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Version 3.8.1 of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW; Skamarock et al., 2008) was used to simulate the 26?27 January 2017 snowburst event at convection-appropriate resolutions. The model contained only one domain, which included all of Northeast China and the surrounding regions (34°?54°N, 110°?138°E). The model center was located at 45°N, 124°E, and the horizontal grid spacing was 4 km. The number of horizontal grid points was 641×561, and the terrain-following vertical coordinate, sigma, had 51 vertical levels from the surface to 50 hPa, with more vertical levels near the surface and fewer levels aloft (Laprise, 1992). The Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) scheme (Collins et al., 2004, NCAR Tech Note) was employed for longwave and shortwave radiation; in addition, the Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model (PX LSM) (Pleim and Xiu, 1995; Xiu and Pleim, 2001) and the Asymmetrical Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) (Pleim, 2007) were used. The precipitation process in the model was represented by the Morrison double-moment scheme (Morrison et al., 2009). The hourly fifth global climate reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5/ECMWF) with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25°×0.25° and a vertical resolution of 37 levels was used to initialize the model and produce lateral boundary conditions at 3-h intervals. The experiment was initialized at 1200 UTC on 25 January 2017 and integrated for 24 h. History files were generated once an hour.On the basis of the above control simulation with full terrain (denoted as "CTL"), one idealized experiment is further conducted (denoted as "TRNP"). All configurations in the TRNP experiment are the same as the CTL experiment except that all the terrain height greater than 200 m in the Changbai Mountains are set to be 200 m to remove the effects of Changbai Mountains in TRNP (200 m is the mean elevation of the plains in Northeast China). Through this simple sensitivity experiment, one can basically separate the component of snowfall that was attributed solely to the cold-front and thus ascertain to what extent the orography enhanced the snowfall. Additionally, the physical processes associated with the cold front and the orography can be distinguished and roughly separated.
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3.2. Validation of the control simulation
Figure 3 illustrates the simulated output of cumulative liquid-equivalent precipitation for both the CTL and TRNP experiments for comparative purposes. Since little precipitation fell after 1200 UTC on 26 January within Northeast China, only the precipitation from 0000 to 1200 UTC is shown. Figures 3a-c were obtained by interpolating the station observations into a set of 0.1°×0.1° grids. Due to the interpolation, the location of BLJ center in Fig. 3a is a little different from that in Fig. 1. Figures 3a-f can be used to validate the performance of the simulation while Figs. 3d-i can be used to analyze the enhancement of the snowfall due to the complex terrain.Through a comparison of Figs. 3a and 3d, the CTL simulation reproduced the observed snowfall very well, including the detailed banded structure of the precipitation and the three snowfall centers within the snowband. As shown in Fig. 3d, both the Jilin center and the Benxi center were encompassed by narrow small-scale bands (approximately 300 km long and 30 km wide) within the overall snowband; the Jilin center even exhibited a double-banded structure. Notably, the BLJ center was quite evident in the simulation results, as it exhibited a cellular precipitation structure that extended beyond China. The much larger extent of BLJ in the simulation compared to that in the observation was likely due to the sparseness of observation stations in the mountains and the lack of observations outside of China (Fig. 1).
In addition to the spatial distribution of the snowband, its temporal evolution was also effectively simulated, as shown in Figs. 3b-c and Figs. 3e-f. During the observational period, snowfall was most abundant during 0600?1200 UTC; the circumstances were the same in the simulation, although the simulated precipitation in the Benxi center appeared earlier than the observed precipitation. Nevertheless, Fig. 3 still validates the accuracy of the model in simulating the snowband. The solid performance of the model implies that the physical processes associated with the snow band were simulated reliably, especially regarding both the mesoscale and small-scale processes that cannot be resolved by reanalysis data.
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3.3. Enhancement of snowfall by orography
To evaluate the role of orography in producing the snow burst, snowfall amounts and distributions from the CTL and TRNP experiments are compared. From Figs. 3d-f and 3g-i, the snowfall area produced by the cold-frontal snowband does not change much after removing the downstream terrain of the Changbai Mountains. However, the snowfall intensity is significantly influenced. In Fig. 3g, all three snowfall centers in Jilin and Liaoning provinces are greatly reduced, especially the Benxi Center in Liaoning Province. Comparison between Figs. 3e-f and 3h-i indicates that the 0600?1200 UTC snowfall contributes to the difference between Figs. 3d and 3g, a time when the snowband was just becoming active over Changbai Mountains. This indicates that the orography of the Changbai Mountains plays an important role in inducing the snow burst or creating heavy snowfall centers.To quantitatively evaluate to what extent orography effects enhance the snowfall, Table 1 calculates the numbers of grids within the snowband region for different snowfall intensities. The results of Table 1 are consistent with Fig. 3d-i in that the snowfall area greater than 3 mm (12 h)?1 does not appreciably change in the CTL and TRNP experiments. However, when comes to the > 6 mm and > 9 mm snowfall areas, the orographic effects are quite evident. They contribute 49.7% to the 12-h snowfall greater than 6 mm compared to 26.8% of the cold front, and contributes 66.1% to the 12-h snowfall greater than 9 mm compared to 7.4% of the cold front.
0000?1200 UTC snowfall | CTL | TRNP | Orographic effects (CTL?TRNP) |
> 3 mm | 51301 | 48452 | 2849 |
> 6 mm | 13599 | 6845 | 6754 |
> 9 mm | 3382 | 1147 | 2235 |
Table1. Number of grids within the snowband region (36°?46°N, 120°?130°E) for different snowfall intensities
In the following section, we will use the TRNP experiment to analyze the mechanism that supports the snowband development associated with the cold front. Then, by comparing CTL and TRNP experiments, the orographic effects or the interaction between the cold-frontal snowband and orography that intensifies the snowband can be more clearly observed.
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4.1. Overview of the snowband
As radar observations were not available to view the snowband development for this case, the simulated composite radar reflectivities are analyzed instead to observe the development process of the snowband. Figure 4 presents the simulated composite radar reflectivity from both CTL and TRNP experiments during the entire snowfall process superimposed upon the terrain around Northeast China. Two types of snowfall structures are found in both experiments: an arc-shaped cellular snow region along the northeastern border of Heilongjiang Province related to the surface cyclone there (Fig. 2b), and a linear, northeast-southwest-oriented snowband that formed along the front that was later influenced by the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains. The linear snowband, which resulted in considerable snowfall in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces (as shown in Figs. 3d and 3f), is our focus.Figure4. Simulated composite radar reflectivity (colored shading, units: dBZ) and terrain height (gray shading, units: m) on 26 January 2017: (a?h) the CTL experiment; (i?p) the TRNP experiment. The red line in Fig. 4f indicates the line for the following vertical cross sections.
Figures 4a-h clearly display how the snowband was initialized and organized as well as how it developed while moving eastward and climbing over the mountains. The snowband was initiated from a narrow convection line along the foothills of the upstream terrain of the Dahingganling Mountains at approximately 2100 UTC on 25 January. In the first few hours (Figs. 4a-c), these convective lines moved southeastward slowly and produced weak snowfall. This process was observed to be the initial stage of snowband development, when the upstream terrain influenced the band evolution. At 0400 UTC (Fig. 4d), the snowband experienced major development as it approached the Changbai Mountains. Both spatial dimensions, along and normal to the band, grew perceptibly. Since 0400 UTC (Figs. 4d-h), the snowband evidently became organized along the cold front and gradually passed the Changbai Mountains. As shown in Fig. 4f, at 0600 UTC, two double-banded structures existed within the snowband and were distributed in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces respectively; these smaller-scale lines contributed to the large total amount of snowfall during this snow burst.
Compared to CTL, the snowband in TRNP presents a similar development process. Figures 4i-k reflect that the downstream Changbai Mountains do not show evident influence on the initial development of the snowband, which is consistent with the snowfall distributions in Figs. 3e and 3h. After 0400 UTC, it is observed that the effects of the modified terrain to the snowband distribution is small (Figs. 4l-p and Figs. 4d-h). This indicated that orographic effects do not significantly influence the development of the snowband; the mechanism of the initial development mainly comes from the cold-frontal system. However, the area with radar reflectivities greater than 20 dBZ within the snowband is largely reduced when the Changbai Mountains are removed, indicating a constructive role of the complex terrain in enhancing the snowfall intensities (Figs. 4e-f and 4m-n).
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4.2. Snowband dynamic structure
Before addressing the mechanisms that support the development and intensification of the snowband, Fig. 5 first presents the dynamic structures of the band in both the CTL and TRNP experiments at 0600 UTC, which could help us to more clearly understand its development. As in Fig. 4f, the line, which the vertical-sections go through, crosses the Benxi and BLJ snowfall centers.Figure5. Vertical cross-sections of (a, d) the saturated equivalent potential temperature (black solid line, units: K) and simulated radar reflectivity (shaded areas, units: dBZ); (b, e) the total wind speed (shaded areas, units: m s–1); and (c, e) the vertical velocity (shaded areas, units: 10–2 m s–1) along the line shown in Fig. 4f at 0600 UTC on 26 January 2017. The left column comes from CTL experiment, while the right column comes from TRNP experiment. The thick solid lines with 10-dBZ and 20-dBZ radar reflectivities depict the location of the snowband. The symbols “L1”, “L2”, “L3” indicate convective cells. "ULJ" is the upper-level jet. The blue dotted lines indicate the frontal zone. The black curved arrows are the frontal circulation, and the shaded arrows are the ULJ transverse vertical circulation. The red stars indicate locations of ascentassociated with the orographic waves.
In the CTL experiment, as in Figs. 5a-c, an evident transverse vertical circulation associated with the ULJ can be found in the upper levels (shaded arrows). The low-level frontal circulation (thick black curved arrow) was largely influenced by the ULJ transverse circulation. The downward motions (Figs. 5a-b) of the frontal circulation occurred mostly along the saturated equivalent potential temperature surfaces and were confined to the frontal zone (blue dotted lines). The widespread upward motion in the prefrontal areas was combined with the ascending branch of the ULJ (Figs. 5b-c), thus providing a large-scale ascent mechanism for the snowband. In addition to this primary circulation related to the jet-front system, another prevalent flow pattern was present in the form of alternatively distributed rising and sinking motions (Fig. 5c) over the terrain, in the warm sector of the cold front. These motions were generated by the orographic gravity waves when air flows over the mountains. The orographic gravity waves are mixed with the upper-level gravity waves produced by ULJ, forming deep ascending and descending motion over the terrain.
The snowband (CTL experiment), indicated by its high reflectivity values, was located at the leading edge of the front corresponding to a wind shift at low levels. At 0600 UTC, three distinct convective cells can be seen. Each cell, according to its location relative to the front and the topography, had a different dynamic structure. The cell (denoted as “L1”) at the back of the snowband was above the low-level front and featured a slanted ascent embedded within the frontal circulation. Figure 4f shows stratiform precipitation at the back of the snowband corresponding to L1. The cell in the area where the surface front is confronted with topography (denoted as “L2”) includes two different types of ascent: the western part of the cell near the frontier of the cold front displayed a slanted ascent, while the eastern part over the terrain exhibited a nearly-upright ascent (note that the term "upright" here is a relative concept since the vertical velocity increased by a factor of 10). The cell (denoted as “L3”) in front of the snowband was entirely over the terrain with alternatively distributed upward and downward motions.
It is noted that the cells L2 and L3 in Figs. 5a, c, e actually correspond to the smaller-scale convective lines within the snowband in Fig. 4f and they respectively induce the large snowfall of the Benxi and BLJ centers. These cells also appear in the TRNP experiment but with weaker intensities. Upon comparing Figs. 5a, c, e and 5b, d, f the difference of the snowband dynamic structure between CTL and TRNP is mainly attributed to differential vertical velocities. Without the influence of Changbai Mountains, only the frontal circulation is present around the snowband, characterized by slantwise ascent. The alternatively distributed upward and downward motions, due to the orographic gravity waves, are not present in the TRNP snowband.
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4.3. Snowband maintenance and intensification mechanism over terrain
For banded precipitation related to frontal zones, the CSI associated with frontogenesis-based lifting may be the predominant mechanism for explaining the initiation, organization, and development of the band (Bennetts and Hoskins, 1979). The conditions for CSI require the moist potential vorticity (MPV) to be negative when the atmosphere is inertially and conditionally stable (reviewed by Schultz and Schumacher, 1999). In some cases, when the saturation condition is not satisfied, dry SI and inertial instability (II) can also appear, thereby generating a sloped ascent and initiating a banding structure, as in the cases discussed by Schultz and Knox (2007) and Schumacher et al. (2010). The conditions for II require the absolute vorticity to be negative, while the conditions for dry SI require the atmosphere to be both inertially and gravitationally stable and for the potential vorticity (PV) to be negative.In addition, Schultz and Knox (2007) revealed the simultaneous presence of CI, II and SI in real cases, a phenomenon also discussed by Schumacher et al. (2010). Following Emanuel (1980), Jascourt et al. (1988) defined the coexistence of CI and CSI as convective-symmetric instability, although the mesoscale circulation related to this situation remains unclear. Xu (1986) discussed the interaction between CI and SI in a prefrontal environment and proposed two mechanisms for the development of rainbands based on the sequence of CI and SI: "upscaling" and "downscaling". More recently, Morcrette and Browning (2006) proposed a release of SI caused by ΔM-adjustment, which could also lead to slanted circulation and precipitation bands near fronts.
In this subsection, these mechanisms associated with instabilities and corresponding liftings for banded convection are examined for the current snowband. The criteria used to evaluate the instabilities are as follows:
where
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4.3.1. Maintenance mechanism of the snowband
Figure 6 presents horizontal maps of the different types of instabilities and frontogenesis at 0600 UTC in both the CTL and TRNP experiments. The right panel of Fig. 6 comes from TRNP experiment for the purpose of examining the mechanism responsible for the maintenance of the snowband. The TRNP experiment is analyzed first, because the main process in maintaining snowband development can be deduced in the absence of orographic effects. Conversely, the orographic effects that enhance the snowfall can also be ascertained by extracting the maintenance mechanism from the CTL experiment.Figure6. (a, e) CI (green shading) and CSI (yellow shading) areas at a model level of
In Figs. 6a-d, all types of instabilities listed in Eq. (1) appeared within and around the TRNP snowband region (denoted by the 10-dBZ radar reflectivity contour). As shown in Fig. 6a, CI (green shaded areas) was the most widely distributed but only in the near-surface layer, with a small corresponding convective available potential energy (CAPE; not shown). CSI (yellow shaded areas), which is usually considered to be the mechanism responsible for banded convection, also appear, are distributed along the snowband. Dry SI with negative PV and positive absolute vorticity (gray shaded areas) was only present at the near-surface level within and in front of the band (Fig. 6c). Compared to the SI, as shown in Figs. 6c-d, II was quite evident in this case; in the near-surface layer, II was distributed predominantly at the southeast part and in front of the convective region (Fig. 6c), while in the low troposphere, one of the II belts (blue box in Fig. 6d) appeared within the band. All these instabilities revealed by Fig. 6 are possible candidates for the development of the snowband and they are embedded in a weak frontogenetical environment (Fig. 7a) which provides a basic lifting mechanism.
Figure7. Frontogenesis in the near-surface level at
The presence of all the instabilities does not mean that they all play significant roles to support the development of the snowband, although they are all embedded in a frontogenetical environment. Figure 8 and Figs. 9a-b illustrate the vertical structure of the instabilities and associated frontogenesis around the TRNP snowband corresponding to the dynamic structures of the snowband in Figs. 5d-f. In Fig. 8, corresponding to the convective cells L2 and L3, CI, CSI, and dry SI all appear under the 2-km height, with CI (blue box) the most evident. In Fig. 9c, L2 has a frontogenesis region in the near-surface layer to release CI while L3 has an elevated frontogenesis region at about 1?2 km above ground level. The two frontogenesis regions contribute to release CI to support the development of L2 and L3 and thus support the development of the snowband. In the higher levels, the circumstance is simpler because only II (orange box) appear in those levels. Distributed at the base of L1, the elevated II and corresponding frontogenesis (Fig. 9a) contribute to the slanted circulations in L1 which aligns along the cold frontal boundary (Figs. 5d-f).
Figure8. Vertical cross-sections of (a) the negative absolute vorticity (thin solid lines), negative PV (blue shaded areas) and (b) the CI areas with
Figure9. Vertical cross-sections of frontogenesis at (a, c) 0400 UTC and (b, d) 0600 UTC on 26 January 2017. The left column comes from TRNP experiment while the right column comes from CTL experiment. The blue boxes indicate the orographic frontogenesis area before the snowband encounters the downstream terrain. The cross-sections are along the same lines as those in Fig. 8.
The above analysis indicates that the main mechanism that supports the development of the snowband without the influence of terrain, is the release of CI and II in a weak frontogenetical environment. Next, we analyze the processes that enhance the snowband or snowfall in the presence of complex terrain.
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4.3.2. Mechanism of snowband intensification by terrain
By comparing the dynamic structures (Figs. 5c and 5f) and distributions of instabilities (Figs. 8a-b and Figs. 10c-d) around the snowband, three aspects become evident with regard to how orographic effects can intensify the snowfall. The first comes from the instabilities as seen in Figs. 6a-d and 6f-i in which regions of CSI, II and even dry SI are all enlarged especially over Changbai Mountains. The second comes from the frontogenesis as in Figs. 7 and 9, while the third comes from the intensification of lifting due to orographic upslope flow and also orographic gravity waves as indicated in section 4.2.Figure10. Vertical cross-sections (left column) of the negative absolute vorticity (thin solid line), negative PV (blue shaded areas) and (right column) of the CI areas with
Figure 10 shows the vertical distributions of the instabilities from 0500 UTC to 0900 UTC along the same line as that in Fig. 5. In this process, the dissipating L1 disappeared at 0800 UTC, accompanied by the release of an II region at a height of approximately 2 km. This process is similar to the TRNP snowband in Fig. 8.
L2, which produces the large snowfall in Benxi center (Figs. 3d and 4f), first experienced intensification between 0500 UTC and 0600 UTC and then gradually weakened on the windward side of the mountains. Similar to L2 in TRNP experiment, the intensification of L2 was induced mainly by the CI at the low levels, as there was no evidence of either II or CSI appearing within the L2 region (Figs. 10a-d). However, a comparison of Figs. 10d and 8b or Figs. 6a and 6e fails to show intensification of CI in the presence of terrain. Therefore, it is quite likely that the intensification of a lifting mechanism promotes the release of CI and thus makes L2 intensify, inducing the large snowfall in Benxi Center.
The increase of frontogenetical lifting can be seen in Figs. 7a-b and Figs. 9a-d. This process is easily understood since the blocking of terrain to the windward flow increases the flow convergence and deformation which are two basic driving conditions forfrontogenesis. It is noted that before the snowband encounters the downstream terrain, relatively strong orographic frontogenesis already existed on its windward side (Figs. 9c). It is when the cold-frontal snowband approaches this region of orographic frontogenesis that it begins to trigger the release of CI around the cold front to support the development of L2 and L3 (Fig. 9d). Apart from the frontogenetical lifting, the orographic lifting also plays an important role to release CI.
As indicated in section 4.2, the atmosphere over the terrain was characterized by alternatively upward and downward motions, revealing four evident localized regions of ascent (indicated by the four red stars in Fig. 5c) distributed in the upslope, downslope and valley areas of the local terrain. These ascending motions did not exhibit a propagating characteristic and remained in the same place even before the snowband encounters the Changbai Mountains, which can be seen in Fig. 11. When the snowband passed through these areas, the lifting was considerably intensified, such as for L2. This gravity-wave lifting is much stronger than the lifting induced by orographic windward slope or the frontogenesis. Moreover, when the snowband passed through the descending area beneath the ascending area, the lifting was greatly inhibited, which is why L2 began to weaken after 0700 UTC, even though it was still on the windward of the mountains. The decrease of L2 over the windward region implies that the gravity-wave lifting was likely the main dynamic mechanism that influenced the intensification of L2, compared to the frontogenesis and orographic physical lifting.
Figure11. Vertical cross-sections of the vertical velocity (shaded areas, units: 10?1 m s?1) at (a) 0300 UTC and (b) 0400 UTC on 26 January 2017. The cross-sections are along the same lines as those in Figs. 4c and 4h The arrows are vertical circulation along the section The thick solid lines with 10-dBZ and 20-dBZ radar reflectivities depict the location of the snowband.
The development process of L3, which produced larger snowfall in BLJ center over the elevated terrain provides evidence for another mechanism by which the terrain influenced the snowband. As shown in Figs. 10a-b, at 0500 UTC, when L3 was triggered before L2, several small-scale IIs and CSIs were distributed in the area. In the horizontal maps, there is also a thin layer of CI that is not reflected in the vertical structure (Fig. 9a). At 0700 UTC, L3 developed into a mature convective cell, and the unstable areas within it were considerably reduced, implying the release of these instabilities. A notable contrast can be seen from a comparison of Figs. 10a-b and Figs. 10i-j, which delineate the instability areas before and after the snowband passed, respectively. At 0900 UTC, considerable II and CSI were reduced compared to the levels at 0500 UTC in the path of the snowband between 124.2°E and126.4°E.
It is difficult to clarify how these instabilities released because much of the cold frontal circulation, slanted or upright convection of the snowband, and orographic circulation were mixed. However, it can be inferred that the ascending area associated with the cold front and the accompanying frontogenesis played important roles when the band passed over the terrain. Before the snowband and the cold front reached the terrain, orographic frontogenesis (Fig. 9b) and ascent (Fig. 11) had already occurred over the terrain. These processes did not release the instabilities; however, after the snowband and the cold front passed, these instabilities were generally not observed. A possible justification of the above process is from Schumache et al. (2010). They noted that the absolute vorticity and potential vorticity may be altered by the convection which causes a neutralization of negative absolute vorticity and release of inertial instability. This process was quite similar to the scenario described above.
From the above analysis, we can identify two processes that were important to the intensification of the snowband over terrain: the release of CI due to the orographic frontogenesis and gravity-wave lifting and the release of orographic instabilities (including CI, II, and CSI over the terrain) due to the passing of the cold front and snowband over the terrain. The two processes associated with the interaction of a cold-frontal snowband and complex terrain contributed to the snow burst in Benxi and BLJ regions. Finally, it is noted that the above analyses are basically from the vertical sections along the Benxi and BLJ centers in Liaoning provinces. In fact, another set of cross sections are also analyzed and most of the main processes that are associated with the snowband maintenance and intensification over terrain are similar.