摘要
摘要:中国雾霾成因比发达国家更为复杂，人为源氨气（NH₃）污染是中国PM_2.5指数被持续推高的重要因素，却一直被全社会所忽视。已有研究表明，人为源NH₃排放主要来自农业，农业NH₃减排是雾霾治理最经济有效的方法，因此，研究中国农业NH₃减排潜力对中国控氨治霾具有重要现实意义。本文基于各类统计年鉴和研究成果中的相关数据，参考《大气氨源排放清单编制技术指南（试行）》，构建农业NH₃减排潜力分析模型，应用排放因子法和情景分析法，测算并分析了中国2004-2013年农业NH₃排放演变和2020-2030年农业NH₃减排潜力。结果表明：1）2013年中国农业NH₃排放总量为1 193.92万t，比2004年增长18.59%。2）农业年NH₃排放总量在60万t以上的省市，2004年有河南、山东、河北和内蒙古4省，到2013年演变为河南、内蒙古、河北、山东、新疆和四川6省。3）趋势照常情景（business-as-usual，BAU）下，2020年、2025年和2030年中国农业NH₃排放将比2013年分别提高15.26%、23.60%和30.23%。4）减排情景下，2020年、2025年和2030年的中国农业NH₃排放将比BAU情景分别减少319.40万t、501.31万t和660.40万t，将比2013年分别下降11.49%、18.39%和25.08%。5）未来中国农业NH₃减排的关键取决于中国居民消费畜禽产品的数量和结构，其次是中国畜禽养殖的饲料营养水平改变。6）未来中国农业NH₃减排重点区域在河南、山东、河北、内蒙古和四川。由此可见，BAU情境下未来中国农业NH₃排放将失控，未来中国农业NH₃减排必须从大力削减重点区域排放和加速转变居民畜禽产品消费行为两方面入手。
Abstract:The causes of haze in China are more complicated than those in developed countries. Artificial ammonia (NH₃) pollution is an important factor driving the continuous increase in PM_2.5 index in China, but so widely ignored by the entire society. Existing research shows that artificial NH₃ emission come mainly from agriculture. Thus, agricultural NH₃ emission reduction is the most economic and effective method of haze governance. Therefore, research on agricultural NH₃ emission reduction potential has significant practical significance for the governance of haze in China. Based on the related data (statistical yearbook and research results), referred to as "Technical Guidelines for Preparation of Atmospheric Ammonia Emission Inventory (for Trial Implementation)", we built an analytical model of agricultural NH₃ emission reduction potential, calculated and analyzed temporal evolution of China's agricultural NH₃ emission for the period from 2004 to 2013 and the reduction potential of agricultural NH₃ emission for the period from 2020 to 2030 using emission factor method and scenario analysis. The results showed that:1) total agricultural NH₃ emission was 11.939 2 million tons in 2013, up 18.59% compared to 2004. 2) The provinces and cities where total amount of agricultural NH₃ emission was 0.6 million t·a^-1 or more in 2004 were Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Inner Mongolia provinces. By 2013, this had expanded to six provinces-Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, Xinjiang and Sichuan. 3) Under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, China's agricultural NH₃ emissions in 2020, 2025 and 2030 increased by 15.26%, 23.60% and 30.23%, respectively, over that in 2013. 4) Under abatement scenario, China's agricultural NH₃ emissions in 2020, 2025 and 2030 reduced by 3.194 million tons, 5.013 million tons and 6.604 million tons, respectively, compared with BAU scenario, which were respectively 11.49%, 18.39%, and 25.08% lower than the 2013 levels. 5) For the future, the key to China's agricultural NH₃ emission reduction depended on the quantity and consumption structure of China's household consumption of livestock and poultry products. Next, it depended on the changes in feed nutrient levels in China's livestock and poultry farming. 6) The key potential agricultural NH₃ emission reduction provinces were Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Sichuan. Thus for future control of China's agricultural NH₃ emissions under BAU scenario, the implementation of China's agricultural NH₃ emissions reduction must be done by vigorously cutting down emissions in key areas and accelerating the transformation of consumer behavior in livestock and poultry products.



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