王元战, 戈浩波, 吴林键
天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 高新船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心, 天津 300072

摘要:
考虑软土蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度的衰减效应，建立了软土长期强度模型，用以量化由于土体蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度参数随时间的变化规律。将时变可靠度理论结合有限元强度折减法，提出了考虑软土蠕变对强度影响的高桩码头岸坡时变可靠度算法。采用拉丁超立方抽样方法来改进传统蒙特卡罗法的随机抽样过程，提高计算效率。针对某一岸坡实例，将采用本文算法计算得到的可靠度结果与其他算法评估的结果进行对比分析，验证本文算法的可靠性。最后以我国沿海某高桩码头岸坡为例，基于本文算法评估了该码头岸坡的时变可靠度，分析了岸坡稳定性的时变规律。文中提出的时变可靠度分析方法不仅可以为在役高桩码头岸坡的安全评估提供强有力的技术支撑，同时也能为一些新建工程项目提供一定的参考应用价值。
关键词:码头岸坡时变可靠度长期强度拉丁超立方抽样有限元
DOI：10.11759/hykx20171218001
分类号:U657
基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0802204，2016YFC0802201）；国家自然科学基金（51679166）；国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金（51321065）

Time-variant reliability analysis of bank slope of open type wharf on piles considering the effect of soft soil creep on strength
WANG Yuan-zhan, GE Hao-bo, WU Lin-jian
National Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy Engineering Simulation and Security, Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 China
Abstract:
The decay effect of soil shear strength caused by creep of soft soil is considered, and a long-term strength model of soft soil is established to quantify the variation of shear strength parameters of soil due to soil creep with time. Combining the theory of time-variant reliability with the strength reduction method of finite element method, a time- variant reliability method is proposed to consider the effect of soft soil creep on strength. The Latin hypercube sampling method is used to improve the random sampling process of traditional Monte Carlo Method and improve calculation efficiency. For a bank slope example, the reliability based on the proposed algorithm is compared with the results of other algorithms to verify the reliability of the proposed algorithm. Finally, taking the slope of open type wharf on piles in the coastal area of China as an example, the time-variant reliability of the wharf slope is evaluated based on this algorithm, and the time- variant regularity of the slope stability is analyzed. The time-varying reliability analysis method proposed in this paper can not only provide a strong technical support for the safety assessment of the bank slope in the existing high pile wharf, but also provide some reference value for some new projects.
Key words:slope of open type wharf on pilestime-variant reliabilitylong-term strengthLatin hypercube samplingfinite element





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