宋百媛^1,2,3,4, 侯西勇^1,3,4, 王晓利^1,3,4, 刘玉斌^1,2,3,4
1.中国科学院 烟台海岸带研究所, 山东 烟台 264003;2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3.中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室, 山东 烟台 264003;4.山东省海岸带环境过程重点实验室, 中国科学院 烟台海岸带研究所, 山东 烟台 264003

摘要:
海岸带土地利用长时间序列多情景模拟，对海岸带综合管理和可持续发展有重要指导意义。以山东海岸带为例，构建山东海岸带土地利用需求系统动力学（SD）模型，设置SSP1-RCP2.6（A-可持续发展路径）、SSP2-RCP4.5（B-经济社会适中发展路径）、SSP3-RCP4.5（C-逆全球化的区域竞争路径）三种情景，模拟至2100年土地利用需求，进而使用FLUS模型模拟近期（2030年）、中期（2050年）和远期（2100年）的土地利用空间分布。结果表明：（1）情景A人口较少、城镇化率高、经济发展水平较高，情景B各因素发展趋势适中，情景C人口数量较多、城镇化率较低、经济发展水平较低。（2）至2100年各地类的需求面积变化曲线表现出显著的情景差异及类型差异；情景A经济社会发展对土地资源的依赖性较小；情景B对主要地类的面积需求在三种情景中处于中等水平；情景C经济社会发展对生活、生产用地需求突出，建设用地面积增长趋势强劲。（3）至2100年三种情景土地利用的格局—过程差异显著，情景A主要地类趋向于集中分布，建设用地在近、中期将延续扩张趋势，但滨海湿地能够得到有效的保护；情景B海岸带区域建设用地和人工湿地的扩张及林草地的萎缩趋势均较显著；情景C建设用地扩张最显著，人工湿地与耕地有向海扩张的趋势，滨海湿地显著萎缩。研究结果可为海岸带管理长远的战略决策制定提供科学支持。
关键词:土地利用情景分析系统动力学海岸带
DOI：10.11759/hykx20201118002
分类号:P748
基金项目:中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA19060205）、国家自然科学基金项目（41901133）、山东省海岸带环境过程重点实验室开放基金项目（2019SDHADKFJJ04）

Multi-scenario simulation of land use change in coastal zones—A case study of Shandong coastal zone
SONG Bai-yuan^1,2,3,4, HOU Xi-yong^1,3,4, WANG Xiao-li^1,3,4, LIU Yu-bin^1,2,3,4
1.Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China;4.Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China
Abstract:
Long-term series scenario to simulate coastal land use have important guiding significance for integrated coastal management and sustainable development. Based on three scenarios, namely, SSP1-RCP2.6 (A-Sustainability Path), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B-Middle of the Economic and Social Development Path), and SSP3-RCP4.5 (C-Inverse Globalization of Regional Rivalry Path, a system dynamics (SD) model of land use demand in the coastal zone of Shandong province to 2100 was established. The FLUS model is then used to simulate the recent (2030), medium (2050), and long-term (2100) land use spatial distribution. Results show the following:(1) scenario A has a small population, a high level of urbanization, and a high level of economic development. Meanwhile, scenario B has a moderate development trend of various factors, and scenario C has a large population, a low level of urbanization, and a low level of economic development. (2) By 2100, the demand area change curves of different regions show significant situational differences and type differences. Scenario A is less dependent on land resources for economic and social development. The area demand of the main ground class in scenario B is at a medium level in three scenarios. In scenario C, economic and social development has a prominent demand for land for living and production, and the area of the construction land has a strong growth trend. (3) By 2100, there are significant differences in land use patterns and processes among the three scenarios. Scenario A tends to have a centralized distribution. The construction land will continue to expand in the near- and medium-term, but coastal wetlands can be effectively protected. For scenario B, the expansion of the construction land, the constructed wetland, and the shrinking trend of forest and grassland in the coastal zone are significant. Scenario C has the most significant expansion of the construction land. The constructed wetland and cultivated land tend to expand to the sea, while the coastal wetland shrinks significantly. Research results can provide scientific support for coastal zone management to make long-term strategic decisions.
Key words:land usescenario analysissystem dynamiccoastal zone





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