摘要:模拟多情景下白洋淀流域土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值改变，对保障流域生态安全和提升区域生态系统服务价值能力具有重要意义。选取白洋淀流域上下游所涉及的河北省相关县级行政区为研究区，以1990、2000、2010、2020年4期遥感影像及统计年鉴为基础数据，分析和测算30年间白洋淀流域的土地利用与生态系统服务价值变化，在此基础上利用CA-Markov模型模拟2035年趋势延续、均衡发展和统筹发展等3种情景下研究区土地利用变化情况，估算各情景下生态系统服务价值，利用网格工具可视化表达3种情景下生态系统服务价值的空间分布状况以及集聚程度。研究结果表明：①1990-2020年白洋淀流域土地利用变化最明显的特征是耕地面积锐减，建设用地迅速扩张，30年间耕地面积减少了122776.99hm²，建设用地增加了167369.74hm²。②1990-2020年研究区生态系统服务价值分别为852.59亿元、788.26亿元、796.95亿元和784.68亿元，总体呈波动下降的趋势。③在趋势延续、均衡发展和统筹发展等3种模拟情景下，生态系统服务价值依次为785.36亿元、807.26亿元、812.46亿元。研究区生态系统服务价值整体呈现西北高东南低的空间分布特征。④ESV值的热点和冷点分布范围较大且集聚性较强，热点区域主要集中在西北部山地区域，冷点区域主要分布在研究区东南部平原地区以及研究区西北部的部分区域。模拟白洋淀流域未来土地利用变化趋势，探寻不同情境下生态系统服务价值的响应有利于构建流域国土空间开发保护新格局，为今后全面推进白洋淀流域的可持续发展提供科学基础和决策参考。



Abstract:Simulating the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in Baiyangdian Basin under multi scenario is of great significance to ensure the ecological security of the basin and enhance the ability of regional ecosystem service value. Based on the Remote Sensing Image and Statistics Yearbook of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, choosing county-level administrative districts in the upper and lower reaches of Baiyangdian Basin as the study area, this paper analyzed and calculated the land use and ecosystem service value changes in Baiyangdian Basin over the past 30 years. Moreover, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate land use change in the study area under three scenarios, including trend continuation, balanced development, and overall development in 2035. This paper estimated the ecosystem service value for each scenario, and the grid tools were used to visualized the spatial distribution and concentration of ecosystem service value under three scenarios. The results showed that, ①The most obvious feature of land use change in Baiyangdian Basin from 1990 to 2020 was the sharp reduction of cultivated land area and the rapid expansion of construction land. The cultivated land area had decreased by 122776.99hm², while construction land increased by 167369.74hm² in the past 30 years. ②From 1990 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in the study area was 85.259 billion yuan, 78.826 billion yuan, 79.695 billion yuan and 78.468 billion yuan respectively, presenting a fluctuating downward trend. ③Under the three simulation scenarios of trend continuation, balanced development and overall development, the value of ecosystem services was 78.536 billion yuan, 80.726 billion yuan and 81.246 billion yuan respectively. The ecosystem service value in the study area presented the spatial distribution characteristics of high in Northwest and low in Southeast. ④The hot spots and cold spots of ecosystem service value were distributed in a large range and had strong agglomeration. The hot spots were mainly concentrated in the mountainous area in the northwest, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the plain area in the southeast of the study area and some areas in the northwest of the study area. Simulating the future land use change trend of Baiyangdian Basin and exploring the response of ecosystem service value under different situations is conducive to building a new pattern of land spatial development and protection of the basin. This paper provides a scientific basis and decision-making reference for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Baiyangdian Basin in the future.





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