摘要:量化评价管理绩效能为湿地公园管理措施的优化提供理论支持。选取山东省68个国家湿地公园作为研究对象，从自然环境、社会经济角度出发，选择植被覆盖率、废水排放量等8个指标构建指标体系。结合相关数据，基于熵理论定量评价国家级湿地公园的管理绩效。结果表明，（1）山东省整体总熵流为负（-0.3018），其中41个湿地公园为负熵流，系统趋于稳定，管理绩效提升；（2）正熵流主要来自废水排放量（0.0854±0.0434），负熵流则主要来自环保投入（-0.0802±0.0392）；（3）国民生产总值和熵流呈现负相关关系，而第一产业产值比重和第二产业产值比重均和熵流呈现正相关关系。综合经济发展和熵流评价结果，2个市的湿地公园面临高管理风险，其中菏泽市需要引起注意；山东省近海和海岸湿地的管理绩效较低，且面临高管理风险，应当优先制定、开展保护治理规划。



Abstract:Quantitative assessment of management effectiveness is important to provide reliable theoretical support for improving management measures of wetland parks. In this research, we developed an evaluation workflow composited by 8 indicators such as socio-economic and environmental sustainable, and applied entropy theory into quantitative assessment of management effectiveness of 68 National Wetland Parks in Shandong Province. The results showed that (1) Total entropy flow of 68 National Wetland Parks in Shandong Province was -0.3018 and 41 out of 68 were negative, indicating the system tended to be stable and management effectiveness are increased. (2) Positive entropy flow mainly contributed by Effluent volume, while negative values mainly came from expenditure for environment protection. (3) Gross national product and entropy flow were negatively correlated, while the proportion of the primary and secondary industry GDP were positively correlated respectively. Based on economic development situation and entropy flow analysis, we concluded that two cities' management of National Wetland Parks were under high risk in Shangdong Province, especially Heze city. And there exists low effective and high-risk management in coastal wetlands in Shangdong Province, which needs local government's foresight conservation planning.





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