摘要:经济发展与人口集聚引起的土地利用变化对一个地区的生态环境影响显著，生境质量评价在一定程度上可以反映区域生物多样性的状况。分析地区生境质量与社会经济、人口密度的关系，能够为区域生态安全及可持续发展提供科学依据。运用InVEST模型，以粤港澳大湾区2005、2010、2015、2018年四期土地利用数据分析生境质量的时空演变特征，结合社会经济及人口分布数据探究各地区城市发展与生境质量的权衡关系，并预测2030年大湾区不同情景下生境质量状况。结果表明：（1）2005-2018年粤港澳大湾区整体生境质量逐年降低，呈现出中部低、四周高的环状分布，生境破碎、建设用地增加是生境质量下降的主要原因。（2）珠三角九市生境质量与地区总GDP呈弱负相关，与第一产业产值呈中等正相关，与第二产业产值呈中等负相关，与第三产业产值呈弱正相关。（3）粤港澳大湾区生境质量与人口密度存在较大的不平衡，最主要的空间为高生境质量-低人口密度、低生境质量-高人口密度两种类型。（4）通过空间管制分区，预测2030年大湾区规划保护情景下大湾区平均生境质量较2018上升0.04，达到0.599，生境质量有明显改善。



Abstract:Land use change caused by economic development and population agglomeration has a significant impact on the ecological environment of a region. Habitat quality assessment can reflect the status of regional biodiversity to a certain extent. Analyzing the relationship between regional habitat quality and socio-economic and population density can provide scientific basis for regionally ecological security and sustainable development. In this study, the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality using four phases of land use data in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018. The study combined the data of socio-economic and population density to explore the trade-off relationship between urban development and habitat quality in various regions, and predicted the habitat quality of the Bay Area in 2030 under different scenarios. The results show that: (1) from 2005 to 2018, the overall habitat quality of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area decreased year by year, indicating a ring-shaped distribution with a low central and high surrounding area. (2) The habitat quality of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta has a weakly negative correlation with total regional GDP, a medium positive correlation with the output value of the primary industry, a medium negative correlation with the output value of the secondary industry, and a weakly positive correlation with the output value of the tertiary industry. (3) There is a large imbalance between habitat quality and population density in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The main spaces are two types: high habitat quality-low population density, low habitat quality-high population density. (4) Through space control zoning, it is predicted that the average habitat quality of the Greater Bay Area will increase by 0.04 to 0.599 under the planned protection of the Greater Bay Area in 2030.





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