区域运输通道交通方式选择3层模型

刘强, 陆化普, 王庆云



作者单位

刘强  

陆化普  

王庆云  



摘要:

为实现区域运输通道内交通方式的合理配置,建立基于用户最优的通道内交通方式选择3层Nested Logit模型.模型采用分层的建模思想,运用不确定规划理论和随机效用理论,从概率的角度研究了通道内交通方式的选择问题.以京沪通道客运方式选择为例,并以京沪磁浮客流预测调查数据为基础,同时辅以一定量的交通调查,进行数据校合和模型参数的标定,验证了模型的合理性.该模型可克服多项Logit模型的ⅡA缺陷,对解决区域通道内各种运输方式的结构配置问题具有较好的辅助决策支持.

关键词:  运输通道  交通方式选择  Nested Logit模型  结构配置

DOI：10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.2011.08.022

分类号:U491

基金项目:国家发展改革委交通运输司资助项目(200501-200602)



Tri-level model of traffic mode choice in regional transportation corridors

LIU Qiang, LU Hua-pu, WANG Qing-yun

Abstract:

A tri-level Nested Logit choice model was developed to optimize regional transportation corridors al-location.From the perspective of users and by applying hierarchical ideas,uncertain programming theory and random utility theory,the traffic mode choice in corridors was discussed.Taking Beijing-Shanghai transporta-tion corridor for instance,the model parameters were calibrated by using the Beijing-Shanghai maglev transit passenger forecast survey and other supplementary traffic survey data,and the rationality of the model was vali-dated.Results show that the model could overcome the defects of Multinomial Logit Model and be a promising approach to improve the structure configuration of transportation modes in regional transportation corridors.

Key words:  transportation corridor  transportation mode split  nested Logit model  structure configuration