摘要:随着我国社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，我国居民食物消费水平和结构发生了较大变化，与食物消费密切相关的土地资源保障能力也越来越受到国际社会的广泛关注。因此，为了评价我国居民食物消费情况及其对农业土地资源需求的影响，本文依据FAO食物供给平衡数据，对中国居民1961-2013年的饮食模式变迁及其耕地需求长期动态变化进行了分析，并采用LMDI分解方法定量评价了人口、饮食模式及科技进步在不同时期对食物消费土地需求的影响。结果表明，中国居民由传统饮食模式转向消费越来越多的动物性食物和植物油等富裕型的食物消费模式；食物消费土地需求总体呈上升趋势，由1961年的1.05亿hm2·a-1增加到2013年的1.75亿hm2·a-1；食物消费土地需求的国外依赖性不断增强，这种依赖路径可能面临的全球粮食价格波动风险应引起高度警惕。LMDI分解结果显示，人口因素对土地需求的贡献效应不断减弱，科技进步并不能充分抵消人口增长和饮食模式改变带来的土地需求的增加，饮食模式已经成为影响我国食物消费土地需求的关键因素，并且这种影响在未来一段时间内仍将继续。
Abstract:With the development of China's social economy and improvement of living standard of the people, food consumption level and structure in the country have changed greatly. The ability to guarantee land resources, closely related with food consumption, has also attracted more attention in international community. Vast amounts of arable lands are needed to produce food, but land resources suitable for production of crops in China are very limited. Therefore, in order to evaluate food consumption and its impact on the demand of agricultural land resources in China, we first assessed the dynamic changes in arable land requirements for food consumption in China for the 1961-2013. Then we quantitatively examined the contributions of population growth, dietary change and technological change to land requirements for food (LRF) based on the LMDI decomposition model. The results indicated that dietary pattern of Chinese residents changed apparently to nutrient-rich from 1961 to 2013, people gradually consumed more animal food and vegetable oil other than traditional plant-based food. This induced obvious increment in LRF, which was 1.05×108 hm2·a-1 in 1961, 1.75×108 hm2·a-1 in 2013. China increasingly depended on imports to meet LRF according to the analysis of domestic production and import of food. Remarkably, this path of dependence risked the vulnerability to volatile global food prices. LMDI decomposition results revealed that population and dietary pattern were equal in contribution to LRF increase, while scientific and technological advancement contributed relatively less to decrease in LRF, which were not enough to make up for the increases in population and dietary change. And dietary change rather than the rapid growth of population had become the most critical variable determinant of LRF in China for the foreseeable future. Additionally, we found that the development in underlying factors of LRF was not often linear. Caution also seemed warranted in considerations of future LRF in China based on sequential trend assumptions. In summary, the LRF increased gradually from 1961 to 2013, and dietary pattern of China's residents was the key factor affecting LRF.
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