胡荧斌, 徐美佳, 王天姿, 何毓钦, 王迎宾
浙江海洋大学水产学院, 浙江 舟山 316022

摘要:
依据2000年-2015年浙江省三疣梭子蟹（Portunus trituberculatus）渔获量的数据，以及影响渔获量的因素（管理类因素、环境类因素和营养关系类因素等共11个因子），使用广义加性模型（GAM）对各类因素对三疣梭子蟹渔获量的影响进行了分析。结果显示，赤潮面积、捕捞努力量和放流数量对三疣梭子蟹渔获量影响显著（P<0.01）。3个因子的累积解释比率达98.3%，其中，赤潮的解释比率最大，达到47.2%，捕捞努力量的解释比率为37.8%，放流数量的解释比率为13.3%。三疣梭子蟹渔获量随着赤潮面积增加有所减少，随着捕捞努力量的加大有迅速增加的趋势，与放流尾数呈现正相关趋势。三疣梭子蟹渔获量的波动受诸多因素的影响。今后需开展更深入的研究，找到可能影响三疣梭子蟹渔获量的其他关键因素。
关键词:三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)渔获量浙江广义加性模型(GAM)影响因子
DOI：10.11759/hykx20181007001
分类号:S931.1
基金项目:国家重点研究发展计划（2017YFA0604902）；舟山市科技局项目（2017C41012）；国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目

Analyses of yield fluctuation of Portunus trituberculatus and potential influencing factors in Zhejiang province
HU Ying-bin, XU Mei-jia, WANG Tian-zi, HE YU-qin, WANG Ying-bin
College of Fisheries, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Abstract:
In this study, the effects of various factors on the catch of Portunus trituberculatus were analyzed using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on the catch data and some factors influencing catch data (11 factors, including management factor, environmental factor, and nutritional relationship factor) from 2000 to 2015. The results demonstrated that the red-tide area, fishing effort, and quantity of releasing can significantly affect the catch of P. trituberculatus (P< 0.01). The cumulative interpretation rate of the three factors reached 98.3%, wherein the interpretation ratios were 47.2%, 37.8%, and 13.3% for the red tide, fishing effort, and quantity of releasing, respectively. The catch of P. trituberculatus gradually decreased with an increase in the size of red-tide area and significantly increased with an increase in the fishing effort. Further, the catch showed a positive correlation with the quantity of releasing. Fluctuations in the catch of P. trituberculatus are influenced by several factors. Further in-depth research is required to identify other important factors that may influence the catch of P. trituberculatus.
Key words:Portunus trituberculatuscatchZhejiang provincegeneralized additive model (GAM)impact factor





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