期内,土地市场机制在资源配置上 起到了基础性作用,同时也认为政府和市场手段在引导城市空间结构变迁的过程中能够互补。
[24]申庆喜, 李诚固, 周国磊. 基于工业空间视角的长春市1995-2011年城市功能空间耦合特征与机制研究
. 地理科学, 2015, 35(7): 882-889.
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
以长春市1995年、2003年、2011年土地利用现状图和2011年遥感影像为数据源,以Arc GIS为分析工具,在城市功能空间动态变化研究的基础上,分析了长春市工业空间与居住空间、服务空间、交通空间的耦合程度与耦合特征,探讨了工业空间与居住、服务、交通空间的耦合机制。研究发现,长春市功能空间分异日趋明显,工业空间向外快速转移,城市服务空间与居住空间转移严重滞后,形成了大尺度的城市功能分区格局,带来更加严重的城市交通拥挤问题;工业空间与交通空间整体表现为临近布局和协调共进的耦合特征,但"临近性"开始降低,城市用地开发的交通导向并不十分明显。
[Shen Qingxi, Li Chenggu, Zhou Guolei.Coupling characteristics and Mechanism of Urban Functional space of Changchun based on the perspective of Industrial space in 1995-2011
. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(7): 882-889.]
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
以长春市1995年、2003年、2011年土地利用现状图和2011年遥感影像为数据源,以Arc GIS为分析工具,在城市功能空间动态变化研究的基础上,分析了长春市工业空间与居住空间、服务空间、交通空间的耦合程度与耦合特征,探讨了工业空间与居住、服务、交通空间的耦合机制。研究发现,长春市功能空间分异日趋明显,工业空间向外快速转移,城市服务空间与居住空间转移严重滞后,形成了大尺度的城市功能分区格局,带来更加严重的城市交通拥挤问题;工业空间与交通空间整体表现为临近布局和协调共进的耦合特征,但"临近性"开始降低,城市用地开发的交通导向并不十分明显。
[25]申庆喜, 李诚固, 周国磊, . 2002-2012年长春市城市功能空间耦合研究
. 地理研究, 2015, 34(10): 1897-1910.
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201510008URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
One of the important foundations for the study of urban spatial structuring is dissecting the interactive mechanisms among the different functional urban spaces. In this paper, we focus on the following four types of functional urban spaces: residential space, industrial space, service space and ecological space, and we take Changchun city as our primary example. The land status maps and other statistics covering the years 2002, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 provide the main data for this article. With the help of ArcGIS, SPSS and other analysis tools, the study examines the coupling relationship of functional urban spaces. We present two indexes: the Static Coupling Degree (expansion intensity index and coupling coefficient of land use conversion) and Dynamic Coupling Degree (Shannon-Weaver diversity index) — to study the coupling features and driving forces of interaction of functional urban spaces. In this dynamic research process, residential space is the focus of our study. Our research reveals the following: ① During the period from 2002 to 2012, urban spatial expansion in Changchun had still not escaped the ring pattern. Residential space shows excessive expansion, which is incompatible with other functional urban spaces. This gives the near field expansion of urban space a low coupling degree. ② Functional urban space coupling shows significant geographical differences. Both the dynamic and static coupling degrees of the core area are higher than those of the peripheral area, which indicates that the core area has entered a phase of reconstruction involving greater integration of the functional urban spaces. The peripheral area is still experiencing a rapid expansion, with relatively single function like residential districts or manufactory zones. ③ Implementing various coupling degree indexes and using a systematic clustering method and empirical discrimination method, we divide the central city of Changchun into six space types: completely mature functional urban space with a high coupling degree, relatively mature functional urban space with a high coupling degree, new functional urban space with a high coupling degree, relatively stable functional urban space with a low coupling degree, new functional urban space with a low coupling degree and special functional urban space with a low coupling degree. ④ The driving factors of the geographical differences of functional urban space coupling include multiple influences, such as government policy, economic development and population growth, lifestyle changes, the interaction between urban expansion and environmental protection, urban planning guidance and so on. Among these influences, urban planning plays a vital role as the bridge which allows public participation to gradually affect the evolution of functional urban spaces.
[Shen Qingxi, Li Chenggu, Zhou Guolei, et al.The coupling of functional urban spaces: A case study of Changchun from 2002 to 2012
. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(10): 1897-1910.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201510008URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
One of the important foundations for the study of urban spatial structuring is dissecting the interactive mechanisms among the different functional urban spaces. In this paper, we focus on the following four types of functional urban spaces: residential space, industrial space, service space and ecological space, and we take Changchun city as our primary example. The land status maps and other statistics covering the years 2002, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 provide the main data for this article. With the help of ArcGIS, SPSS and other analysis tools, the study examines the coupling relationship of functional urban spaces. We present two indexes: the Static Coupling Degree (expansion intensity index and coupling coefficient of land use conversion) and Dynamic Coupling Degree (Shannon-Weaver diversity index) — to study the coupling features and driving forces of interaction of functional urban spaces. In this dynamic research process, residential space is the focus of our study. Our research reveals the following: ① During the period from 2002 to 2012, urban spatial expansion in Changchun had still not escaped the ring pattern. Residential space shows excessive expansion, which is incompatible with other functional urban spaces. This gives the near field expansion of urban space a low coupling degree. ② Functional urban space coupling shows significant geographical differences. Both the dynamic and static coupling degrees of the core area are higher than those of the peripheral area, which indicates that the core area has entered a phase of reconstruction involving greater integration of the functional urban spaces. The peripheral area is still experiencing a rapid expansion, with relatively single function like residential districts or manufactory zones. ③ Implementing various coupling degree indexes and using a systematic clustering method and empirical discrimination method, we divide the central city of Changchun into six space types: completely mature functional urban space with a high coupling degree, relatively mature functional urban space with a high coupling degree, new functional urban space with a high coupling degree, relatively stable functional urban space with a low coupling degree, new functional urban space with a low coupling degree and special functional urban space with a low coupling degree. ④ The driving factors of the geographical differences of functional urban space coupling include multiple influences, such as government policy, economic development and population growth, lifestyle changes, the interaction between urban expansion and environmental protection, urban planning guidance and so on. Among these influences, urban planning plays a vital role as the bridge which allows public participation to gradually affect the evolution of functional urban spaces.
[26]周国磊, 李诚固, 张婧, . 2003年以来长春市城市功能用地演替
. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 539-550.
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201504003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
The growth of urban space occurs not only through urban land expansion, but also from the transition of urban functional land. The transition of urban functional land can profoundly reveal the internal features of horizontal expansion of urban space, and is the spatial reflection of urban functional agglomeration and diffusion. The paper takes the central city of Changchun as a case study. ArcGIS, AutoCAD and GIS analysis methods are used in the article. Based on remote sensing images, topographic maps and land use maps covering the years of 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012, the study analyzes the external expansion and internal renewal of urban functional land. First, the paper analyzes the overall pattern of urban spatial expansion and the change of urban land structure. Second, the external expansion and internal renewal of urban functional land are used to express the transition of urban functional land. Finally, the paper explains the internal features of urban spatial expansion and urban functional agglomeration and diffusion. The goal of this work is to provide a new and effective way to study urban spatial expansion, enriching the theoretical foundation of urban space studies. The research reveals the following points: (1) Overall, a continuous urban sprawl is still the main mode of urban spatial expansion. (2) The direction of urban spatial expansion of Changchun has phased characteristics. (3) Residential land and industrial land are the major urban functional land types in Changchun. (4) Examining three study periods reveals that external expansion and internal renewal occur in different time intervals. (5) Internal renewal and external expansion of urban functional land are important indicators of urban spatial expansion.
[Zhou Guolei, Li Chenggu, Zhang Jing, et al.Transition of urban functional land in Changchun from 2003 to 2012
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(4): 539-550.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201504003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
The growth of urban space occurs not only through urban land expansion, but also from the transition of urban functional land. The transition of urban functional land can profoundly reveal the internal features of horizontal expansion of urban space, and is the spatial reflection of urban functional agglomeration and diffusion. The paper takes the central city of Changchun as a case study. ArcGIS, AutoCAD and GIS analysis methods are used in the article. Based on remote sensing images, topographic maps and land use maps covering the years of 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012, the study analyzes the external expansion and internal renewal of urban functional land. First, the paper analyzes the overall pattern of urban spatial expansion and the change of urban land structure. Second, the external expansion and internal renewal of urban functional land are used to express the transition of urban functional land. Finally, the paper explains the internal features of urban spatial expansion and urban functional agglomeration and diffusion. The goal of this work is to provide a new and effective way to study urban spatial expansion, enriching the theoretical foundation of urban space studies. The research reveals the following points: (1) Overall, a continuous urban sprawl is still the main mode of urban spatial expansion. (2) The direction of urban spatial expansion of Changchun has phased characteristics. (3) Residential land and industrial land are the major urban functional land types in Changchun. (4) Examining three study periods reveals that external expansion and internal renewal occur in different time intervals. (5) Internal renewal and external expansion of urban functional land are important indicators of urban spatial expansion.
[27]郭付友, 陈才, 刘继生, . 转型期长春市服务空间与城市功能空间关系特征研究
. 地理科学, 2015, 35(3): 299-305.
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
The relation between the service space and urban function space is one of the important study topics in geography. Based on the land utilization data of 1995, 2003, 2008, the remote sensing images of Changchun City in 2011 and related statistical yearbooks, combination of GIS and SPSS statistical tools, this article discussed the relations between service space and urban function space during the transition period of Changchun. The results show that: 1) The gravity center of service plot presented volatile clearly, which was located in the southeast from 1995 to 2003, whereas it was located in the northeast during 2003-2008 and in the southwest during 2008-2011. Its extend mode was given priority to quick push outward, while the internal filling was complementary. 2) The service space presented overall diffusion, local concentration, and the expansion intensity was increasing. Suburbanization had appeared by it. On the basis of the previous research, this article attentively analyzed the diversity change characteristics of service plot and its extension mode in different stages, the conclusions demonstrated that: a. the service land parcel changes others distinctly from 2008 to 2011; b. it extended exteriorly in 1995-2003, and simultaneously expanded externally and filled internally in 2003-2008; c. it had layers of distribution and the gradient of the nature in 2008-2011. 3) The service space and industry space Changchun have no coordination. The industry space expansion of Changchun guided the service space expansion on the outer extension of urban function, while the industry space integrated the service space on the inner inversion of urban function. The service space and living space belonged to mixing state as a whole, but the stripping trend had highlighted. Obviously the single center structure of service space had been shown a delay trend to the traffic space expanding outside. 4) The natural environment, economic development level, government plant policy, urban planning and traffic factors jointly impact on the spatio-temporal different characteristics formation of the service space and urban function space in Changchun City.
[Guo Fuyou, Chen Cai, Liu Jisheng, et al.The relationship between service space and other function space of Changchun City in transition period
. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(3): 299-305.]
URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
The relation between the service space and urban function space is one of the important study topics in geography. Based on the land utilization data of 1995, 2003, 2008, the remote sensing images of Changchun City in 2011 and related statistical yearbooks, combination of GIS and SPSS statistical tools, this article discussed the relations between service space and urban function space during the transition period of Changchun. The results show that: 1) The gravity center of service plot presented volatile clearly, which was located in the southeast from 1995 to 2003, whereas it was located in the northeast during 2003-2008 and in the southwest during 2008-2011. Its extend mode was given priority to quick push outward, while the internal filling was complementary. 2) The service space presented overall diffusion, local concentration, and the expansion intensity was increasing. Suburbanization had appeared by it. On the basis of the previous research, this article attentively analyzed the diversity change characteristics of service plot and its extension mode in different stages, the conclusions demonstrated that: a. the service land parcel changes others distinctly from 2008 to 2011; b. it extended exteriorly in 1995-2003, and simultaneously expanded externally and filled internally in 2003-2008; c. it had layers of distribution and the gradient of the nature in 2008-2011. 3) The service space and industry space Changchun have no coordination. The industry space expansion of Changchun guided the service space expansion on the outer extension of urban function, while the industry space integrated the service space on the inner inversion of urban function. The service space and living space belonged to mixing state as a whole, but the stripping trend had highlighted. Obviously the single center structure of service space had been shown a delay trend to the traffic space expanding outside. 4) The natural environment, economic development level, government plant policy, urban planning and traffic factors jointly impact on the spatio-temporal different characteristics formation of the service space and urban function space in Changchun City.
[28]林木轩, 师迎春, 陈秧分, . 长沙市区建设用地扩张的时空特征
. 地理研究, 2007, 26(2): 265-274.
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2007.02.007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
以不同时段的遥感影像资料为数据源,借助GIS技术对空间数据的统计及分析功能,提取出6个时期长沙市建成区变化的相关数据信息。在此基础上,利用扩张速度、扩张弹性、分维数、玫瑰图等方法分析长沙市区1986~2004年建设用地扩张的时空特征。结果表明,近20年来,长沙城市建设用地扩张了将近1倍,尤其是2002~2004年,建设用地扩张趋势最为明显。现阶段城市的扩张主要表现为低密度填充式的蔓延,城区扩张方向的主要方位是NW270°~295°和SE165°~180°。建设用地扩张的驱动因素除经济发展及人口增长因素之外,政策也是重要的影响因素,尤其是近年来政策因素的作用更为突出。未来长沙城市的空间发展将是多中心组团式的扩张,城市扩张方向日趋合理化。
[Lin Muxuan, Shi Yingchun, Chen Yangfen, et al.A study on spatial temporal features of construction land expansion in Changsha urban area
. Geographical Research, 2007, 26(2): 265-274.]
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2007.02.007URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
以不同时段的遥感影像资料为数据源,借助GIS技术对空间数据的统计及分析功能,提取出6个时期长沙市建成区变化的相关数据信息。在此基础上,利用扩张速度、扩张弹性、分维数、玫瑰图等方法分析长沙市区1986~2004年建设用地扩张的时空特征。结果表明,近20年来,长沙城市建设用地扩张了将近1倍,尤其是2002~2004年,建设用地扩张趋势最为明显。现阶段城市的扩张主要表现为低密度填充式的蔓延,城区扩张方向的主要方位是NW270°~295°和SE165°~180°。建设用地扩张的驱动因素除经济发展及人口增长因素之外,政策也是重要的影响因素,尤其是近年来政策因素的作用更为突出。未来长沙城市的空间发展将是多中心组团式的扩张,城市扩张方向日趋合理化。
[29]周国华, 贺艳华. 长沙市土地扩张特征及影响因素
. 地理学报, 2006, 61(11): 1171-1180.
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.11.006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
This research systematically analyses land-use map of Changsha city in different periods of time. The spatial form and structural evolution was analysed by studying indices such as city land-use structure proportion, expansion intensity, economic flexibility, population flexibility, changing compactness index and so on. The dynamic mechanism of urban land expansion has been discussed by integrating the regional social economy development situation and many aspects such as the physiographical surrounding, population and economic development, traffic infrastructure, planning and regional development tactic and system innovation. The research indicates that the urban land expansion speed and intensity have steadily increased in Changsha from 1949 to 2004. The expansion form has been from a single external expansion to a combination form of external and internal expansion, from a circular or linear continuous form to a blocky or agglomeration shape. Overall, the urban land expansion of Changsha city is a phasic, diversified and complex process. And no matter what the stage is, it is an organic system containing multiple speed, pattern and shape, which are driven by multiple impetuses. The dominant feature at different stages was highlighted be- cause of the balance and fluctuation between different forces, and the existing urban land border and shape have resulted from the joint efforts of these phasic forces.
[Zhou Guohua, He Yanhua.Characteristics and influencing factors of urban land expansion in Changsha
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(11): 1171-1180.]
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.11.006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
This research systematically analyses land-use map of Changsha city in different periods of time. The spatial form and structural evolution was analysed by studying indices such as city land-use structure proportion, expansion intensity, economic flexibility, population flexibility, changing compactness index and so on. The dynamic mechanism of urban land expansion has been discussed by integrating the regional social economy development situation and many aspects such as the physiographical surrounding, population and economic development, traffic infrastructure, planning and regional development tactic and system innovation. The research indicates that the urban land expansion speed and intensity have steadily increased in Changsha from 1949 to 2004. The expansion form has been from a single external expansion to a combination form of external and internal expansion, from a circular or linear continuous form to a blocky or agglomeration shape. Overall, the urban land expansion of Changsha city is a phasic, diversified and complex process. And no matter what the stage is, it is an organic system containing multiple speed, pattern and shape, which are driven by multiple impetuses. The dominant feature at different stages was highlighted be- cause of the balance and fluctuation between different forces, and the existing urban land border and shape have resulted from the joint efforts of these phasic forces.
[30]谭雪兰, 欧阳巧玲, 江喆, . 基于RS/GIS的长沙市城市空间扩展及影响因素. 经济地理, 2017(3): 81-85. [本文引用: 1]

[Tan Xuelan, OuYang Qiaoling, Jiang Zhe, et al. The study of urban spatial expansion and its influent factors based on RS/GIS: A case study in Changsha. Economic Geography, 2017(3): 81-85.] [本文引用: 1]
[31]杨俊宴, 史北祥. 城市中心区圈核结构模式的空间增长过程研究——对南京中心区30年演替的定量分析
. 城市规划, 2012, 36(9): 29-38.
URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
以南京新街口中心区1978年以来的空间发展历程为例,以多年累积的矢量化数据为基础,通过墨菲指数的定量计算得到各个时期中心区的空间范围,并以空间矩阵分析、用地扇区分析和圈层构成分析技术详细剖析中心区的总体增长特征、分形演替特征及圈层演替特征,进一步研.究各阶段用地构成、功能结构、空间形态等的不同特点,总结出城市中心区空间形态演替的圈核结构规律,把特大城市的多核中心区结构划分为主核圈层、阴影圈层、亚核圈层、辅助圈层以及交通输配体系,并以此为基础揭示特大城市中心区圈核结构模式空间增长的基本特征.
[Yang Junyan, Shi Beixiang.Study on spatial growth process of circle-core mode at urban central area: Quantitative analysis on thirty years succession of central area of Nanjing
. City Planning Review, 2012, 36(9): 29-38.]
URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
以南京新街口中心区1978年以来的空间发展历程为例,以多年累积的矢量化数据为基础,通过墨菲指数的定量计算得到各个时期中心区的空间范围,并以空间矩阵分析、用地扇区分析和圈层构成分析技术详细剖析中心区的总体增长特征、分形演替特征及圈层演替特征,进一步研.究各阶段用地构成、功能结构、空间形态等的不同特点,总结出城市中心区空间形态演替的圈核结构规律,把特大城市的多核中心区结构划分为主核圈层、阴影圈层、亚核圈层、辅助圈层以及交通输配体系,并以此为基础揭示特大城市中心区圈核结构模式空间增长的基本特征.
[32]Luck Matthew, Wu Jianguo.A gradient analysis of urban landscape pattern: A case study from the Phoenix metropolitan region, Arizona, USA
. Landscape Ecology, 2012, 17(4): 327-339.
[本文引用: 1]
[33]刘盛和, 吴传钧, 沈洪泉. 基于GIS的北京城市土地利用扩展模式
. 地理学报, 2000, 55(4): 407-416.
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2000.04.003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
采用 GIS空间分析技术 ,对 1 982~ 1 997年期间北京城市土地利用扩展的时空过程进行空间聚类和历史形态分析。证实工业用地的高速外向扩展是北京城市土地利用规模“超常膨胀”的主要原因 ;揭示城市土地利用扩展的空间分异规律 ,阐明城市土地利用扩展中心和扩展轴的时空迁移模式
[Liu Shenghe, Wu Chuanjun, Shen Hongquan.A GIS based model of urban land use growth in Beijing
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55(4): 407-416.]
https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2000.04.003URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
采用 GIS空间分析技术 ,对 1 982~ 1 997年期间北京城市土地利用扩展的时空过程进行空间聚类和历史形态分析。证实工业用地的高速外向扩展是北京城市土地利用规模“超常膨胀”的主要原因 ;揭示城市土地利用扩展的空间分异规律 ,阐明城市土地利用扩展中心和扩展轴的时空迁移模式
[34]Amnon Frenkel, Maya Ashkenazi.The integrated sprawl index: measuring the urban landscape in Israel
. The Annals of Regional Sciences, 2008, 42(1): 99-121.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0137-3URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Urban sprawl in Israel began two decades ago, but has yet to be empirically measured or characterized. Major processes that influenced sprawl in Israel were the rise in standard of living, consumer preference for low-density and single-family housing in the suburbs, and the arrival of nearly one million immigrants from the former USSR during the 1990s. All these processes led to a massive transformation of agricultural land into urban land-uses all over the country and provide some evidence that sprawl is taking place as a pattern of development. This study attempt to measure and analyze urban sprawl in Israel, based on a large sample of urban settlements. Higher sprawl rates were found to correlate significantly with higher population and land-consumption growth rates, which implies a higher consumer preference to reside in more sprawling patterns. Variables that are linked with sprawl in Western countries were usually found to be significant in Israel, as well; however, unlike other Western countries, urban sprawl in Israel is rather spatially dispersed, and not necessarily found on the edges of metropolitan areas.
[35]龙华楼, 李婷婷. 中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合分析
. 地理学报, 2012, 67(2): 201-210.
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201202006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Land use transition refers to the changes in land use morphology of a certain region over a certain period of time driven by socio-economic change and innovation, and it usually corresponds to the transition of socio-economic development phase. In China, farmland and rural housing land are the major sources of land use transition. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of farmland and rural housing land transition in China, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 2000 and 2008, and the data from Reports on China's Land-use Survey and Update during 2000-2008 released by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China. Conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) During 2000-2008, the correlation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change is -0.921, showing that the change pattern of farmland and rural housing land is uncoordinated; 2) The result of Spearman rank correlation analysis of the change rate of rural housing land and the correlation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change shows that rural housing land change has played a major role in the process of farmland and rural housing land transformation from each other; and 3) During 2000-2008, a high-degree coupling is found between farmland and rural housing land change in the southeast China, based on the calculation of the coupling coefficient of China's farmland and rural housing land change at provincial level. In general, farmland and rural housing land transition in China is driven by socio-economic, bio-physical and managerial three-dimensional driving factors through the interactions among rural population, farmland and rural housing land. However, the spatio-temporal coupling phenomenon and mechanism of farmland and rural housing land transition in China are largely due to the 'dual-track' structure of rural-urban development.
[Long Hualou, Li Tingting.Analysis of the coupling of farmland and rural housing land transition in China
. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(2): 201-210.]
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201202006URL [本文引用: 1]摘要
Land use transition refers to the changes in land use morphology of a certain region over a certain period of time driven by socio-economic change and innovation, and it usually corresponds to the transition of socio-economic development phase. In China, farmland and rural housing land are the major sources of land use transition. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of farmland and rural housing land transition in China, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 2000 and 2008, and the data from Reports on China's Land-use Survey and Update during 2000-2008 released by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China. Conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) During 2000-2008, the correlation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change is -0.921, showing that the change pattern of farmland and rural housing land is uncoordinated; 2) The result of Spearman rank correlation analysis of the change rate of rural housing land and the correlation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change shows that rural housing land change has played a major role in the process of farmland and rural housing land transformation from each other; and 3) During 2000-2008, a high-degree coupling is found between farmland and rural housing land change in the southeast China, based on the calculation of the coupling coefficient of China's farmland and rural housing land change at provincial level. In general, farmland and rural housing land transition in China is driven by socio-economic, bio-physical and managerial three-dimensional driving factors through the interactions among rural population, farmland and rural housing land. However, the spatio-temporal coupling phenomenon and mechanism of farmland and rural housing land transition in China are largely due to the 'dual-track' structure of rural-urban development.
[36]高金龙, 陈江龙, 苏曦. 中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理学派综述
. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(5): 743-754.
https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.006URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
作为世界上最大的发展中国家,随着城市扩张问题的日益凸显,中国城市扩张研究也逐渐成为学术界关注的焦点.本文首先对国内外关于中国城市扩张速度与规模、模式与类型,以及城市空间结构演变的研究进行系统归纳;然后,在此基础上分别从经济学派、制度学派和经验学派的角度对中国城市扩张的驱动机理进行总结,并简要评述各学派研究的特点及局限性.笔者认为,中国的城市扩张具有明显的阶段性、区域性及等级性,即处于不同发展阶段不同区域的不同等级的城市表现出不同的扩张态势,其相应的扩张机理也不同.因此,关于中国城市扩张的后续研究应加强现阶段及长时间尺度研究,选取更具普适性案例,采用更加全面数据和综合的方法,注重不同学派视角的综合,对中国城市扩张进行更加全面与科学的研究.
[Gao Jinlong, Chen Jianglong, Su Xi.Urban expansion and its driving mechanism in China: From three main schools’ perspectives
. Progress in Geography, 2013, 32(5): 743-754.]
https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.006URLMagsci [本文引用: 1]摘要
作为世界上最大的发展中国家,随着城市扩张问题的日益凸显,中国城市扩张研究也逐渐成为学术界关注的焦点.本文首先对国内外关于中国城市扩张速度与规模、模式与类型,以及城市空间结构演变的研究进行系统归纳;然后,在此基础上分别从经济学派、制度学派和经验学派的角度对中国城市扩张的驱动机理进行总结,并简要评述各学派研究的特点及局限性.笔者认为,中国的城市扩张具有明显的阶段性、区域性及等级性,即处于不同发展阶段不同区域的不同等级的城市表现出不同的扩张态势,其相应的扩张机理也不同.因此,关于中国城市扩张的后续研究应加强现阶段及长时间尺度研究,选取更具普适性案例,采用更加全面数据和综合的方法,注重不同学派视角的综合,对中国城市扩张进行更加全面与科学的研究.
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