| 中国生物液体燃料技术经济分析及预测 |
| 赵丽丽1,2, 常世彦1,2,3, 许洁4, 张希良1,2 |
| 1. 清华大学 能源环境经济研究所, 北京 100084; 2. 清华大学 中国车用能源研究中心, 北京 100084; 3. 清华大学 低碳能源实验室, 北京 100084; 4. 中国科学院 广州能源研究所, 广州 510640 |
| Technical-economic analyses and prediction of liquid biofuels in China |
| ZHAO Lili1,2, CHANG Shiyan1,2,3, XU Jie4, ZHANG Xiliang1,2 |
| 1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 3. Laboratory of Low Carbon Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 4. Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China |
摘要:
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| 摘要该文建立了生物液体燃料出厂价格(PGP)计算模型, 在求得初始投资、原料成本、运营成本、贷款及利息、税费的基础上, 采用净现值(NPV)法, 求解产品最低出厂价格, 并给出各类成本在液体燃料不同阶段出厂价格中所占的比例。该文选取了17种具有代表性的技术路线进行分析和预测, 旨在为科研和产业发展提供指导, 为国家制定产业发展政策及产业布局提供决策支持。研究结果表明: 1.5代生物液体燃料出厂价格对原料成本高度敏感, 占54%~90%, 以非粮淀粉和糖类为原料的燃料乙醇和以小桐子为原料的生物柴油或航空煤油可在2020-2025年之间实现与化石燃料相比具有竞争力; 对于2代生物液体燃料, 原料成本及运营成本对出厂价格的贡献基本相当, 分别占13%~40%和21%~48%, 可在2020-2030年间实现成本的大幅下降, 2025年前后与化石燃料相比具备竞争力; 对于3代生物液体燃料, 其出厂价格对原料成本最为敏感, 占64%~96%, 2040-2045年之间才能够与化石燃料相竞争。税费优惠政策对生物液体燃料的发展至关重要, 可使大部分燃料提前10~15 a与化石燃料相比具有竞争力; 同时, 对化石燃料征收碳税将有助于生物燃料更早实现其竞争优势, 但近中期所能发挥的作用有限。本研究建议政府合理布局生物液体燃料产业发展, 在原料育种和原料收储运体系建设、生物燃料技术研发与示范方面给予支持; 在一定时期内对生物液体燃料免征消费税和所得税, 实行增值税即征即退; 对化石燃料征收碳税。 | |||
| 关键词 ：工业技术经济分析,生物液体燃料,出厂价格(PGP),预测,政策,税费优惠,碳税 | |||
| Abstract：A plant-gate price (PGP) estimation model was used in technical-economic analyses of 17 liquid biofuel production processes. The net present value (NPV) method was used to determine the PGPs of biofuels with a finite internal rate of return based on the costs for total investment, feedstock, operation, taxes, fees, and loans. The results will help policy makers formulate incentive policies for research and development (R&D) of liquid biofuels in China. The results indicate that the PGPs of 1.5th generation biofuel products are highly sensitive to feedstock cost (54%-90%). Bioethanol based on non-grain starches and sugars, and biofuels based on jatropha will be competitive with fossil fuels by 2020-2025. Most of 2nd generation biofuel PGPs will drop during 2020-2030 and will be competitive with fossil fuels around 2025. The feedstock cost, 13%-40%, and operating expenses, 21%-48%, contribute almost equally to the PGPs. In the mid-and long-terms, the priorities should be to develop 2nd generation fuels. The PGP of 3rd generation biofuels are the most sensitive to the feedstock cost (64%-96%) and will not be able to compete with fossil fuels until 2040-2045. Tax preferences will be critical to accelerating the growth of biofuels. Most biofuels will be competitive with fossil fuels 10-15 years earlier if the value-added tax (VAT), consumption tax and income tax are exempted. They will be competitive with fossil fuels even earlier as if a carbon tax is imposed on fossil fuels. However, the effect of the carbon tax will not be significant in the near-and mid-terms. This research suggests that the government develops a long-term plan and take action towards the sound development of biofuels by promoting feedstock breeding, helping establish a cost-effective feedstock collection, storage and transportation system, and support R&D and demonstration projects of biofuel conversion technologies. Policies including tax preference and carbon tax are also suggested to accelerate the biofuel development. | |||
| Key words：industrial technical-economic analysesliquid biofuelsplant-gate price (PGP)predictionpolicytax preferencecarbon tax | |||
| 收稿日期: 2015-01-14 出版日期: 2015-11-09 | |||
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| 通讯作者:张希良, 教授, E-mail: zhang_xl@mail.tsinghua.edu.cnE-mail: zhang_xl@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn | |||
| 引用本文: |
| 赵丽丽, 常世彦, 许洁, 张希良. 中国生物液体燃料技术经济分析及预测[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(9): 1023-1035. ZHAO Lili, CHANG Shiyan, XU Jie, ZHANG Xiliang. Technical-economic analyses and prediction of liquid biofuels in China. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(9): 1023-1035. |
| 链接本文: |
| http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I9/1023 |
图表:
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| 表1 生物液体燃料列表及类别划分 |
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| 表2 现金流出项目及其计算方法 |
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| 表3 情景设计 |
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| 表4 BAU 及TP情景下的税收政策 |
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| 表5 模型主要参数与假设 |
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| 表6 生物液体燃料原料成本[19](2010年不变价) |
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| 表7 生物燃料出厂价格计算输入数据[18](BAU情景,2010年) |
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| 表8 生物燃料出厂价格计算输入数据[18](BAU情景,2015年) |
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| 表9 生物燃料出厂价格计算输入数据[18](BAU情景,2020年) |
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| 表10 生物燃料出厂价格计算输入数据[18](BAU情景,2030年) |
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| 表11 生物燃料出厂价格计算输入数据[18](BAU情景,2050年) |
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| 表12 中国宏观经济数据及化石燃料消费税或碳税数据 |
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| 图1 汽油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 图2 柴油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 图3 航空煤油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 图4 汽油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 图5 柴油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 图6 航空煤油及其替代燃料出厂价格 |
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| 表14 生物液体燃料出厂价格构成(BAU 情景) |
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| 图7 生物液体燃料出厂价格构成 (H1L2-BAU 情景,2020年) |
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