宋百媛^1,2,3, 侯西勇^1,3, 刘玉斌^1,2,3
1.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所, 山东 烟台 264003;2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3.中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室, 山东 烟台 264003

摘要:
针对自然因素和人文因素耦合影响显著并发生显著变化的黄河三角洲-莱州湾海岸带区域，基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年土地利用数据，分析土地利用的变化特征，并对2025年土地利用进行多情景分析与模拟。结果表明：（1）黄河三角洲-莱州湾海岸带土地利用类型以耕地为主，湿地类型多样、分布广泛，由海向陆大体呈现"浅海水域→滨海湿地→人工湿地→陆域多类型混合区域"的格局特征；（2）2000-2015年间建设用地和人工湿地显著增加，而其他类型则显著减少，但区域层面土地利用变化速度和强度逐渐降低的趋势和特征显著；（3）土地利用类型间的转移呈现由自然型和生态型地类向人工型地类转变以及土地利用程度逐渐增高的趋势；（4）至2025年土地利用多情景分析结果显示，趋势延续（Business as Usual，BAU）情景中自然型地类向人工型地类的转变仍较剧烈，但显著低于经济社会发展（Social and Economic Development，SED）情景，生态保护优先（Ecological Protection Priority，EPP）情景通过充分挖掘未利用地的资源优势，较好地促进了发展与保护之间的平衡；（5）建议加强天然湿地保护，重视未利用地资源的高效利用，促进海岸带生态保护和经济社会发展。
关键词:土地利用变化|情景分析|黄河三角洲|莱州湾|海岸带
DOI：10.11759/hykx20181007002
分类号:P748
基金项目:中国科学院科技服务网络计划（STS）项目（KFJ-STS-ZDTP-023）；中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所自主部署项目（YICY755011031，YICY755021012）；国家自然科学基金项目（31461143032）

Land-use change characteristics and scenario analysis in the Yellow River Delta and Laizhou Bay coastal zone
SONG Bai-yuan^1,2,3, HOU Xi-yong^1,3, LIU Yu-bin^1,2,3
1.Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China
Abstract:
This study analyzed the quantitative changes and interconversion of land use based on the land-use data of 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 in the Yellow River Delta and Laizhou Bay coastal zone, followed by scenario analysis and simulation of land use in the year 2025. Results showed that (1) Farmland is the primary land-use type in the Yellow River Delta and Laizhou Bay coastal zone; meanwhile, diverse wetland is widely distributed. Land use showed the following transitional characteristics from the sea to the land:shallow water → coastal wetland → manmade wetland → multiple land-mosaicked area. (2) During 2000-2015, the built-up area and manmade wetland expanded abruptly, whereas there was a significant decrease in other types of land use. However, considering the entire region, the speed and intensity of land-use change have been weakened overall. (3) The interconversion of land use was highlighted by transitions from natural or ecological types to artificial types of land use, which significantly increased the regional land-use intensity. (4) According to scenario analysis results, by 2025, a large amount of natural or ecological land will still be utilized and converted into artificial types of land use as determined in the Business as Usual (BAU) and Social and Economic Development (SED) scenarios, whereas the Ecological Protection Priority (EPP) scenario showed that the relation between ecological conservation and economic development will be balanced effectively mainly via completely tapping the values and advantages of unused land. (5) We suggested to attach importance the principle of land-sea coordination, efficient utilization of unused land, and conservation of wetland to promote coastal ecological protection and economic development simultaneously.
Key words:land-use changescenario analysisYellow River DeltaLaizhou Baycoastal zone





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