摘要:为明确江西省2000—2015年农业循环经济的发展水平和障碍因素，本研究基于农业生产投入—利用—产出—消费—效应（IUOCE）过程，选取2001—2016年统计年鉴的5类20个评价指标数据，运用熵值法确定指标权重计算农业循环经济发展水平；运用因子贡献度、指标偏离度、障碍度3个指标对其障碍因素进行诊断。结果表明：1）2000—2015年间江西省农业循环经济的利用指标、产出指标、消费指标和效应指标发展水平在总体上都呈上升趋势，且上升幅度为产出指标>效应指标>消费指标>利用指标，投入指标呈下降趋势；2）2000—2015年江西省农业循环经济增长在总体上呈上升趋势，年均增长率为3.43%，增长较为缓慢；3）2000—2008年影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素有化肥有效利用系数、化肥使用强度、人均耕地、森林覆盖率、农民人均纯收入；2009—2015年影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素为化肥使用强度、复种指数、有效灌溉系数、农作物播种面积；4）2000—2015年投入指标和利用指标是影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素，且投入指标和利用指标的障碍度值呈逐渐增大趋势；产出指标、消费指标和效应指标的障碍度值在总体上呈减小趋势。总之，江西省农业循环经济发展水平总体呈上升趋势，影响江西省农业循环经济发展的障碍因素逐渐减少且障碍度偏高。
关键词:农业循环经济/
IUOCE过程/
熵值法/
因子贡献度/
指标偏离度/
障碍度/
障碍因子
Abstract:Lots of researches have focused on development evaluation and obstacles analysis of agricultural circular economy from perspectives of economic and social development, resource input reducing, resources reusing and environment protection based on "3R" rules while neglecting the rural consumption. In this study we introduced rural resident consumption into the index system and used the method of input-utilization-output-consumption-effect (IUOCE) process of agricultural production to clarify the developmental level and obstacles of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province in 2000-2015. Five categories (input, utilization, output, consumption and effect) including 20 evaluation indicators composed the evaluation system, and the weights of indicators were determined with the entropy method. Based on the factor contribution degree, index deviation degree and obstruction degree, the obstacle indicators of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province were diagnosed. The results showed an upward trend in the utilization indicators, output indicators, consumption indicators and effect indicators of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015. The order of rising rate was output indicators > effect indicators > consumption indicators > utilization indicators. However, input indicators had a downward trend. The growth of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province had an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 3.43% which was a relatively low rate. The main obstacle indicators that affected the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province were fertilizer effective utilization factor, fertilizer use intensity, arable land area per capita, forest cover rate and net income per farmer in 2000-2008, while they were fertilizer use intensity, multiple cropping index, effective irrigation coefficient and sown area of crops in 2009-2015. The input and utilization indicators were the main obstacle factors that affected the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015. While the obstacle degrees of input indicators and utilization indicators gradually increased in trend, those of output indicators, consumer indicators and effect indicators generally decreased in 2000-2015. In summary, the developmental level of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province was overall in an upward trend, and the obstacle indicators became less but the obstacle degree became high.
Key words:Agricultural circular economy/
IUOCE process/
Entropy method/
Factor contribution degree/
Index deviation degree/
Barrier degree/
Barrier factor
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