摘要:温室效应的加剧已经严重影响到人类社会的生存与发展，根据IPCC数据显示，农业温室气体占全球人为排放的13.5%，鉴于山东省农业在我国的重要地位，本文以在农业产值中占比最高的种植业为样本，对山东省低碳绩效展开研究，为山东省种植业低碳发展之路提供参考。本文在测算山东省种植业碳排放量、碳汇量、碳排放强度以及碳排放边际减排成本的基础上，运用DEA-Malmquist模型测算了种植业低碳绩效水平，接着研究了低碳驱动与约束对山东省种植业低碳绩效的动态影响效应。通过研究发现，2000年到2018年山东省种植业碳排放总量和碳汇总量年均增幅分别为0.26%和1.74%，而碳排放强度和减排成本年均降低6.12%和2.10%。低碳绩效指数增长较慢，年均增长速度为3.00%，其主要驱动来源于技术进步。低碳约束目标与低碳驱动手段是种植业低碳绩效变动的直接原因，种植业碳排放强度对种植业低碳绩效具有一定的抑制作用，低碳驱动手段对种植业低碳绩效具有正向促进作用，且低碳驱动手段对种植业的低碳绩效贡献更大。进而提出了制定种植业低碳法律法规与提升财政支持有效性的低碳发展建议。
关键词:减排成本/
低碳绩效/
驱动与约束/
山东/
种植业
Abstract:Increased greenhouse effects have seriously affected the survival and development of human society. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that agricultural greenhouse gases account for 13.5% of global anthropogenic emissions. This study investigated the planting industry in Shandong Province, China, which accounts for the highest proportion of agricultural output, to provide policy recommendations that should help the planting industry in the province follow a low-carbon development path. This study measured carbon emission, carbon sinks, carbon emission intensity, and the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction; used the DEA Malmquist model to measure the low-carbon performance level; and investigated the dynamic effects of low-carbon driving and constraint on the low-carbon performance of the planting industry in Shandong Province. The results showed that from 2000 to 2018, the carbon emission and carbon sink of planting industry in Shandong Province increased 0.26% and 1.71% averagely every year, while carbon emission intensity and marginal cost of carbon emission reduction decreased 3.12% and 2.10%, respectively. The low-carbon performance index increased slowly with an annual increasing rate of 3.00%, which mainly was driven by the efficiency of technology change. The low-carbon constraint goals and low-carbon drivers were the direct reasons of low-carbon performance change of the planting industry. The carbon emission intensity and low-carbon constraint goals had negative and passive effects on the low-carbon performance of plant industry, respectively. The low-carbon constraint goals played a more important role in the low-carbon performance of plant industry of Shandong Province. The findings of this study suggest that low-carbon development can be achieved by formulating low-carbon laws and regulations and improving the effectiveness of financial support.
Key words:Cost of emission reduction/
Low-carbon performance/
Drive and constraint/
Shandong Province/
Planting industry
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