隋芯^1,2, 汪金涛^1,3,4,5,6, 陈新军^1,3,4,5,6
1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;2.中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所渔业资源遥感信息技术重点实验室, 上海 200090;3.农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室, 上海 201306;4.国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306;5.大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室, 上海 201306;6.农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站, 上海 201306

摘要:
东海马鲛鱼（Scomberomorus Niphonius）的种群动态易受海洋环境条件的影响，在其资源评估和管理中需要考虑海洋环境条件的作用。假设马鲛鱼产卵场最适海表温度10~19℃（Suitable SST，T_sui）范围会影响种群环境容纳量（K），因此分别使用产卵季3月最适表温范围比值（T_sui-Mar）、4月最适表温范围比值（T_sui-Apr）和3、4月份最适表温范围比值的平均值（T_sui-Ave）作为剩余产量模型的环境因子，构建三种基于环境因子的剩余产量模型（environmentally dependent surplus production，EDSP），分别为T_sui-Mar-EDSP、T_sui-Apr-EDSP和T_sui-Ave-EDSP，利用贝叶斯估计模型参数，结果显示T_sui-Mar、T_sui-Apr、T_sui-Ave三个基于环境因子的EDSP模型偏差信息标准（deviance information criterion，DIC）值小于传统的剩余产量模型的DIC值，其中T_sui-Ave-EDSP模型DIC值最小，精度最高，估计的最大可持续产量（maximum sustainable yield，MSY）的范围为8.125×10⁶~8.371×10⁶t，资源量（biomass）范围是1.429×10⁶~1.455×10⁶t，从1994年到2015年，马鲛鱼的捕捞死亡率远低于目标死亡率（F_tar）和MSY水平捕捞死亡率（F_MSY），种群资源量高于MSY水平资源量（B_MSY）。东海马鲛鱼没有被过度捕捞或未发生过度捕捞，基于EDSP模型中的管理参考点更为保守，建议日后东海马鲛鱼的种群评估和管理应考虑产卵场环境条件。
关键词:马鲛鱼剩余产量模型产卵场环境因子东海
DOI：10.11759/hykx20200722003
分类号:S932
基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2019YFD0901404）；国家自然科学基金（41876141）

Resource assessment of Scomberomorus Niphonius dependent environmental factors in East China Sea
SUI Xin^1,2, WANG Jin-tao^1,3,4,5,6, CHEN Xin-jun^1,3,4,5,6
1.College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;2.East China Sea Fishery Research Institute, CAFS, Shanghai 200090, China;3.Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China;4.National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;5.Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;6.Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China
Abstract:
Marine environmental variable is among the important factors that affect fishery resources and fishing ground for pelagic fishes. Stock dynamics of mackerel are greatly affected by environmental conditions. Therefore, environmental factors should be considered in the assessment and management of mackerel resources. We assumed that the temporal variability of spawning ground with favorable sea surface temperature of 10~19℃ (T_sui) affects the carrying capacity (K). In order to accurately study the key month affecting the spawning of mackerel, this study established an EDSP model using the appropriate spawning field temperature ratio of environmental factors in March (T_sui-Mar), April (T_sui-Apr), and their average (T_sui-Ave), respectively. In this study, three types of environmentally dependent surplus production (EDSP) model were used to evaluate the population dynamics of S. niphonius:T_sui-Mar-EDSP, T_sui-Apr-EDSP, and T_sui-Ave-EDSP. Using Bayesian to estimate the model parameters, the results revealed that deviation information criterion (DIC) values of EDSP models is dependent on the environmental factors, such that T_sui-Mar, T_sui-Apr, and T_sui-Ave were smaller than DIC values of the original surplus production model (SP). According to DIC values, the estimated T_sui-Ave-EDSP model was better than the SP and other two EDSP models, which has the highest accuracy. In T_sui-Ave-EDSP, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) varied from 8.125×10⁵ to 8.371×10⁵ t and biomass at MSY level varied from 1.429×10⁶ to 1.455×10⁶ t. The fishing mortality rates of S. niphonius from 1994 to 2015 were much lower when compared to the target and MSY fishing mortality (F_tar and F_MSY) and the stock biomass was higher than B_MSY, thus suggesting that the mackerel was not overfished or undergoing overfishing. The management reference points in the EDSP model for S. niphonius were more conservative when compared to those in the conventional model. It is recommended that the future assessment and management of mackerel in East China Sea should consider the spawning environmental conditions.
Key words:Scomberomorus niphoniussurplus production modelenvironmental factorsEast China Sea





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