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中国历史GDP核算及国际比较:文献综述

清华大学 辅仁网/2017-07-08
中国历史GDP核算及国际比较:文献综述
China's Historical GDP Accounting and its International Comparison:A Literature Review 李稻葵;金星晔;管汉晖; 1:清华大学经济管理学院金融系 2:清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心 3:北京大学经济学院经济系 摘要(Abstract)：

中国古代经济发展水平究竟如何?各个朝代之间的演变趋势又是如何?还原中国古代经济发展的轨迹是研究中国经济的基础,因此,重构中国古代详实的经济数据,描绘中国历史长时段经济演变图像对于推动经济学领域研究的发展具有重要意义。基于历史国民收入核算方法(Historical National Accounting)估计GDP及经济结构,是当前国际经济史学界一个较为前沿的研究领域。其中,麦迪逊的研究影响最为广泛,但其估算方法和结果都存在一定问题,这引发了清华大学、北京大学等高校一些学者开始对此进行探讨,他们采用历史国民收入核算中的生产法,重构了中国北宋、明和清三个朝代的人均GDP及经济结构数据,对Maddison较为粗略的估算进行了补充和改进。研究结果有如下三点发现:其一,中国GDP年增长率北宋、明代和清代分别为0.88%、0.25%和0.36%,人均GDP在经历了北宋和明代较高水平的波动之后,清代进入了下降的轨迹;其二,北宋时中国的生活水平领先于世界,但是在1300年之前已经落后于意大利。虽然中国的部分富裕地区仍与欧洲的经济发达地区处于同一发展水平,但是在1750年之前,中国作为整体与欧洲的差距越来越大,"大分流"实际上在工业革命之前已经发生了;其三,最新研究成果的估算数据发现,Maddison的研究成果存在较大的偏差。本文综述历史国民收入核算的最新文献,重点在各国学者将国民收入核算的一般原则与本国历史数据结合估计历史GDP的具体方法、估计结果与此前Maddison估计的差异,并基于历史GDP数据追溯各国经济发展的轨迹,及阐释东西方经济分流的原因。

关键词(KeyWords)： 历史国民收入核算;;GDP;;大分流

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金重大项目(批准号:15ZDB130);国家社科基金一般项目(批准号:13BJL016)

作者(Author): 李稻葵;金星晔;管汉晖;

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