摘要
摘要:马铃薯作为北方农牧交错带的主栽作物，随着气候向暖干化发展，其产量的稳定对保证该地区粮食安全有重要意义。为探究播期和品种耦合对农牧交错带马铃薯产量的影响，基于分期播种和品种比较试验的生育期和产量数据对APSIM-Potato模型进行调参和验证，利用验证后的模型设置连续模拟情景，比较不同耦合方式的产量及保证率，分析农牧交错带雨养马铃薯的最佳播期和品种耦合方式。结果表明：APSIM-Potato模型可以较好地模拟不同熟性马铃薯品种的生育期和产量，不同品种生育期实测值和模拟值的均方根误差（RMSE）均小于6.3 d，不同品种产量实测值和模拟值的归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）均小于7.6%。雨养条件下，农牧交错带不同播期和品种耦合下马铃薯的多年平均鲜重产量为10 494 kg·hm^-2；中熟品种‘克新一号’晚播（6月1日播种）的平均产量最高，为12 153 kg·hm^-2，且可以保证在66.7%的年份产量高于不同耦合方式的平均值，较早播（4月26日播种）和中播（5月15日播种）的平均鲜重产量分别高16.3%和7.0%，较同一时期播种的早熟品种‘费乌瑞它’和晚熟品种‘底西芮’分别高18.7%和17.2%。本研究揭示了农牧交错带马铃薯播期、品种和环境存在显著的交互作用，播期推迟和选种中熟马铃薯品种是应对气候暖干化的重要方式，为该地区马铃薯适应气候变化和保证稳产高产提供了科学依据。
Abstract:Potato is one of the major food crops in agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) in North China, with a total yield accounting for 46.8% of total grain yield in the region. Therefore, yield stability of potato is of significance for food security in the region. Due to the shortage of surface water and groundwater resources, potato is mostly produced under rainfed condition in the APE. Thus, there is large variation in rainfed potato yield due to high variability of annual and season precipitation. Adjustment in planting date and selection of cultivars were both effective ways of adapting to climate change, but there were few studies on the exploration of the impacts of coupling planting date and cultivar type on potato yield under rainfed condition in the APE. In this study, the APSIM-Potato model were calibrated and validated by serial planting date and cultivar experiments of potato in 1981-2010 to analyze the optimal combinations of planting date and cultivar by focusing on yield and guaranteeing rate of yield of rainfed potato. The results showed that APSIM-Potato model performed well in simulating phenology and fresh yield under different planting dates and cultivars of potato. The range of root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and simulated phenology was 0-6.3 days for the calibration years and 2.1-4.2 days for the validation years under different combinations of planting date and cultivar type. The range of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between the observed and simulated yields under different combinations of planting date and cultivar type was 0.3%-3.9% for the calibration years and 0.9%-7.6% for the validation years. Under rainfed condition, the range of simulated fresh yield of potato under different combinations of planting date and cultivar was 0-28 914 kg·hm^-2 for the period 1981-2010, with an average of 10 494 kg·hm^-2. Planting mid-maturing cultivar 'Kexin_1' in late planting date (1^st June) produced fresh yield of 12 153 kg·hm^-2, which was respectively 16.3% and 7.0% higher than that under early planting season (26^th April) and the middle planting (15^th May) in the APE during 1981-2010. Moreover, the simulated fresh potato yield of 'Kexin_1' under late planting date was respectively 18.7% and 17.2% higher than that of early-maturing cultivar 'Favorita' and late-maturing cultivar 'Desiree'. Planting mid-maturing cultivar at late planting date (1^st June) guaranteed higher simulated fresh yield than the average in 66.7% years of 1981-2010. The study showed significant interaction among planting date, cultivar and environment in potato production in the APE in North China. Under rainfed condition, postponing planting date and selecting mid-maturity cultivar of potato was the most effective way of adapting to the warming and drying climatic conditions. This provided a reference for adapting to climate change and ensuring stable and high potato yield in the region.



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