河冰抗压强度概率特征值的自助法估计

周道成¹, 段忠东¹, 姚迪¹, 黄美兰², 汪振凯²

1.哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院;2.黑龙江省公路堪察设计院



摘要:

为了解决在小样本条件下河冰抗压强度概率特征值不稳定性及其概率模型确定难的问题.将增广样本统计方法——自助法应用于河冰抗压强度概率特征值的计算,解决了小样本情况下其概率特征值的不稳定性问题,从而确定其概率分布.试验数据表明:基于自助法计算得到了河冰抗压强度概率特征值优于常规方法和刀切法计算的结果.自助法能改善小样本条件下其概率特征值的稳定性.

关键词:  河冰  抗压强度  概率特征值  自助法

DOI：10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.2010.04.008

分类号:TU311

基金项目:



Bootstrap-based estimation for probabilistic characteristic value of river ice compression strength

ZHOU Dao-cheng¹, DUAN Zhong-dong¹, YAO Di¹, HUANG Mei-lan², WANG Zhen-kai²

1.School of Civil Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;2.Highway Reconnaissance and Design Institute of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin 150080,China

Abstract:

Aimed at the problems that the probabilistic characteristic value of the river ice compression strength of small sample is unstable and it is difficult to obtain its distribution,the Bootstrap is applied to the determination of the characteristic value of river ice compression strength,then the stable characteristic value of the compression strength of small sample is obtained and its distribution is determined.The experimental data indicate that the probabilistic characteristic value calculated by Bootstrap is better than the results obtained by classical calculating method and Jackknife method,so Bootstrap can improve the stability of probabilistic characteristic value of the river ice compression strength of small sample.

Key words:  river ice  compression strength  probabilistic characteristic value  bootstrap